738
FXUS64 KJAN 100306 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
906 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Freeze warnings are in effect for central to northern
    portions of the area tonight, and for the entire forecast area
    Monday night.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Rest of tonight...

A cold and blustery night is on tap overnight. Evening surface
analysis indicate 1038mb surface high over the northern Plains,
with surface ridging quickly building into the Gulf Coast region.
This is leading to strong gradient northerly flow across the area,
with temperatures currently falling into the upper 30s near
Little Rock AR and into Memphis TN area. Temperatures will drop
below freezing overnight, with this line extending further
southward for up to a couple hours. Based on that and NBM probs
nearly 60 to 90 percent of a freeze reaching these areas, extended
the Freeze Warning tonight to include Franklin and Tensas LA and
Jefferson/Claiborne MS across Copiah, Simpson, Smith, Jasper and
Clarke MS. Lows have continued to trend downward in recent runs of
the NBM, with even consensus of raw guidance trended colder. This
would typically favor blend of raw guidance due to continued
gusty gradient winds overnight. Based on that and falling below
freezing for up to 4 to 7 hours and even as low as 25F to 28F
degrees, we have added a Significant for Freeze tonight in the
local hazard outlook (Morehouse, West and East Carroll LA and
Issaquena, Sharkey, Yazoo, Madison, Leake, Neshoba and Kemper MS)
with the Elevated expanded southward to the Freeze Warning area
and Limited southward into the Hwy 84 corridor for areas near
freezing. Surface pressure gradient should remain around 5mb, so
gusty winds around 8 to 15mph will continue into the overnight
hours. Wind chills will be quite blustery by Monday morning in
the low to mid 20s, with upper teens north of I-20 and into the
Golden Triangle. Frost will not be a concern due to continued
gradient wind overnight. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Through The Work Week...

The major point of concern/feature frigid cold front, the
strongest/reinforcing portion of which has already managed to clear
our area of responsibility, and now lingers off the Gulf coast. This
has brought some gusty winds throughout all forecast zones, ranging
in the mid 20s, which will continue for the rest of the day. Over
the next couple of days wind speeds will remain higher than normal.
This, along with fairly dry conditions has prompted a Limited fire
weather graphic valid for the early week for the entire area.

The most significant impact, however, will be temperatures
plummeting to at or below freezing overnight tonight and as the
frigid air mass following behind this front continues to funnel in
from the north, even colder temperatures are expected Monday
night into Tuesday morning. All counties/parishes will be below
freezing ranging around 25 kts. There is some model guidance that
previously was trending a few degrees warmer than the MOS,
however; even those resolutions have fallen in line with the low
temperature forecast. That is to say confidence is high and there
is little variance across all relevant outputs for the expected
lows. The lowest projected high temperatures, ranging in the mid
to high 40s, are forecast Monday afternoon.

We do see southerly flow returning to the area Tuesday afternoon
which will allow for temperatures to rebound into the mid 50s.
Overnight lows for Tuesday night bottom out above freezing, hovering
in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Finally, Wednesday onwards we see a
full recovery of our temperatures and swing back into the mid 70s
for the rest of the week, with lows in the 50s.

Next Weekend...

Guidance is showing an ejection of a shortwave upstream of us which
will track over the area sometime this weekend. This will bring some
much needed rainfall, with totals of about half an inch over the two
day period. There doesn`t appear to quite enough energy to fuel any
thunderstorm activity but as always with features a week out
specifics are a bit too hazy to message with a high degree of
confidence. /OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR flight categories will prevail through the next 24 hours. Gusty
northerly winds will lighten, still just around 10 mph, before
picking back up after 10/14-16Z Monday. Winds will be gusty Monday,
around 15-20mph sustained, gusts up to around 25mph through the
end of the TAF period. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       31  47  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      30  47  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     32  48  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   33  52  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       32  50  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    30  44  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     28  44  25  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     MSZ018-019-025>059.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM Monday to 8 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ018-
     019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM Monday to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     ARZ074-075.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM Monday to 8 AM CST Tuesday for ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

DC/OAJ/DC