307
FXUS64 KJAN 132315 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
615 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry weather, seasonably warm afternoons, and seasonable
   mornings persist through the work week.

 - Chances for showers and storms return to the forecast area on
   Saturday through Sunday. Low chance (15 percent) of organized
   storms in northwest Delta region late Saturday afternoon
   through midday Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

This week (Tonight through Friday)...

Ridge to the southwest will propagate northeastward into the
ArkLaTex and continue into the Gulf Coast region through midweek. In
the near term, surface and upper ridging will prevail, with dry
moisture profiles, especially in the lowest 3km, where relative
humidity will remain quite low in the 20 to 35 percent range. This
will support more efficient mixing into Tuesday. Light winds and
clear skies will support cool but near normal temperatures overnight
(52-60F). Continued curing of dry fuels and afternoon warmth and low
humidity is expected tomorrow (28 to 35 percent minimum RHs). With a
tightening pressure gradient, an uptick in northeasterly surface
wind is anticipated Tuesday. This may support low end fire danger
risk across areas along and north of the Natchez Trace and
Interstate 20 corridors. Holding off mention in the hazard graphics
for now.

As ridge moves over the Gulf Coast region, heights will fall from
around 592 to 594DM to around 586DM over the northern Gulf into mid
to late week. Low level trajectories will become more southerly into
late week, helping mean moisture profiles to increase. Heat will
moderate through the work week (85F to 90F highs). An increase in
southerly return flow will help highs and lows moderate seasonably
warm (highs some 8F to 12F above and lows some 14F to 18F above).

This weekend:

Recent trends indicate a sharper trough/frontal convergence swinging
into the Plains, across the ArkLaTex and Gulf Coast states this
weekend. This will lead to surface low development across the
ArkLaTex and subtle height falls. Combined with an increase in deep
moisture, scattered rain and storm probabilities have trended
upward are next weekend (up to 30 to 60 percent). In addition,
some severe storm potential, greater than 15 percent, may organize
late Saturday afternoon through midday Sunday. Mean bulk shear
(30 to 40kts in the 0-3km to 0-6km layers) and vertical totals in
the mid to upper 20s (26 to 28C) and destabilization/lapse rates
may be supportive of organized storms. Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has highlighted a hazard outlook for portions of the MS
Delta region on Saturday. Held off introduction in hazard graphics
to account for some potential failure modes this far out (i.e.
capping and subtle height falls). However, introduction in a
future forecast cycle may be warranted if trends persist. In the
wake of the front, expect temperatures to remain seasonably warm
but not as much as before (highs 78F to 86F Sunday and lows 52F to
60F Sunday night). /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. NE wind
gusts to around 20 kt will be possible at times on Tuesday
afternoon. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       58  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      55  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     58  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   57  87  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       58  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    57  84  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     57  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/DL