418
FXUS62 KJAX 141403
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1003 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Highest impacts:
  St. Johns River Basin south of Duval County. Increasing water
  levels again mid-week

- Moderate to High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

- Small Craft Advisory Returns Wednesday Outer Waters

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Fog this morning has dissipated quickly under clearing skies. A
deep northerly flow today with generally dry conditions will
continue, with a weak frontal boundary/trough moving south over
the area late today through tonight. Mostly clear/clear skies and
north-northeast winds up to about 5-15 mph rest of today with pleasant
temps in the 80s this aftn. Little change needed with the weather
forecast.

For the coastal areas, latest buoys reported seas of 3-4 ft over
the northeast FL waters. This suggests a high rip current risk and
matches well with guidance. Therefore, started the high rip current
risk for northeast FL now, and hazard products have been updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Dry post frontal northeasterly flow will keep conditions dry
while steering stratocumulus inland. There could be a few
sprinkles that brush the coastal areas of NE FL, mainly south of
St Augustine during the afternoon Wednesday. Another reinforcing
dry front will keep coastal conditions breezy through Thursday as
a wedge of high pressure to the north begins to move to the coast
of the Carolinas Thursday night resulting in a shift to an
easterly onshore flow. There could be some patchy fog develop
beneath clear skies late Thursday night as winds decouple.

A pleasant week ahead with cool mornings in the mid 50s inland
and mid 60s at the coast and highs pushing to the low/mid 80s.
Afternoon temps will be lower at the coast due to the cooler
Atlantic sea breeze influence.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Dry conditions persist to end the week and into next weekend as
high pressure builds off the coast as the next frontal system
approaches from the west. Comfortable, near-climo temperatures are
expected beneath a flattening ridge and eventually a zone mid
level flow. Some warming is likely to close out the weekend as
flow turns southerly ahead of a warm front lifting out of the
Gulf.

In the extended forecast there is still disagreement on how and
when the incoming cold front will reach the area. The scenarios
being considered are dependent on the upper trough amplification.
There is better agreement this morning on a deeper trough pushing
a tongue of moisture out of the Gulf ahead of the front. Chances
for rain has increased some but, due to the loss of upper dynamics
and the time it will take to overcome the lingering dry air
aloft, PoP is still on the low side (<30%). Cannot rule out
isolated thunderstorm potential Sunday as the front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Patchy to areas of fog this morning will result in restrictions around
VQQ, JAX, and GNV and will improve to VFR by 14z. VFR prevails thereafter.
Does not look like much chance for fog late tonight again, but it
can`t be totally ruled out for VQQ. Light winds will become north-
northeast about 4-10 kt later today after 14z-15z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Northeast winds increase later today and into Wednesday as a
front moves across the local waters and high pressure builds
northeast of the region through the end of the week. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected to return for at least the
offshore waters by Wednesday. Elevated winds and seas continue
through Friday with dry weather.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for area beaches today with an
expected return to high risk for all local beaches by Wednesday as
onshore flow increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  57  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  81  65  77  64 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  85  62  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  81  67  79  66 /   0   0  10   0
GNV  86  60  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  85  62  82  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ038-132-
     137-138-333-633.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through late
     Thursday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$