Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
340
FXUS62 KJAX 240738
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
338 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Extended Duration of Coastal and Marine Hazards is Expected
into the Upcoming Week. Coastal Flood Warnings Will Go Into
Effect Today Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the
Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River Basin, where
Moderate to Potentially Major Tidal and Coastal Flooding is
Expected Around Times of High Tide through at Least Monday.
- Wind Advisory Along the Atlantic Coast Coast this Afternoon
and Tonight, with Windy Conditions Continuing into Early Next
Week.
- Gale Warning for the Atlantic Waters from Saturday Afternoon
through Monday.
- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues at All Area Beaches
During the Next Several Days. Major Beach Erosion is Likely
During Times of High Tide this Weekend through Much of the
Upcoming Week.
- Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible for Coastal Northeast FL this
Afternoon through Sunday Night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:
The local pressure gradient continues to tighten today as strong
high pressure centered over New England wedges down the eastern
seaboard and an area of low pressure develops northeast of the
Bahamas. This will develop and sharpen coastal troughing over
the nearshore Atlantic waters bringing gusty north-northeasterly
winds. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this afternoon into
evening where gusts could reach up to 40-45 mph along the SE GA
and NE FL coasts. Breezy conditions linger overnight with the
continued tight pressure gradient. Waves of scattered coastal
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will shift onshore
through the day mainly to coastal NE FL and then into the St
Johns River basin and Ocala National Forest. A few convergent
bands may form along the northeast FL coast bringing heavier
downpours and localized flooding. If these bands coincide with
this evening`s high tide cycle, this could exacerbate the
already significant tidal flooding expected. Shower activity
wanes overnight. Due to the strong north-northeast flow, high
temperatures will range from the low 70s along the SE GA coast
to the upper 70s further inland. Overnight lows will range from
the mid 50s in SE GA to the upper 60s along the NE FL coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Coastal and Marine Hazards Peak on Sunday and Monday, with
Coastal Flood Warnings in Effect Along the Atlantic Coast,
Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River Basin. Moderate to
Possibly Major Tidal Flooding Will Continue Around Times of
High Tide.
- Wind Advisory Conditions Likely to Continue at Coastal
Locations.
- Gale Warnings Continue for the Atlantic Waters.
- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf
Advisories and a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents at All Area
Beaches. Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major
Beach Erosion.
- Locally Heavy Downpours Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night
for Coastal Northeast FL.
A highly amplified pattern will prevail aloft across the country
late this weekend and early next week, with deep troughing along
the U.S. eastern seaboard, ridging extending from the lower
Mississippi Valley northward to the Great Lakes states, while
another deep trough progresses northeastward from the Desert
Southwest across the Rockies. Strong surface high pressure
positioned over the Mid- Atlantic states on Sunday will continue
to wedge down the southeastern seaboard, while a sharp coastal
trough keeps a tight local pressure gradient in place across our
area. This high pressure center will then gradually weaken as
it shifts southward across the southeastern states on Sunday
night and Monday, but lowering surface pressures to the south of
our region will still keep a relatively tight local pressure
gradient in place across our area on Monday. Wind Advisory
criteria may continue to be met for coastal locations, where
sustained speeds of 25-30 mph are forecast, with frequent gusts
of 35-45 mph possible through Monday afternoon.
Sharp coastal troughing will yield enough low level convergence
to occasionally drive bands of moderate showers that will be
oriented from northeast to southwest onshore across coastal
northeast FL and the I-95 corridor and portions of the St. Johns
River basin on Sunday and Sunday night. A few training bands of
showers could contain heavier downpours, which could create
some flood concerns during times of high tide at coastal
locations. The threat for heavier downpours along the northeast
FL coast may diminish by Monday as a drier air mass advects into
inland southeast GA, shifting deeper moisture values southward
over the FL peninsula.
Low stratus cloud cover will persist across most of northeast FL
and coastal southeast GA on Sunday and Monday, where highs
will mostly remain in the lower or mid 70s. A drier air mass
over interior southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley and north
central FL should allow for breaks in the stratus and
stratocumulus to develop during the afternoon hours, allowing
highs to climb to the mid and upper 70s. Cloud cover and breezy
conditions will keep lows in the mid to upper 60s for most of
northeast and north central FL, while clearing skies allow lows
to fall to the mid and upper 50s for inland southeast GA and the
northern Suwannee Valley. A gradual loosening of our local
pressure gradient on Monday night will allow for winds to
decouple overnight across inland southeast GA and northern
portions of the Suwannee Valley, where fair skies will allow
lows to fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Lows elsewhere
inland and along the southeast GA coast will fall into the 50s,
while breezy onshore winds keep lows in the mid to upper 60s for
most of coastal northeast FL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Moderate Tidal
Flooding Likely Around Times of High Tide on Tuesday Along
the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and St. Johns River
Basin. Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding May Continue for Much
of the Upcoming Week Within the St. Johns River Basin.
- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Persist, with a High Risk
for Deadly Rip Currents and Significant Beach Erosion
Possible at Area Beaches throughout the Upcoming Week.
Cutoff troughing and lower surface pressures will likely meander
around the Bahamas before developing zonal flow finally pushes
these features northeastward and away from our region late in
the week. However, a reinforcing high pressure center building
over New England later on Tuesday will begin to wedge down the
southeastern seaboard on Wednesday, likely keeping gusty
northeasterly winds in place at coastal locations for the
duration of the upcoming week as coastal troughing remains
situated over our local Atlantic waters. This long duration wind
event will maintain significant coastal and marine impacts as
high astronomical tides persist next week.
A drier air mass that will overspread our area on Monday night
and Tuesday will be replaced by another surge of Atlantic
moisture towards midweek as coastal troughing sharpens and low
level convergence strengthens, which should advect showers
occasionally onshore for the balance of the work week. Gusty
onshore winds will keep highs mostly in the lower 70s along the
I-95 corridor, with mid to upper 70s prevailing inland. The
lingering dry air mass on Tuesday night should allow inland lows
to fall to the upper 40s across inland southeast GA, with 50s
elsewhere inland, while 60s prevail at coastal locations. Lows
will then generally fall to the 55-60 range on Wednesday and
Thursday nights, while 60s continue at coastal locations.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place through the majority of the
forecast period with north-northeasterly winds decreasing to
around 5-10 kts overnight hours. Winds quickly increase around
sunrise with the highest winds expected after 16Z. North-
northeasterly winds will peak with sustained winds 15-20 kts and
gusts 20-30 kts. Highest winds will be at coastal TAF sites.
Waves of showers will shift onshore and move near CRG and SGJ
generally after 16Z briefly lowering conditions. MVFR cloud deck
may move over the TAF sites this afternoon but confidence was
too low to include at this time.
&&
.MARINE...
A combination of strong high pressure developing to the north,
and an area of low pressure to the southeast will result in a
tight pressure gradient over area waters this weekend into early
next week. Wind gusts increase to gale force this afternoon
into evening and are expected to continue into Monday. The high
will weaken to the north next week but winds and waves will
remain elevated.
Rip Currents / High Surf: Breakers will build to the 6-7 foot
range today at the northeast FL beaches and 4-5 foot range at
the southeast GA beaches, with a high risk of deadly rip
currents continuing at all area beaches. High Surf Advisories
have been issued through Monday for our entire Atlantic
coastline, and surf will likely peak from Sunday through Monday,
when breakers reach the 8-10 foot range at the northeast FL
beaches and 6-8 feet at the southeast GA beaches. High surf
conditions may continue for the rest of the upcoming work week
at the northeast FL beaches, and a high risk of deadly rip
currents will persist at all area beaches, where major beach
erosion is likely to occur during this extended duration onshore
wind event.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
- Marginally High Dispersion Values Inland This Afternoon.
- ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Showers will begin to move onshore along the northeast Florida
coast early on Saturday morning, followed by waves of showers
throughout the weekend and into Monday along the I-95 corridor
in northeast Florida, with activity occasionally extending to
coastal southeast Georgia and for inland locations east of U.S.
Highway 301 in northeast and north central Florida. Locally
heavy downpours will be possible this weekend along the I-95
corridor in northeast Florida. Otherwise, dry weather will
prevail across inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley
during the next several days. Breezy northerly surface and
transport winds early this morning will shift to northeasterly
by the mid-morning hours, with strengthening surface and
transport winds area-wide this afternoon. These strengthening
winds will create marginally high daytime dispersion values
across the Okefenokee Swamp and northern portions of the
Suwannee Valley this afternoon, with good values forecast
elsewhere. Gusty northeasterly surface and transport winds will
continue through Sunday night, creating elevated nighttime
dispersion values at most locations this weekend. Northeasterly
surface and transport winds will gradually diminish on Monday
and Tuesday across inland southeast Georgia and the northern
Suwannee Valley, while breezy to windy conditions continue
elsewhere, yielding fair to good daytime dispersion values.
Elevated nighttime dispersion values will continue at coastal
locations for much of next week.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog
formation is not expected during the next several days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla
River during the weekend, with water levels forecast to fall
below flood stage by Sunday night or Monday near the gauge at
Atkinson.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures from predicted values continue to increase as
the highest astronomical tides of the year arrive. We expect
water levels to reach minor to moderate flood levels during the
morning high tide cycle today along the Atlantic Coast and
within the Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River basin, with
values generally 1.5 - 2.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water
(MHHW). Strengthening north-northeasterly winds today will
combine with the increasingly high astronomical tides to yield
water levels reaching moderate flood levels during the evening
high tide tonight, with water levels generally climbing to 2-3
feet above MHHW, which has prompted the issuance of Coastal
Flood Warnings along the Atlantic Coast and within the
Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River basin. Peak water
levels will likely coincide with the upcoming full moon on
Sunday/Monday Oct 25-26, and confidence continues to grow with
respect to peak water levels of 2.5-3.5 feet above MHHW during
the Sunday and Monday high tide cycles. Northeast winds will
only gradually decrease through the week, but high astronomical
tides with the lunar perigee on October 28th will maintain minor
to moderate tidal flooding from Tuesday onward, with higher
probabilities for moderate flooding continuing within the St.
Johns River Basin.
As the astronomical tide levels increase, the combination of the
building surf and water levels will lead to significant beach
erosion potential. This potential looks higher than the prior
northeast wind event around Oct 17th-18th, and the long duration
of this event could produce major erosion during each high tide
cycle for much of the upcoming week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 75 54 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 72 61 72 62 / 10 10 10 10
JAX 73 63 73 64 / 30 30 20 20
SGJ 75 68 75 68 / 70 60 60 60
GNV 77 64 78 64 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 79 64 79 65 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
FLZ038-125-132-137-325-633.
Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ038-125-132-
137-325-633.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-
124-125-138-233-333-433-533.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
FLZ124.
High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Monday
for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
Monday for FLZ124-138-225-233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
FLZ138-225-233-333.
GA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-
166.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Monday
for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
Monday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ450-452-470-
472.
Gale Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-
470-472.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ454-
474.
Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for
AMZ454-474.
&&
$$