931
FXUS63 KIND 150140
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
940 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood watch through 10PM for the I-70 corridor and points to the
south

- Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be the primary threat
through this evening

- Cold air funnels may be possible today

- Active weather pattern next week with daily rain/storm chances

- Trending warmer late week with upper 80s likely

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Majority of the forcing related to the mid level low is now south
of central Indiana, along with 90 percent of the precipitation.
Still, a lingering surface boundary remains, allowing for a few
pockets of moderate rain. Lapse rates have decreased significantly
this evening, this along with high freezing levels will limit any
lighting production significantly within these convective cells
this evening. For these reasons, the Flood Watch will be expired
at 10PM EDT.

The main update to the forecast, was the addition of patchy fog
for most of central Indiana late tonight into tomorrow morning.
Strong upward latent heat fluxes along with an already moist
boundary layer will aid in near surface saturation. Currently,
widespread dense fog is not expected due to low stratus limiting
diurnal cooling, but widespread 2-5SM fog with pockets of 1SM or
less visibility is likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

ACARS soundings from KIND show a very moist airmass with PWAT values
around 1.90 inches with moderate instability /SBCAPE 1500-2000
J/KG/. Skinny CAPE profiles support meager updraft intensity and
therefore not as much lightning in this moist/tropical-like
environment except in areas of cell mergers. However, "cold-air"
funnels will remain possible this afternoon with the stronger more
isolated cells thanks to moderate 3km CAPE /120-150 j/kg/ and decent
surface vorticity in the area.

The expectation is the synoptic scale boundary and outflow/cell
mergers will continue to support a threat for excessive rainfall
amounts /2-4 inches/ across portions of central Indiana /generally
along and south of I-70/ through the remainder of the afternoon. We
have issued a flood watch for this portion of central Indiana until
10 pm EDT. Shower/thunderstorm activity will begin to diminish with
some loss of heating and convective overturning occurring across
most of the region by late afternoon/early evening.

Precipitation chances diminish markedly overnight with diminishing
instability. However, forecast soundings support sufficient CAPE to
keep isolated convective showers lingering in the SE 1/2 through the
early morning hours...with little to no precipitation threat in the
NW 1/2 of the forecast area. Drying/subsidence in the mid levels
associated with shortwave ridging moving out of the MS valley into
the Ohio Valley will limit coverage of any renewed convective
development to the far SE portions of Central Indiana during the mid-
late afternoon hours. Overnight low temperatures will be slightly
above normal thanks to high moisture content with daytime highs on
Sunday near normal /lower 80s/ thanks to scattered to broken cloud
cover.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Sunday night Through Tuesday.

By Sunday night the precipitation that will have impacted central
Indiana through the weekend will be coming to an end with the low
pressure system exiting from the southeast. There will be a brief
window of dry time from Sunday night into early Monday before
another low pressure system moves in from the southwest, but this
precipitation should remain limited to the southern counties as the
low remains weak and should track just south of the Ohio River.

Some model guidance tries to push the low further north Monday night
into early Tuesday, but for now that looks to be the outlier. If the
low deepens further than currently expected as the NAM shows, a
TROWAL is likely to form with an axis of heavy rain as much as 2-3
inches but again that looks to be on the unlikely side. Temperatures
will remain near normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in
the mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday Through Saturday.

A stronger upper level low looks increasingly likely mid to late
week with precipitation as early as Wednesday but more likely
Thursday as the low moves in from the northwest. Strong
southwesterly flow ahead of the low will advect warm and moist air
into the area which will allow for another round of moderate to
locally heavy rain. There remains timing differences between the
deterministic and ensemble guidance, but confidence is highest late
Wednesday into Thursday. The flow will then shift northwesterly
Friday into the weekend with warming temperatures as the ridge
begins to build. Ridge-riding thunderstorms looked likely earlier in
the week but models have trended towards a stronger ridge which
would keep storm complexes north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Impacts:

- LIFR conditions at KBMG in early morning improving by early
  afternoon. IFR conditions elsewhere this morning.

Discussion:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible at KBMG over the next
couple hours. Low ceilings will move in overnight starting at low
MVFR and reducing to IFR. LIFR ceilings are possible at KBMG for a
few hours. Most areas should see patchy 2-5SM vis reductions in
the morning as well. in the evening with low vis and mist
occurring in the early morning. All conditions will clear up by
tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for INZ053>057-060>065.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Updike
SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Updike