091
FXUS63 KIND 141338
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
938 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms through much of the weekend

- Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be the primary threat
  through this evening

- Cold air funnels may be possible today

- Near daily risk for showers and isolated t-storms through much of
  next week...severe storm potential for Wednesday-Thursday

- Warm and muggy conditions are expected through the upcoming week
  with partial relief to less humid conditions in the late week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

As of early this morning, shower coverage has gradually begun to
decrease for much of the forecast area  but a swath of moderate to
locally heavy rain continues across an axis from north of Rockville
up to northern Madison county. Flash flooding is ongoing across
portions of this area with radar estimates and morning CoCoRaHS
reports showing amounts that locally are in excess of 6 inches.
Increased the POPs across this area based on the latest radar and hi-
resolution guidance with a gradual decrease towards the early
afternoon.

The surface low is currently situated over southern Illinois and
will slowly move eastward into the afternoon. Expectations are that
additional shower development will pick up later this morning into
the early afternoon along a broad area of ascent across southern
Indiana. Thunder chances will be fairly minimal with moist adiabatic
lapse rates and and little shear aloft.

Otherwise no major changes were needed to the forecast with
conditions evolving as expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Slow moving showers will continue for much of today, as a low slinks
through the Ohio Valley, before finally pushing off to the SE by
tonight. Overnight, showers were persistently draped across the
northern portion of the forecast area. CAMs are showing this will
continue into the morning hours, possibly letting up on the
intensity some after daybreak. PWats however will remain above
1.5" through much of the day, so even if coverage is less,
isolated heavy rain and localized flooding will remain possible.
Those in north- central Indiana should be especially cautious of
any flooding that may have formed overnight, and heed road closure
signs if they exist.

With the low nearby and very weak flow aloft, there is a heightened
risk for cold air funnels today. Lapse rates will be nearly moist
adiabatic with very low LCLs which combined with the weak near
surface convergence near the front will create nearly ideal
conditions. With numerous outdoor activities, will be issuing an SPS
to highlight the threat for cold air funnels.

The front associated with the low should then finally push SE around
midday to the afternoon hours, finally moving most of the
precipitation out of the forecast area tonight.

Despite the passage of a front and winds shifting from southerly to
more northerly by tonight, there will be very little effect on the
temperatures. Highs today will again range from the mid 70s to near
80 while lows tonight will be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Next week will continue the recent humid and seasonably warm pattern
as Indiana sits between a upper zonal pattern retracted north...and
subtropical surface high pressure slowly building over the
southeastern CONUS that will maintain muggy conditions via southerly
flow out of this air mass.  A more pronounced northern stream H500
short wave around the Thursday timeframe is expected to cross the
Great Lakes before a subsequent broad upper ridge builds northward
over the vast majority of the US and into the Midwest as the long
term period ends.

Sunday should be dry for most locations, although a few, mainly
afternoon showers/t-storms will be possible south and east of
Indianapolis.  Diurnally driven, yet mainly only widely scattered
convection is expected Monday into the mid-week.  Greater chances of
organized storms, or at least appreciable rainfall exist for late
Wednesday into Thursday when the tail of the passing northern wave
should focus anomalously high precipitable water values over 2.00
inches.  The potential for severe weather may hinge on whether
impressive instability can linger long enough to combine with shear
arriving from the northwestern Midwest.  Perhaps a brief window for
moderated humidity towards the end of the workweek before the muggy
pattern returns, and perhaps with higher temperatures as the upper
ridge builds into Indiana.

Afternoon maximums in the 80s will be the rule per H850 temperatures
in the 15-20 degrees Celsius range, yet higher humidity will boost
heat index values above 90F at times, especially for Tuesday and
Wednesday when moderate to robust southwesterly breezes will bring
dewpoints to near 75 degrees.  Overnight lows within the 65-70F
range is expected for most locations.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 706 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Impacts:

- IFR/MVFR CIGs improving to at least MVFR today...and falling back
  to MVFR/IFR tonight at most terminals
- -SHRA at KLAF this morning...and all other terminals this PM
  with isolated TSRA possible...which may include MVFR visibility
- Wind shift from S to NE during the day today from north to south

Discussion:

Scattered showers and low clouds will persist across the area
throughout much of the forecast period as a weak boundary slowly
crosses the region from north to south. MVFR and IFR ceilings will
persist into midday to the afternoon before finally briefly
improving to low VFR at at least KHUF/KBMG. Winds sustained under
10KT will gradually shift to northeasterly as the boundary passes
today.

Chances for thunder will be greatest during the afternoon, with any
cells isolated to widely scattered.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...AGM