448
FXUS63 KIND 101830
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
230 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated storms end this evening

- Briefly dry then scattered showers and storms return late Friday
  into Saturday

- Cooler Friday with warmer temperatures returning this weekend into
  early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Rest of This Afternoon through Tonight...

The current round of forcing is producing light rain across much of
central Indiana this afternoon. Continued likely PoPs most areas as
this rain moves through.

With the northern part of an upper trough axis still moving in,
additional showers may develop later this afternoon, so kept PoPs
going most areas before 00Z. An isolated thunderstorm is possible,
but generally just showers are expected.

The upper trough will weaken this evening, but there looks to be
enough forcing to continue PoPs across the southern half of the area
through the evening.

Patchy fog will develop tonight thanks to the continued moist
atmosphere and light winds. With clouds hanging around, widespread
fog is not currently expected.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s north to middle 60s south.

Friday and Saturday...

Surface high pressure will keep much of the area dry through the day
Friday. Friday night into Saturday, a weak upper trough will drift
northeast across the area. Moisture will increase as the upper
trough moves through.

Forcing from the trough will bring some scattered to perhaps
numerous showers to the area, especially south and east where the
better forcing will be. Will go with mainly chance Pops (as best
forcing will be east of the area), with perhaps some low likely PoPs
in the far east.

Highs on Friday will be mainly in the lower 80s. If rain coverage
remains low enough, highs on Saturday may reach the middle to upper
80s.

Sunday and Monday...

The persistent upper ridge will attempt to sneak back into the area.
Before it does, some upper impulses may generate isolated convection
on Sunday, but confidence is low.

High temperatures will depend on how far the ridge gets into the
area. Highs near 90 are possible where the ridge rules, with 80s
elsewhere. The most likely locations to see near 90 will be areas in
the southwest forecast area. Guidance continues to waffle though on
the higher temperatures, so confidence remains low to medium.

Tuesday and beyond...

Larger upper troughing developing across the northern part of the
country will bring a cold front into the area Tuesday into Thursday.
The front looks to slow down as it encounters the upper ridge, but
how far south it gets depends on how far north the ridge`s influence
extends.

For now will broadbrush mainly chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon into
Thursday.

Temperatures around 90 may be able to be advected into most areas
ahead of the front on Tuesday, before the front and potential
clouds/rain keep readings in the 80s for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Impacts:

- Showers at times through the afternoon
- MVFR ceilings at times in the showers, especially at KBMG
- Fog developing overnight

Discussion:

Showers will continue at times through the afternoon, but visibility
will generally be VFR. MVFR ceilings are possible in the showers,
especially at KBMG. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out,
but odds are too low to mention.

A few showers may linger past 00Z, mainly at KBMG. VFR ceilings will
persist, but MVFR visibility in fog is likely at most sites
overnight. Visibility at KIND should remain VFR.

Fog will mix out early Friday, but VFR ceilings generally at or
below 6000ft will persist.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50