567
FXUS62 KJAX 020603
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
103 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today. This
  Morning: Southeast GA & Suwannee River Valley. Midday &
  Afternoon: Remainder of NE Florida. Main Strong Storm Hazards:
  Gusty 40-60 mph & Isolated Tornadoes

- Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches Today

- Small Craft Advisory for Most of the Atlantic Waters

- Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA Wed & Thu Mornings

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm frontal frontal boundary continues to lift northward early this
morning, as stratiform rain continues over interior GA with just a
few spotty light showers over northeast FL. Still expecting a "dry
slot" of sorts in the warm sector to keep northeast FL/I-10
southward dry for most of the morning hours as periods of rain
likely continue across much of southeast GA but especially north and
west of Waycross. A few isolated embedded T`storms are still
possible through the early morning hours as a weak low forms and
moves northeast. Lows will be in the 50s along and north of I-10 and
in the low 60s along the NE FL coast and north central FL.

After sunrise, a cold front will move eastward through the FL big
bend as a surface low moves north and east of the area. Along with
continued stratiform rainfall, Isolated T`storms, mainly elevated,
will become more possible as instability ticks up ahead of the front
with flow turning quickly towards the south to southwest off the
Gulf ahead of the front. However, mostly cloudy skies and poor lapse
rates will be the heavily limiting factors on isolated strong to
severe development despite helicity values over 200 m2/s2 and a
developing low level jet in the 40-45 range. For any t`storms that
are able to develop in the weak instability, a brief tornado will be
possible along with gusty winds of 40-60 mph. This potential will
decrease closer to the NE FL coast. Heavier showers and isolated
t`storms are expected to move off the first coast by mid afternoon
as the front progresses southeastward, as skies start to clear from
northwest to southeast. Southwesterly winds pick up into the 15-20
mph range with gusts up to around 25-30 mph late morning into early
afternoon, turning westerly by late afternoon and eventually
northwesterly during the evening hours and subsiding after sunset as
the front passes. Overall expected rainfall amounts will highest NW
of about US84 between 0.50-0.75 inches with localized 2 inch,
dropping off to around a quarter of an inch or less into coastal NE
FL. Highs will vary north to south given the frontal timing and
coverage of rain/t`storms, with upper 60s expected along the
Altamaha river basin to the upper 70s to even the low 80s over NE FL
and southern St Johns river basin.

Cool and dry advection continues tonight though some mid/high clouds
will linger throughout the night. Lows will range from the upper 30s
over interior GA, low to mid 40s near I-10 and the upper Suwanee
River Valley, and low to mid 50s closer to the St. Johns River
Valley and NE FL coast. Though there will be a bit of a breeze
around 5 mph, some patchy frost will be possible over far
interior southeast GA late tonight/early Wednesday Morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday will be significantly cooler with partly cloudy skies with
high pressure building to the north of region. Temperatures will
only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in southeast Georgia and the
mid to upper 60s across Northeast Florida as cold air advection will
continue with a light continental flow with a northwest wind at
4 to 8 mph. Wednesday night will be mostly clear to party
cloudy with ridging in place. Lows will be primarily in the
upper 30s to low 40s for most inland areas, with patchy frost
possible again across Southeast Georgia as winds are near calm
with ideal radiational cooling. Coastal areas will have
overnight lows in 45 to 50 degree range.

On Thursday, sprawling but weaker high pressure continues to
dominate the region with mostly dry and cool conditions. Upper
southwesterly flow does transport some moisture in the 700-400 mb
layer with some potential sprinkles or light rain northwest of
Waycross with some 20-30 percent POPS painted near the Altamaha and
Ocmulgee River Basins as the boundary layer moistens. Upstream, low
pressure does emerge into the western Gulf of America late in the
day. Temperatures on Thursday will rebound slightly (about 2 to 3
degrees), with more a light nwly flow continuing. Thursday night
lows will be in the mid to upper 40s across SE GA and Suwannee
Valley with low 50s south of I-10 and mid to upper 50s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Attention turns to the next weather system, as an the low begins to
lift northeastward into the Central and Northeast Gulf on Friday.
The cold front associated with this low will track southeast into
area Friday night, and may stall through Saturday night, before
slowly moving to the south Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure
will build to the north Monday for .

Heightened chances for showers and thunderstorms will be forecast
from Friday through Sunday with much needed rain over the region.
Hopefully, beneficial rains will bring relief to some ongoing
drought conditions. Some 2 to 4 inch total rain amounts are forecast
north of the FL/GA line with some locally higher amounts. The WPC
Extended Forecast highlights a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
north of I-10 along the stalled or slow moving frontal boundary.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal through Saturday, then
slightly below normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
IFR ceilings continue across most airfields early this morning,
though areas south of Duval (GNV/SGJ) have been more
intermittent. A lull in rain activity is occurring for all
except SSI where rainfall will continue over the next few hours.
This is expected to slowly fill in over the next 3-6 hours or so
before spreading into JAX, VQQ, and CRG after mid to late
morning from the west. Variable winds will increase out of the
south towards sunrise and through the morning/early afternoon
hours across the terminals as a cold front approaches, which
will also result in a period of low level wind shear before more
diurnal mixing occurs. Showers ahead of the cold front will
impact the TAF sites from about 15Z-20Z today, which could
briefly drop vsbys and ceilings closer to IFR range at times,
but otherwise MVFR ceilings will be expected ahead of the front.
Southwest winds will increase accordingly at all TAF sites
before veering towards the west to southwest later this
afternoon and evening. At least MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings
are expected to hold across the area tonight through the
remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...


A warm front will continue to lift north of area waters through this
morning as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf
and tracks northeast of the region through tonight. A cold front
will move through this afternoon and evening, with chances for
showers and an isolated thunderstorm through this time frame ahead
of cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected over
portions of the area waters beginning this morning and continuing
through tonight. Weak high pressure will settle into the region
through Wednesday/Thursday before another frontal system affects the
area waters on Friday and Saturday increasing the chances of showers
and higher winds once again.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Tuesday
              NE FL Moderate Tuesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


A warm front will lift north of the Altamaha around daybreak this
early morning. A cold front will move southeast across the area
Tuesday. As a result, showers with embedded thunderstorms can be
expected today. High pressure will build to the northwest Tuesday,
and to the north Wednesday into Thursday for drier and cooler
conditions. An area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the
Gulf late in the week, providing another chance for showers and
storms from Friday through the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Significant fog is not expected
this morning. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  58  36  61 /   0   0   0  30
SSI  45  62  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  45  66  42  69 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  52  68  50  70 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  49  69  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  52  69  45  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this
     afternoon for AMZ452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$