951
FXUS63 KIND 281855
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
155 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Storm Warning/Advisory for much of central Indiana

- Snow amounts of 4-6 inches in the Warning area, 1-4 in the Advisory

- Additional snow chances Monday night into Tuesday

- Wind chills in the teens at night through most of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 155 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Tonight.

High clouds will begin to move in as early as the evening hours
tonight ahead of the arrival of the first significant winter storm
of the season. With the dry near surface conditions, expect to see
temperatures quickly drop this evening before beginning to level out
as the clouds move in. Overnight lows will likely end up in the low
20s which will help to prime the surface for accumulating snow
Saturday morning into afternoon.

There will be a weak band of snow moving northeast during the late
overnight and early morning hours across the northwestern portions
of central Indiana, but much of this may not reach the ground due to
the very light nature, dry low levels, and the fact that the better
isentropic lift doesn`t arrive until later into the morning.

Saturday and Saturday Night.

The main focus for the short term period will be tracking the
accumulating snow threat for Saturday. Synoptically, an upper level
shortwave will push southeast out of the Northern Rockies with weak
southeasterly surface flow ahead of the arrival of the low. As the
low nears, both surface and LLJ winds will begin to ramp up with the
strongest winds aloft expected during the evening hours. The low
track continues to look well to the northwest of central Indiana
with the main question being the strength of the WAA and its impacts
to surface temperatures and any warm nose aloft.

Some of the higher resolution modeling is beginning to pick up on
what we`ve been discussing over the last few days with stronger WAA
in the area southeast of the low helping to bring snow ratios lower
and an earlier transition to rain. The positive snow depth change
among even the more aggressive models remains much more modest at 4-
6 inches which makes sense in a marginal thermodynamic situation as
temperatures will hover around freezing.

Travel impacts look increasingly likely during the afternoon and
evening hours Saturday. Overall confidence is fairly high in the
Covington to Muncie and points to the northwest area as there is
good model agreement in mostly snow. Reasonable expectations for
that area at this time looks to be 4-7 inches. Further south along
the I-70 corridor remains the area of greatest uncertainty with a
wider range of outcomes. We`re leaning towards the warmer solution
with a faster changeover to rain and lower snow ratios which would
put much of the area in a 1-3 or 2-4 range with the lower numbers on
the southern side and higher to the north. Near Indy there will
likely be a fairly stark difference between the northern and
southern suburbs. Further south total snowfall of 0.5-2 inches looks
reasonable, but again we are leaning towards the lower-end scenario.
Much of the impacts will be over a 6-8 hour window beginning
sometime in the early afternoon hours with impacts lessening towards
midnight as temperatures warm.

During the overnight, rain will gradually become the more
predominant precipitation type, especially along and south of I-70.
This will also lead to some melting of the fallen snow and may make
it difficult to get accurate storm totals as folks measure in the
morning.

For headlines we`ve upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning
across the northwest where we have the overall greatest confidence
with the understanding that some of the areas may not reach the
typical 5 inch snow criteria. With the holiday weekend travel and
the potential for the higher end amounts. We`ve upgraded the
southern extent of the Watch to an Advisory where we have lower
confidence on totals with the potential that the far northern ends
may get close to 5 inches, but the southern extent has a low threat.
Then to the south of the original watch we have also included much
of south central Indiana where we expect amounts of at least 2
inches.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 155 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Sunday through Friday...

Overall pattern through the upcoming extended periods remains
progressive with a series of systems that will bring precipitation
to the Ohio Valley, along with reinforcing shots of cold air
advection. This could result in additional periods where
precipitation falls as snow, with some accumulations possible mainly
for the Tuesday period.

Sunday...Rapid departure to the surface low, quickly exiting the
region to the northeast. In its wake will be strong cold air
advection from northwesterly winds, still producing a tight pressure
gradient and translating into a blustery day and falling
temperatures from the potent 850mb thermal trough driving south.
Temps will struggle once the frontal boundary arrives at the surface
with generally temps in the 20s by midday and wind chill values in
the teens. The deeper moisture will peel off to the northeast, but
enough moisture could linger coupled with some vertical ascent to
allow some flurries or light snow to be scattered across Central
Indiana Sun through midday. The surface ridge will continue to slide
southeast Sun evening, which will help to reduce the isallobaric
gradient allowing winds to diminish with skies likely becoming
mostly clear. This wills the stage for a free-fall to temperatures,
and with a fresh snowfall for many locations north of Indy, expect
lows to easily radiate into the single digits to lower teens.

Monday into Tuesday... Monday is the benign weather day with surface
ridging overhead providing a cold/dry day for Central Indiana and
minimal gradient allowing winds to be light and variable. But as
mentioned earlier the progressive flow to the upper level jet will
quickly usher the surface ridge to the east by Mon ngt. A potent
trough axis will be digging south through the plains, as surface
flow starts to turn southerly across Indiana. Moistening parcels
with steadily strengthening isentropic lift will present some precip
type challenges early Tue morning through the day Tue. The wildcard
is with how deep the trough axis slides south, which could easily
shift the track of the next system further south/southeast before it
congeals into a more robust synoptic system. But at the present time
guidance still indicates a large precip footprint across Indiana and
temps likely cool enough to have parcels present as snow/dendrites,
but still possible some partial melting due to the increased
isentropic ascent and easily some rain or possible freezing rain
enters the setup potential. The key for how Tue unfolds and the
precip type will hinge on the depth of the cold air and forcing
aloft.

Wednesday through Friday... The continued progressive flow to the
upper level pattern remains through the end of next week, with the
surface trough quickly sliding east of the region on Wed. This will
result in weak ridging skirting the Ohio Valley while the 500mb
pattern remains flat/zonal. The one bright spot for the second half
of the upcoming week is that guidance continues to lean towards a
scenario that the ridging will expand across the region. This will
lead to perhaps a second dry day, although temperatures continue to
be sub-seasonal but with lighter winds it will likely be more
tolerable. Friday ensembles continue to demonstrate ridging pushing
east and a return flow, southerly, component to winds. This will
likely allow warm air advection back into the region to close the
week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1159 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Impacts:

-MVFR vsbys as early as 12Z, quickly becoming IFR to LIFR
-MVFR cigs towards 18Z, potentially becoming IFR afterwards
-Southeasterly wind gusts to 20kts Saturday afternoon

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through tonight with westerly winds becoming
more light and variable overnight. They will then shift more
southeasterly towards mid-morning with a few gusts to 20kts through
the afternoon. Snow will begin to impact vsbys as early as 12Z at
LAF but more likely after 15Z with more significant impacts in the
18Z to 02Z timeframe. Cigs will also drop as the snow rates increase
but there is some uncertainty as to whether they reach IFR.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for
INZ021-028>031-035>041-043>047.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for INZ042-048-049-051>057-060>065-067.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Beach
AVIATION...White