055
FXUS64 KJAN 231115
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
515 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A storm system with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms
    and locally heavy rain remains a concern late Monday evening
    through Tuesday afternoon.

  - Seasonably cool conditions possible in the wake of the front
    late week, with light frost possible around Thanksgiving
    holiday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Through late week into next weekend...

Today: Synoptic analysis and water vapor imagery indicate northwest
flow across the region, with shortwave ridging out to the west. GOES
East total PWs and dewpoints currently are falling in the wake of
the frontal passage (PWs around 0.6 inches and dewpoints in the 50F
to 58F range). With drier air and shortwave ridging, dry and less
seasonable warmth is expected tomorrow. Temperatures will be
seasonably warm but relaxed today, 5-8F above (highs of 66F to 76F
and lows 48F to 54F this morning and 45F to 52F tonight).

This week (Monday-Friday): Recent guidance has trended more
confident in synoptic setup to start the work week. Strong cold core
will eject out of the Intermountain West and into the Central Plains
in KS to OK border, with strong vorticity advection swinging
southward across the Red River Valley to south-central TX. Increased
upper jet will overspread the Plains, with favorable upper jet
dynamics across this area. This will spark a lee side cyclogenesis
and 1006mb to 1008mb surface low swinging eastward. The strongest
forcing will remain well off to the north into the Ozarks to Mid MS
to OH Valleys. However, there will be enough forcing, low level jet
and frontal convergence to spark increased rain and storm coverage,
with the onset as early as Monday evening and lasting through the
day on Tuesday. Synoptic pattern is coming more into focus in the
northern Rockies to northern Plains, with another strong closed low
in the wake. All this being said, the pattern favors a line of
organized convection moving in late Monday evening and majority
moving through around midday Tuesday, but some organized storm
activity could persist into the afternoon ahead of any frontal
convergence. Strong mean southwesterly shear (30-55kts) will set up
but remain line-parallel, with 40-50kt low level jet. This will help
drive dewpoints back up into the 64-68F degree range along and south
of Interstate 20. With strong southwesterly mean bulk shear, lapse
rates, favorable thermo (6C to 6.5C in mid levels, 25 to 27C
vertical totals and 500 J/kg to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), severe threat and
advertisement in HWO remains warranted. Any northeast bowing
segments could be a concern for damaging wind gusts and a tornado,
with some hail threat at the onset Monday evening and again into
Tuesday afternoon.

Strong cloud bearing layer flow (40-50kts in the 850-300mb layer),
PWs around 1.6 to 1.8 inches and 850mb Theta E around 330K favor
some quick, locally heavy convective downpours. Rain totals remain
sufficient, but only around 1.5 to 2.5 inches (locally higher in
convection or training line-parallel storms). NBM probabilities for
greater than 2 inches (40 to 50 percent) and 3 inches (30 percent)
favor quick accumulation but lower confidence of flash flooding
concerns. Will continue to hold off in the HWO, but the areas in the
Delta have the best chance for any eventual HWO advertisement. In
addition, surface low won`t be really deep but there will be some
pressure gradient (4mb) for some gusty gradient winds, at most
around 25mph gusts or a touch higher at times.

Seasonably warm conditions will be expected both Monday and Tuesday,
highs some 10F to 15F above (72F to 80F), while  very seasonable
warmth Monday night, some 20F to 24F above (59F to 65F). Some record
warm lows are possible for sites along and north of Interstate 20.

This pattern favors rain chances through around noon Wednesday
before strong frontal passage. In the wake, mean northerly
flow/subsidence, 1028-1030mb surface high and drier thermal profiles
(PWs less than half inch) favor dryness and seasonably cooler
conditions, 5-8F below, into late this week on Thanksgiving into
late week (Thursday into Friday). Low temperatures in the low 30s
(possibly near freezing) to low 40s are possible both Wednesday
night through Thursday night, with a light frost possible Thursday
night. A more amplified synoptic and surface reflection will take
place into next weekend. Stay tuned for more details as we iron out
those details. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A low stratus deck continues to spread south across the area this
morning. This may or may not make it to southern sites, but have
an hour of IFR/MVFR ceilings in TEMPO group at HBG, PIB and HEZ.
Stratus should lift mid to late morning, scattered out for the
afternoon. VFR prevails for the rest of the period./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  51  76  64 /   0   0  10  80
Meridian      70  48  76  60 /   0   0   0  50
Vicksburg     69  51  78  64 /   0   0  20  90
Hattiesburg   75  52  81  64 /   0   0   0  40
Natchez       70  53  79  64 /   0   0  20  80
Greenville    67  51  73  62 /   0   0  40 100
Greenwood     68  50  75  62 /   0   0  20  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/DC/SAS20