473
FXUS62 KJAX 111122
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
622 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warnings & Cold Weather Advisories Early this Morning.
  Freeze Warning: All of Southeast GA & Locations West of the St.
  Johns River.Wind Chill Values of 20-25 Early this Morning Area-
  Wide

- Freeze Warnings & Frost Advisories Tonight & Early Wed Morning.
  Freeze Warnings: All Inland Locations, with Widespread Frost
  Forecast. Frost Advisories: Portions of Coastal Northeast FL

- Gale Warnings Continue this Morning for the Coastal Waters

- Elevated Fire Danger Inland Today Due to Low Humidity Values

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Overnight surface analysis depicts Arctic high pressure (1033
millibars) centered over the lower Mississippi Valley and pivoting
eastward towards the Deep South. Aloft...the base of a deep
trough that encompasses the eastern half of the nation was
pivoting across our area, while a potent shortwave trough located
north of our area was approaching the Delmarva region.  The 00Z
sounding at Jacksonville revealed a PWAT of only 0.17 inches,
which was a record low for the date and time, with values below
0.25 inches in place area-wide. The sounding also measured west-
southwesterly winds in excess of 150 knots above 275 millibars
(about 33,000 feet), with these strong winds transporting a thin
cirrus layer at these high altitudes from the Gulf across the
skies of northeast and north central FL. The strength of the
arctic high pressure center to our west was keeping a tight local
pressure gradient in place across northeast and north central FL,
where northwesterly winds were sustained at 10-20 mph with higher
gusts. The local pressure gradient was beginning to loosen across
southeast GA, where wind speeds at inland locations have
diminished to the 5-10 mph range as of 06Z. Strong cold air
advection has already dropped surface temperatures below freezing
across inland southeast GA, with 30s prevailing elsewhere all the
way to the Atlantic coastal communities. Wind chill values at 06Z
were falling through the 20s at most locations. The most
impressive element of this early season Arctic blast is the
exceptionally low and daily record breaking dewpoints, which have
plunged into the teens across southeast GA and northeast FL and
around 20 for portions of north central FL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Arctic high pressure will continue to progress east-southeastward
across the Deep South today, becoming centered over northeast FL
tonight. As the base of deep troughing swings offshore this
morning, the thin cirrus shield currently moving across northeast
and north central FL will shift southward after sunrise, with full
sunshine expected area-wide this afternoon. Following a widespread
light freeze for southeast GA and locations west of the St. Johns
River in our FL counties and Wind Chill values bottoming out in
the upper teens to mid 20s area-wide early this morning, a tight
local pressure gradient will create another period of gusty
northwesterly winds after sunrise through the the late morning
hours, especially along the I-95 corridor. Our local pressure
gradient will then loosen quickly this afternoon and evening as
Arctic high pressure moves directly towards our area. Highs today
will average about 20 degrees below mid- November climatology,
with most locations only reaching the 50-55 degree range this
afternoon, except upper 50s for portions of north central FL.
These values will be near record low maximums for Veterans Day
(see "Climate" section below for details).

Radiational cooling will take place tonight, with light west-
southwesterly winds developing in the low levels overnight across
southeast GA as high pressure settles over northeast and north
central FL. Dewpoints will only slowly rise into the 20s
overnight, with widespread frost expected at inland locations and
areas of frost extending to the northeast FL Atlantic coastal
communities as well as urban locations such as downtown
Jacksonville. We opted to drop lows a few degrees below model
blends to account for radiational cooling and the exceptionally
dry air mass, which yields lows in the mid to upper 20s for inland
locations along the I-10 corridor and around 30 elsewhere,
ranging to the mid and upper 30s at the Atlantic coastal
communities and urban locations, where Frost Advisories have been
issued after midnight tonight. Freeze Watches have been upgraded
to warnings elsewhere and were extended to include the
agricultural communities surrounding the St. Johns River basin in
western St. Johns and inland portions of Flagler County, where
lows will likely fall to near freezing by sunrise on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Wednesday, high pressure will slowly weaken through the day and
settle southward into the NE Gulf waters/north central Florida.
Light westerly winds 5-10 mph over NE FL will become more west
southwest into SE GA under sunny skies as the atmosphere remains
too dry for clouds. Highs will rebound under the sunshine and
rising heights into the upper 60s.

Wednesday night, cold air advection will shut off due to zonal
flow aloft as broad troughing extends from Ontario southeast into
the Mid Atlantic. Clear skies will allow for radiational cooling,
but lows will not be as cold in the low 40s inland, mid 40s east
of the St Johns river and upper 40s along the coast.

Thursday, a dry cold front will press south through the area with
winds turning northwest but remaining light under sunny skies as
another high pressure center builds in from the north. Strong
subsidence underneath strong ridging aloft building in from the
central US will continue to suppress clouds and limit moisture
recovery through Friday as Precipitable water levels remain around
the 25th percentile (under 0.70 inches). This will allow lows Friday
morning and Saturday morning to fall below normal with low 40s
inland over SE GA, mid 40s over inland NE FL, upper 40s near the
St Johns river and low to mid 50s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Saturday, strong ridging over the Southeastern states will keep
surface high pressure axis across the region with the ridging
slowly shifting eastward allowing heights to rise and warm highs
into the upper 70s. Light north winds will become variable as the
surface highs moves little to the east through the day. No showers
expected, but a few mid and high level clouds will dot the sky
later in the day

Sunday, high pressure will shifts ESE of the area into the western
Atlantic waters east of the Bahamas. Winds will shift southwesterly
with a few low level clouds returning. Lows will begin near normal
and warm to above normal levels in the afternoon under mostly
sunny skies. A few sprinkles or very light showers may shift into
inland areas from the Gulf, but otherwise mostly dry conditions
expected.

Monday, a developing storm system to the west will be slow to shift
closer to the region as a backdoor cold front to the north extending
from a strong low developing off the New England coast moves into
Nova Scotia. Higher moisture will stream eastward south of the front
into our area and isolated showers may organize over the western
portions in the light west to west southwest flow. Highs will warm
further to around 80 degrees over NE FL and the upper 70s over
SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions this period. Morning gustiness, will
begin to subiside this afternoon, with near calm winds for
Tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Strong high pressure building into the southeastern states will
keep gusty northwesterly winds and Gale Warnings in place
through around sunrise for the GA waters and through the late
morning hours for the northeast FL waters. Seas near shore of 4-6
feet for the GA waters and 5-7 feet for the northeast FL waters
early this morning will begin to subside this afternoon.
Meanwhile, seas of 5-11 feet offshore this morning will subside
this afternoon. High pressure will shift eastward towards our
region this evening, allowing northwesterly winds and seas to
gradually diminish below Small Craft Advisory levels throughout
our local waters.

High pressure will then shift southward over the FL peninsula on
Thursday ahead of a weakening and dry frontal boundary that will
push southward and dissipate across our local waters on Thursday
night. Another high pressure center building over the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday will settle southward, moving directly over our
area by Friday night and Saturday. Seas of 2-3 feet will
prevail both near shore and offshore from Wednesday through at
least the upcoming weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

High Pressure will shift eastward along the FL Panhandle coast
into the area through tonight. After a chilly start, afternoon
MinRH values will fall below critical levels into the mid 20s
today, with winds diminishing enough to prevent Red Flag Warning
conditions as winds become 5-10 mph over Southeast GA and 10-15
mph over Northeast FL this afternoon, but meet elevated fire
danger conditions. Dry conditions repeat Wednesday afternoon as
high pressure slowly weakens and settles into north central FL,
but light winds should prevail under the high leading to elevated
fire weather danger conditions. The high will settle south of the
area early Thursday as a dry cold front moves in from the north.
Dispersions will be fair over Northeast FL midweek and in the good
range over southeast GA with fair to poor dispersions Friday and
Saturday as high pressure builds over the area from the north.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Record low maximum temperatures today (Tuesday Nov 11th)

KJAX: 53/1917
KCRG: 59/1996
KGNV: 55/1953
KAMG: 53/1968

Record low temperatures for today and Wednesday:

November 11:
KJAX: 35/1977
KCRG: 37/1991
KGNV: 31/1943
KAMG: 27/1943

November 12:
KJAX: 31/2011
KCRG: 35/2011
KGNV: 30/2011
KAMG: 27/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  31  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  52  36  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  53  31  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  55  37  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  55  30  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  55  31  68  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-
     322-340-422-425-522.

     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Wednesday for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-
     225-232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522-633.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-
     024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ125-138-
     233-325-333-433-533.

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Wednesday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-
     149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

AM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ450.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ452-454-472-474.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this
     afternoon for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$