711
FXUS64 KJAN 200031 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
631 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Dense fog will impact southern portions of Mississippi
    Thursday morning.

  - Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase as
    we approach the weekend.

  - A more significant storm system could impact our area early
    next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Near-term weather elements were updated with latest guidance
through tomorrow afternoon, but no major adjustments were needed
with this cycle. The main concern through this time is still the
potential for dense fog in especially southeastern Mississippi
tomorrow morning. Patchy fog with this main area of development
could extend up to around Interstate 20 around daybreak, but
confidence in dense fog was too low to expand the Dense Fog
Advisory. A separate area of patchy fog could develop in northeast
Mississippi, but again, widespread dense fog development is not
expected there at this time. Any fog should mix out by around 9 AM
Thursday. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Through Thursday:

Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the
circulation around a closed low over southern California and
ridging from the Gulf across our CWA and over the mid Mississippi
valley. A disturbance rounding the base of the closed low will
track northeast across the southern Plains tonight and then over
the upper level ridge Thursday. Surface ridging across the Gulf
coast and ridging aloft will try to hang tough over our CWA but
model consensus suggests low rain chances will return to our
northwest most zones by sunrise and then continue along and north
of Highway 82 Thursday as the disturbance moves east and well to
our north. In the south with continued WAA maintaining the moist
airmass in place, dense fog will likely redevelop by morning. A
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for our southeast zones where
confidence is highest in a greater areal coverage of dense fog but
patchy dense fog will also be possible over east Mississippi as
well. Temperatures will continue well above normal through the
period. /22/

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Strong riding over the central Gulf will be suppressed somewhat
as a filling shortwave trough ejects across the Southern US
Friday. In advance of the wave, a few rain showers can`t be ruled
out around the periphery of the ridge Thursday night. A low
pressure system associated with the approaching disturbance will
push a cold front through the region late Thursday night through
Friday. Modest instability and wind shear may exist in the warm
sector out ahead of the cold front, and some stronger
thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out in the air mass.
Forcing with the front will be decreasing, and resulting low-level
flow will be more boundary-parallel. Therefore there is no
widespread threat for severe thunderstorms expected at this time.
Showers or a few storms may linger in our area on Saturday as the
front stalls out.

Sunday through Tuesday:

Flow aloft will amplify for early next week as another low digs over
the Desert Southwest and slowly lifts eastward. Moisture recovery
will begin along the TX Gulf Coast during this early week time
frame, and by Tuesday, the low could be sliding across the South
with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms in the region.
It`s too far out to have certainty with this type of system in this
kind of weather pattern, but that will be our next target to monitor
for any impacts in our region as the Thanksgiving holiday time
frame approaches. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR conditions to start the TAF period at all sites. Then by
around 10Z Thursday, chances for dense fog and IFR ceilings
increase especially near KHBG, KPIB, and KHEZ. Farther north,
patchy BR and scattered low stratus cannot be ruled out in the
10Z-14Z time frame. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  81  63  79 /   0   0  40  80
Meridian      59  81  60  77 /   0   0  20  80
Vicksburg     63  81  64  80 /   0   0  40  70
Hattiesburg   60  82  63  80 /   0   0  20  70
Natchez       61  80  64  82 /   0  10  40  70
Greenville    65  80  64  78 /  10  20  50  70
Greenwood     64  80  64  77 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ062>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/KP/NF