602
FXUS64 KJAN 030717 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
217 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Showers are dissipating across the area this evening, but a few
light showers may hang around into the overnight hours. Lows
tonight will fall mostly into the mid 60s./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

There`s a remnant weak surface boundary over far northwestern
Mississippi that will continue drift southeastward while washing
out over the next 24-36 hours. Broken cloud coverage is lingering
across the area today and should persist through the afternoon
hours. As the day progresses and daytime heating provide more
energy, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more widespread
and stronger, in conjunction with the stationary boundary ambling
southward. At this moment the highest winds we are looking to see
should be in the 30- 40mph range with a small potential for a
cell or two to overachieve into 50+ mph.

Sunset will put a damper on convective activity, and we will see
precipitation cease entirely by 10PM. The front should drape through
central to southern Mississippi by this time too, the upper levels
largely reflect the surface in that there is set to broad
troughing over the CWA for the next few days, bringing
progressively clearer skies daily through the late week.

While skies will certainly be clearer, this does not mean we`re out
of the woods just yet concerning precipitation chances. There will
still be residual moisture/lift for Wednesday ushering forth another
round of diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday and Friday look to be our driest days over the next week
with the aforementioned broad troughing allowing for dry air to
settle into across the southeastern United States.

Over the weekend a low progged to spin up over central Texas will
begin tracking our way, with the northeastern peripheries of the
cloud shield beginning to affect the Gulf coast stretching across
central MS early Saturday morning. Instability provided by this low,
along with a healthy amount of moisture set to start channeling into
the CWA will provide enough ingredients to regenerate our diurnally
driven convection. Daily coverage and intensity will increase daily
reaching a crescendo Tuesday afternoon.

Its tough to say with any sort of confidence the impacts this next
low will provide, given that the depth and tracking this far out
tend to be a bit too variant. Should the low track faster out of
Texas than is currently projected, we could see widespread strong
and scattered damaging wind events. In the past global guidance
tends to be a bit overzealous with cyclogenesis so we`re going to
err on the more optimistic side of things until we get closer to
next week. /OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

LIFR vsby wl cont at GTR through 13Z before improving to VFR.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to prevail until after 18Z
when scattered TSRA wl develop and affect the TAF sites except at
PIB and HBG where the TSRA are expected to remain north of those
sites. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  92  70  96 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      67  91  70  95 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     68  93  70  96 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   69  94  70  97 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       68  91  69  94 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    67  93  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     67  93  69  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/OAJ/22