502
FXUS64 KJAN 091824
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
124 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail
   through this weekend.

 - Limited fire danger conditions are expected across portions of
   Northwest Mississippi, Northeast Louisiana, and Southeast
   Arkansas this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

In the wake of a weak cold front, drier air is already advecting
into our region and will continue to do so through the weekend as
upper ridging builds just west of our area. Though this dry regime
will still allow for seasonably warm days, with highs ranging
from near normal to slightly above normal, it will also make for
cooler overnights and mornings. Cooler, meaning...closer to
average for this time of year. We`ll take what we can get. Heading
into next week, the upper ridge axis will shift only slightly
eastward, maintaining surface high pressure across the Deep South.
This will result in continued dry weather conditions, though
temperatures will trend upward into the middle of next week as
surface trajectories take on a more southerly component. Overall,
in spite of the relief behind this front, temperatures will remain
near to above normal through the forecast period. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this afternoon and outside
of some scattered low clouds overnight, expect VFR conditions
through the period. The winds generally from the north at 5-10
kts will prevail through the TAF period at all sites. Some gusts
up to around 20 kts possible most likely at KGLH. /15/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Given the combination of potential for low RHs in the 25-30
percent range, wind gusts to around 15-20 kt, and antecedent dry
conditions this afternoon, we will highlight a limited fire
danger threat for northwestern portions of the area. RHs are
not forecast to be as low tomorrow, but given the upcoming
extended period of dry weather, fire danger potential will be
monitored closely during the coming days. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  60  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      86  59  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     84  57  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   89  63  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       85  56  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    82  55  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     82  57  83  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/15