174
FXUS62 KJAX 171408
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
908 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Near-Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in Southeast GA. Very Low
  Humidity this Afternoon and Critically Dry Fuels. Be very
  cautious with outdoor flames, check for local burning bans

- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Severe to Extreme
  Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches through
  Tuesday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Early morning surface analysis depicts a weakening, dry cold front
shifting southward across north central and coastal northeast FL.
Weak high pressure (1019 millibars) was building east-
southeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the Ohio Valley in
the wake of this front. Aloft...troughing pivoting across New
England was creating dry northwesterly flow aloft across our
region, with flat ridging building northward from the western Gulf
through the lower Mississippi Valley and the Ozarks upstream from
the progressive trough. Latest GOES-East derived Total
Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a very dry air mass was
advecting into inland portions of southeast GA in the wake of the
frontal passage, where PWATs have fallen below one-half of an
inch. Meanwhile, values remain around 1 inch along the weakening
boundary across north central FL. Fog and low stratus clouds along
the front were beginning to dissipate from north to south across
Marion County, with fair skies otherwise in place across our area.
Temperatures at 14Z ranged from the mid to upper 50s across inland
southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley to the
low and mid 60s elsewhere. Dewpoints were falling through the
upper 30s and lower 40s across inland portions of southeast GA,
with values still around 60 across north central FL.

High pressure will gradually strengthen as it pushes east-
southeastward towards the Ohio Valley, with this feature wedging
down the southeastern seaboard this afternoon. This feature will
push the weakening, dry frontal boundary southward to a position
across the Interstate 4 corridor in central FL by late this
afternoon. This boundary will then stall and weaken tonight as
troughing progresses eastward across Atlantic Canada, allowing for
a more zonal flow aloft to develop locally. The very dry air mass
currently advecting into inland portions of southeast GA will
overspread our area by this afternoon, with plenty of sunshine
allowing inland highs to climb to the mid and upper 70s, with
lower 80s expected across north central FL. Our local pressure
gradient will tighten slightly this afternoon as high pressure
wedges southward, with breezy north-northeasterly winds keeping
coastal highs generally in the 70-75 degree range.

Our local pressure gradient will loosen overnight as high pressure
builds into the southeastern states, with winds at inland
locations decoupling early this evening. Mostly thin cirrus will
move across our area overnight as flow aloft becomes more zonal in
nature, with these high clouds likely exiting into the Atlantic
waters towards sunrise. The dry air mass will result in lows
ranging from around 40 across inland southeast GA to around 50 for
north central FL. A light onshore breeze this evening should shift
to a light offshore breeze overnight as weak coastal troughing
develops over our near shore Atlantic waters, with lows remaining
in the 50s overnight at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)

High pressure ridging from out of the west will build in on
Tuesday and Wednesday over the region resulting in a continuation
of dry weather conditions with mostly clear skies and mild winds.
Potential for overnight and early morning fog developments through
the period. High temperatures will be within the upper 70s and
lower 80s through midweek with overnight low temperatures ranging
between the lower to mid 50s for inland areas and in the lower 60s
along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)

Dry weather conditions will continue through the end of the week
with a potential for showers on Saturday, primarily over inland
southeast Georgia, as high pressure formerly building over the
region moves off to the south and east establishing a more
southwesterly flow ahead of an advancing frontal boundary pressing
into the forecast area from out of the northwest. Temperatures
will remain above the seasonal average, nearing daily record
highs, for the end of the week and through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Lingering radiation fog at VQQ should dissipate before 13Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will otherwise prevail at the regional
terminals through at least 06Z Tuesday. Fog and low stratus
ceilings will likely create LIFR conditions after 06Z at VQQ.
Northerly surface winds of 5-10 knots will prevail at SSI through
around 15Z, with winds shifting to northeasterly around 10 knots
towards 16Z. Otherwise, light northwesterly surface winds early
this morning at the northeast FL terminals will shift to northerly
by 15Z, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots by 16Z. Surface winds
will then shift to northeasterly around 10 knots at the northeast
FL terminals by 19Z. Surface winds will diminish towards 01Z
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 909 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

High pressure will shift east-southeastward from the Ohio Valley
towards the Carolinas by Monday evening, pushing a weakening and
dry cold front south of our local waters. Onshore winds will
develop this afternoon while briefly strengthening, followed by
high pressure settling directly over our local waters later
tonight and Tuesday, allowing for lighter onshore winds. Weakening
high pressure will then shift offshore of the southeastern
seaboard on Wednesday and will remain in control of our weather
pattern through Saturday before another weakening cold front
enters the southeastern states. This front will likely cross our
local waters on Saturday night or Sunday, with a brief period of
breezy southwest to westerly winds expected this weekend, with a
few showers possible during the frontal passage. Seas of 2 to 3
feet will prevail throughout our local waters during the next
several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 909 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Dry air following the frontal passage will settle in over the
region bringing minRH levels down into the 20s and lower over
inland southeast Georgia and inland portions of northeast Florida
north of I-10. Winds will remain mostly mild and variable through
the day resulting in lower mixing heights and poor daytime
dispersion values. Conditions will be borderline today for
elevated fire danger, especially for areas near and north of
Waycross, however the low wind speeds will hold the product off
from being issued. MinRH values will rise as the week progresses,
however dry weather will persist through Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                          WED 11/19  THU 11/20  FRI 11/21  SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)     84/1958    86/1988    84/1991    84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)     82/1984    86/1988    82/2004    81/1997
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)     90/1906    88/1906    86/1973    86/1906
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)     82/1942    83/1942    83/2011    83/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  39  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  69  57  73  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  76  49  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  75  60  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  81  49  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  80  51  82  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$