812
FXUS62 KJAX 261820
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
220 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Nor`easter Conditions Slowly Weaken this Weekend. Moderate to
  High Rip Current Continues through Sunday. Minor Tidal
  Flooding this weekend for the St. Johns River

- Small Craft Advisories at Offshore Waters through Tonight

- Isolated Thunderstorm Activity Returns Mid to Late week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- High rip current risk and elevated surf to continue into Tonight
- Minor flooding possible the St Johns river with next couple of
  high tide cycles through this evening

A strong low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast lifts further away
to the north as high pressure ridging extends from the Midwest into
the southeast US. Drier (PWATs 0.5-0.7") and cooler airmass persists
over the region today under north-northwest flow. After a morning of
record low temperatures, highs today will be below seasonable in the
upper 70s along the coast to low 80s inland. Tonight, winds decouple
inland and calm under mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will fall
to the mid-upper 50s inland to low 60s along the coast and St Johns
river basin. Despite calm winds and mostly clear skies, airmass
appears to be too dry to support fog development tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period (Sunday/Monday):

- Minor Tidal Flooding Likely to Continue Within the St. Johns River
Basin

- Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents at Atlantic Beaches

- Near to Above Normal Temperatures Return

Dry northwesterly flow persists aloft late weekend and into Monday
which will continue to keep conditions dry as an upper and surface
low well to our northeast takes its sweet time pulling away from the
US. For Sunday, surface high pressure will remain northwest of the
region, with a light west to northwest flow near the surface and a
slight sea breeze influence near the coast thanks to abundant
sunshine and highs generally in the mid 80s. The flow direction
shifts slightly south of west for Monday as high pressure shifts
more towards the north of the region, allowing temps to continue to
warm as far too much dry air aloft remains in place for any
rain/convective potential. Temperatures in the upper 80s will be
more common Monday, except for mid 80s near the coast.

The only other impact concerns for the short term will be minor
tidal flooding in the St. Johns River Basin in susceptible, and
at least moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches.
Guidance continues to suggest minor nuisance type flooding could
continue for both Sunday and Monday at times of high tide,
which we will keep an eye on over the coming days for potential
extension of the Coastal Flood Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Friday):

- Return to Above Normal Temperatures and Increasing Rain Chances
Late in the Week

Mostly dry conditions continue Tuesday with perhaps just an isolated
shower or thunderstorm inland, before more significant changes in
the pattern occur mid to late week. High pressure shifts east of the
CONUS Wednesday through Friday, returning more of a southeast flow
with increasing moisture as well as warmer/above normal
temperatures. Daily shower and t`storm chances return gradually with
the uptick in moisture, with coverage mainly across northeast
FL Wednesday and Thursday before expanding area wide by Friday
and into the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail during the period. Northerly winds
around 5-10 kts this afternoon gradually shift northeasterly as weak
Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland. Winds then become calm after 00Z
inland and light and variable at the coast under a few high clouds.
Patchy fog will be possible at VQQ in the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.MARINE...


Strong low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will track further
away to the north through the end of the weekend as high pressure
builds southward from the eastern Great Lakes into the southeast
U.S. As low pressure lifts away, seas will gradually diminish
through this evening, ending small craft conditions. High pressure
will shift over the region Sunday and Monday with prevailing west to
southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the afternoon nearshore
from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High pressure will shift
east of the waters midweek with southerly winds, turning easterly in
the afternoon over the nearshore waters from seabreeze circulation.
Increasing moisture will bring a return of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the waters by midweek.

Rip Currents: Breezy north northeasterly winds today, long period
swells, and elevated surf heights up to 4 to 6 feet will continue
high risk of rip currents today. Long period swells will persist
through Sunday and continue a high risk of rip currents through the
end of the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Over the weekend a dry airmass will push across the area and lower
afternoon humidity to at least 25-30% for several inland districts
Today, Sunday, and Monday. Surface and transport winds will shift to
be more northeasterly Today, with breezy conditions persisting at
coastal locations. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are
forecast area-wide. Winds will become light and turn westerly on
Sunday. Warming temperatures and rising humidity levels are expected
through next week with winds favoring the diurnal Atlantic sea
breeze regime.

Fog Potential...Significant fog formation unlikely the next several
days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will continue rising through the weekend due to
the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon later today. Breezy north to
northeasterly onshore winds today will maintain reverse flow within
the St Johns river with water slow to drain Sunday into early next
week due to lingering high astronomical tides and light winds. Water
levels peak during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher
High Water (MHHW) this weekend into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  63  85  66  86 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  56  86  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  60  84  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  56  85  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  58  86  63  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ125-132-
     137-225-325-633.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 2 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$