758
FXUS62 KJAX 161603
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1203 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerously HOT Weather Continues this Week. Heat Advisory Area-
Wide from 11 AM  8 PM on Today. Heat Advisories & Extreme Heat
Warnings Possible Monday through Thursday

- A Few Strong Thunderstorms Possible Late this Afternoon & Evening.
Main Impact Area: Inland Southeast GA and the Interstate 10 Corridor.
Strong Storm Hazards: Wind Gusts of 35 - 45 mph, Frequent Lightning
Strikes,

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening TStorms from Mon  Sat.
Strong to Isolated Severe Storms are Possible Each Day, Mainly Along
the I-95

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Heat Advisory Conditions Continue Area-Wide Today.

- Isolated Strong Thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening,
Mainly Across Southeast GA and the Interstate 10 Corridor.

Not much change in the ongoing forecast as mid/upper level ridge
aloft and surface trough development along the I-95/US-301 corridor
which will draw in the East Coast sea breeze just enough to trigger
scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening, mainly from
the I-10 corridor northward across SE GA, where a few isolated
strong storms are expected with gusty winds of 40-50 mph and heavy
downpours with a localized flood threat due to slow and erratic
storm motion 10 mph or less, with a quick 1-3 inches possible in the
more intense storms. Convection will fade after sunset and end
around midnight for most locations before it drifts into the
Atlantic. Dew point temps slightly higher this afternoon into the
mid/upper 70s, so combined with Max temps into the mid/upper 90s
still expect the Heat Advisory in effect to verify with peak heat
indices mostly in the 108-112F range. Overnight lows still on track
for mid/upper 70s inland and around 80F for the Atlantic Coast and
along the St. Johns River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Monday & Tuesday
Afternoon/Evening, Especially for Northeast FL

- Heat Index Values Near or Above Heat Advisory Each Day

A frontal boundary from out of the northwest will settle in over
southeast Georgia by Monday resulting in more inhibited convection
over southeast Georgia and with higher chances for storms occurring
ahead of the boundary over northeast Florida. Prevailing flow will
shift to become more out of the west and northwest with moist air
maintaining over northeast Florida south of the frontal boundary and
north of high pressure ridging crossing over the southern Florida
peninsula, with PWAT values measuring upwards of over 2.5 inches.
High temperatures for the beginning of next week will rise into the
upper 90s and potentially reaching upwards to 100 over portions of
southeast Georgia. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into
the mid to upper 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s and
lower 80s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River. Heat index
values during this period will reach upwards of 106 up to over
113, resulting in heat advisory and possible extreme heat
conditions through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Hazardous Heat Continues Next Week

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening,
some which could become strong

Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the northwest by
the end of the week as the stalled frontal boundary over southeast
Georgia, which had been acting to inhibit convection for portions of
the northern forecast area through much of the week,  begins to
disperses and move off to the northeast and results in a more
uniform pattern of diurnal convection going into the weekend. High
temperatures will continue to be in the upper 90s through next week
with heat index values likely to reach heat advisory levels through
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
More significant Cu development this afternoon and slight increase
in Hi-Res guidance rainfall chances suggests the need to include
PROB30 groups in the 19-23Z time frame for potential MVFR conds in
TSRA activity along with potential for gusty winds as the East Coast
sea breeze pushes inland past SSI/CRG/SGJ and helps to trigger
widely scattered storms near local terminals. This activity should
fade after 00Z, with lingering VFR mid/high level clouds into the
overnight hours. Not much chance at any fog around sunrise Monday
morning so will continue to leave out of the forecast for now.
Overall rainfall chances for Monday will be after the current end
time of 18Z TAF period, so will leave out for now as well.

&&

.MARINE...


Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward
across the Florida peninsula, creating a prevailing westerly wind
pattern across our local waters. A frontal boundary will then push
into the southeastern states by Monday afternoon, with this feature
stalling just north of the Georgia waters by midweek. Chances for
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase across our
local waters during the work week. Southwest to westerly winds will
continue to prevail, with brief evening surges of wind speeds to
Caution levels through the work week.

Rip Currents: A lower end moderate risk this afternoon at area
beaches as the sea breeze creates an onshore flow that will combine
with the outgoing tide and a persistent long period southeasterly
ocean swell. Prevailing offshore winds will strengthen on Monday and
Tuesday, creating a low risk that will likely continue through the
end of the work week at all area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Heat Advisory In Effect Today
- Patchy High Dispersions Inland Southeast Ga Monday And Tuesday

Hot conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the
weekend and into at least the start of next week, with Heat
Advisories likely and possibly even Extreme Heat Warnings possible
each day for most or all of the region. This will come with a flow
direction generally out of the southwest to west through the next
several days except for a wind shift with the sea breeze generally
east of the I-95 corridor. A frontal boundary dropping southward
tonight and Monday will return more "usual" chances for showers and
storms for all today, then mainly over northeast Florida for early
to mid week as some drier air moves into southeast GA behind the
front. Better mixing and transport winds will result in good to
patchy high dispersions over inland GA, with fair to good
dispersions elsewhere. The front will linger just north of the
region by late week, with shower and storm chances generally
increasing as well.

Fog Potential: Significant fog developments are not expected,
however late-night or early-morning fog developments are expected to
be shallow and patchy, mainly occurring over areas that have
received locally heavy rainfall. Gusty and erratic winds are often
possible within and nearby any stronger showers or storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures are possible at some of our designated
climate sites during the next several days:

Sunday, August 16:
KJAX: 97/1957
KGNV: 97/1918
KAMG: 100/1995
KCRG: 95/2022

Monday, August 17:
KJAX: 99/1954
KGNV: 97/1954
KAMG: 104/1995
KCRG: 97/2005

Tuesday, August 18:
KJAX: 98/1954
KGNV: 98/1954
KAMG: 105/1995
KCRG: 96/2023

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  97  78  98 /  20  10   0  10
SSI  79  97  80  98 /  30  20  10  20
JAX  77  95  77  96 /  30  40  20  30
SGJ  77  95  78  96 /  30  50  20  40
GNV  76  94  77  95 /  20  50  20  60
OCF  75  95  77  96 /  10  50  10  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ153-
     154-165-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$