524
FXUS61 KILN 312324
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
724 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increase severe wording for Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe weather and flooding possible on Saturday, lower potential
for Sunday.

2) Off and on thunderstorm chances through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Dry conditions will continue the remainder of the day today. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms will move into the region overnight and
through the morning daytime hours.

The more concerning time period for severe weather and flooding
potential will be during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday
as a low pressure system nears the area. There is decent instability
and low level shear. LCLs are also expected to be low. While the
threat is conditional, there is the potential for a few short lived
tornadoes to occur in this environment. The greatest threat area for
tornadoes will be eastern Indiana, portions of northern Kentucky and
into southwest Ohio.  Another potential threat will be damaging
winds, however the DCAPE environment is not overly impressive.

The greatest threat area for flooding will also be the same area as
tornadoes. While moisture propagation vectors indicate that storms
will be moving, there is the potential for multiple rounds of storms
in the same area.

Will continue to highlight the severe threat and flooding in the HWO
and other messaging platforms. There will be additional thunderstorm
on Sunday. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected on
Sunday. The greater severe threat will be east of the area, however
cannot rule out a strong to severe storm. In addition, localized
heavy rain and flooding will be possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Off and on thunderstorm chances will continue into next week. There
is still uncertainty in the upper low. There are varying solutions
with some showing the low being more progressive while others show
the low meandering near the area and keeping thunderstorm chances
longer around the region. There is more confidence and a lean to keep
precipitation chances around longer into the week. After this system
does move out of the area there will still be the potential for
another system to work into the area later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High and mid level clouds will thicken up overnight ahead of an
approaching low pressure system. The low will move slowly east toward
our area through the day on Saturday. An initial wave of showers and
a few thunderstorms will likely move in from the west late tonight
through Saturday morning, mainly affecting the western TAF sites. A
better chance for showers and thunderstorms will then develop
through the afternoon hours, possibly lingering into Saturday
evening.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR conditions are possible at
times through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...JGL