805
FXUS64 KJAN 090601 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1201 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Frost or light freeze conditions are likely north of
    Interstate 20 Sunday night into Monday morning.

  - A widespread significant freeze is expected Monday night into
    Tuesday morning.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

After coordination with neighboring offices, upgraded the Freeze
Watch to Freeze Warning headlines for tomorrow night (Sunday
night into Monday morning) and added Freeze Watch headlines for
southern half of the CWA for Monday night. The entire area can be
expected to be warned Monday night for the most impactful
significant freeze, even though northern areas fall below
freezing tomorrow night. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Our primary concern this week is the arrival of a polar air mass
with the first significant freeze of the season. Most locations are
expected to fall into the mid 20s on Monday night/Tuesday morning -
enough for an agricultural "killing freeze" for unprotected
sensitive vegetation. It`s recommended to take advantage of the rest
of this weekend to prepare for the arrival of cold air. The coldest
locations - northern and eastern Mississippi - will likely fall into
the 20-25 degree range early Tuesday morning.

The currently stalled frontal boundary from this last shortwave will
get a reinforcing push tonight as a deeper shortwave trough slides
east across the Mississippi River Valley. Central/eastern CONUS
longwave trough will continue to deepen into early this next week,
resulting in tightened height and surface pressure gradients Sunday
into Monday. Northerly winds tomorrow will be breezy, but should
mostly remain below "Limited" thresholds for local messaging
(sustained mainly less than 20 mph and gusts less than 30 mph) due
to front passing overnight. Will hold off on any wind graphic due to
the marginal nature. Temps will drop to near or below freezing
generally north of Interstate 20 in our area Sunday night, but with
northerly flow continuing, the risk for frost is a bit mediated
Sunday night. 50th percentile NBM values are warmer, indicating
mixed conditions should keep temps above bias corrected values. Will
maintain the Freeze Watch and plan to update to Freeze Warning in
the next cycle.

The polar air mass arrives into our region in full Monday, with the
core of a 1030+ mb surface high sliding to East Texas and along the
Gulf Coast. The high pressure and lighter winds will allow for best
radiational cooling potential Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Even with some light warm advection returning in the Mississippi
River valley by Tuesday, the entire area is expected to fall below
28 degrees overnight. With at least a few hours below freezing
expected, the local hazardous weather outlook graphic has been
upgraded to "Significant" freeze threat messaging. Assuming these
widespread freeze conditions occur, no further freeze messaging or
products will be needed for this cool season. That said, frost/light
freeze is possible in eastern and southeastern Mississippi again
Tuesday night near the core of the surface high. Warm advection will
then prevail through the end of the week with temps mostly ranging
from the 40s to 70s for the back half of the week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Patchy dense fog and low stratus ahead of a front pushing into the
area has resulted in some categorical reductions to IFR/LIFR at
some sites. SHRA cannot be ruled out early this morning across
southeast MS. Conditions will improve during the early morning as
the front sweeps southeastward across the area. Though VFR
conditions will return behind the front, increasing winds may
result in low level wind shear through daybreak, and northwesterly
winds will be gusty at times through the remainder of the TAF
period. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       53  62  32  47 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      54  65  32  47 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     53  63  33  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   59  70  35  51 /  20  10   0   0
Natchez       53  65  33  50 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    50  56  31  45 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     48  57  29  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Warning from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for
     MSZ018-019-025>039-041>046.

     Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     MSZ040-047>066-072>074.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for MSZ027>033-035>038-
     040>044-047>050-053>055-059.

LA...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for LAZ008-009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Freeze Warning from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST Monday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/NF/DL