778
FXUS64 KJAN 240545
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1145 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A storm system will bring a slight to marginal risk for
    severe weather Monday night and Tuesday along with locally
    heavy rain.

  - Much cooler and drier air will surge into the area Wednesday
    and continue the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

  - Heavy rainfall could become a concern by early next week for
    northwest portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tonight through Tuesday:

Stratus lingering over much the area today struggling to clear out,
and it may only redevelop tonight along with a fog threat given
the cool/humid boundary layer conditions didn`t get to mix out
much today. As of now, it seems the coolest and most humid
locations are along/south of the Hwy 84 corridor, and so have
indicated the greater fog potential there in the forecast, but the
fog forecast confidence is not great overall.

Once any fog dissipates early Monday, attention will turn to a
shortwave trough crossing the Southern Plains and approaching the
Lower MS Valley by late in the day. Low level winds and moisture
transport will increase quickly over the forecast area in response
to the height/pressure falls, and increasing instability and deep
layer wind shear will create an environment supportive of
organized thunderstorm activity as we go through Monday night.
Of greatest concern Low level shear may become favorable for a
few tornadoes, mainly over western portions of the area where a
slight risk is now being messaged, but recent high-res guidance
are showing a signal for discrete supercell development in the
open warm sector well ahead of the more organized storms that may
have good access to richer boundary layer moisture that could
result in low tornado probabilities a bit further east late Monday
night.

By Tuesday, as synoptic scale ascent wanes, we should see overall
storm coverage/intensity diminish ahead of a lingering surface
boundary that will continue pushing east. A few storms may re-
intensify with daytime heating over central/eastern MS and we are
messaging a marginal risk for this threat. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will linger into Tuesday night before conditions dry out
late.

Wednesday through Friday night: A significant weather pattern
change will take place with cool continental polar air surging
into the area behind a cold front Wednesday. It appears that at
least a light freeze should occur Thursday night for northern
portions of the area, and then for a larger portion of the area
Friday night when clear skies and light wind will be more common
with surface high pressure in a more favorable position.

Next weekend: It is definitely worth mentioning the day 7-8 period
for this forecast as quite an active weather pattern could develop
over much of the central CONUS by that time as a major longwave
trough sets up over the Rockies into the Plains while a strong
ridge builds up the East Coast, thus placing our area in favorable
deep southwest flow aloft for several rounds of showers and storms.
As of now, global models are showing increasing potential for
heavy rainfall to develop, especially over the ArkLaMiss Delta
region where it would be supported by the current La Nina. This is
just something to keep an eye on for the next few days. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low stratus and patchy/areas of dense fog will once again be
possible this morning. Fog is more likely at PIB and HBG.
Conditions should improve to VFR mid morning. Further north and
west tomorrow evening could see VCTS/-TSRA. Winds will be light
from the southeast./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  51  77  64 /   0   0  10  80
Meridian      66  49  77  60 /   0   0   0  60
Vicksburg     63  51  78  64 /   0   0  50  90
Hattiesburg   71  51  82  65 /   0   0   0  40
Natchez       62  51  80  64 /   0   0  40  80
Greenville    59  50  72  62 /   0   0  60  90
Greenwood     64  50  74  62 /   0   0  30  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/EC/SAS20