527
FXUS64 KJAN 011129
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
629 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return to portions of the area today.

- Heavier rain is possible especially Saturday and Sunday.

- Cooler weather will arrive with a strong cold front Monday into
  the new work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A low pressure system over the Southern High Plains today will begin
breaking down and shearing out. As the wave stretches to the east
and is absorbed in the flow, it will drag a cold frontal boundary
from Texas to the Carolinas over the weekend. Pooled moisture along
the front will support heavy rain, but the primary surge of 2+ PWATs
will arrive from the south with an easterly wave Friday night into
Saturday. The combination of mainly westerly flow, ascent along the
flank of the subtropical jet stream, and anomalously high moisture
content will result in heavy rain for parts of the broader Gulf
Coast region. Guidance is in agreement that heaviest amounts through
the weekend will likely be close to the Gulf Coast itself. Average
totals will be near 0.75 inches in the Delta region and closer to 2
inches in the Pine Belt region. Where showers and storms fall over
the same areas, upper end forecasts suggest 3 to 4 inches of rain
could fall through the weekend. At this time, no widespread flash
flooding is expected in our area, but will monitor trends in
guidance.

By Monday, however, a surging polar cold front will sweep into the
Mid-South and Gulf Coast. A breezy and cooling north wind will
persist through the day Monday and chase the decreasing rain
chances. A 1025mb surface high moving from the Canadian Prairies
toward the Mid-Atlantic is around the 90th percentile in strength
for this time of year. We won`t receive the full force of this high,
but cooler temps will still be felt! Low temperatures Monday night
and onward look to range from the 50s to near 60 degrees. These
values would be about 5-15 degrees below normal for early October.
/NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Fog is visible on satellite and on traffic cameras this morning
around Hattiesburg. Included FG in the TAF at HBG this morning
through 14z. There may be a brief reduction in visibility at MEI,
PIB, JAN, HKS as well if this fog deck spreads further north.

Winds will be from the southeast and there may be gusts up to
20kts in spots. Showers will begin this afternoon in the vicinity
of HBG and PIB around 22z. The showers will spread northward and
taper off around 3z.

There is a high chance for dense fog tomorrow morning, possibly
widespread. FG was added to HBG and PIB for tomorrow morning, more
places could be added later. /SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  70  92  70 /  30  10  40  30
Meridian      92  68  91  69 /  20  10  50  30
Vicksburg     93  70  92  68 /  20  10  30  30
Hattiesburg   92  70  91  70 /  60  10  70  30
Natchez       93  71  93  70 /  30  10  40  40
Greenville    95  72  91  68 /  10  10  50  40
Greenwood     94  71  93  68 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/NF/SAS20