377
FXUS62 KJAX 290828
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
428 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal Flood Warnings Remain in Effect through early this
  Afternoon for Most of the Northeast FL Atlantic Coast and
  Intracoastal Waterway. Coastal Flood Advisories are now posted
  along the Southeast GA Atlantic Coast and portions of the
  Northeast FL Atlantic Coast.

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend.
  Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal Flooding within the St.
  Johns River Basin Continues. High Surf Advisory Continues
  through Tonight at the Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk for Rip
  Currents at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend.
  Additional Beach Erosion is Expected around Times of High
  Tide. Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters through at
  least Friday.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Highlights:

- Coastal Flood Warnings Remain in Effect through early this
  Afternoon for Most of the Northeast FL Atlantic Coast and
  Intracoastal Waterway. Coastal Flood Advisories are now posted
  along the Southeast GA Atlantic Coast and portions of the
  Northeast FL Atlantic Coast.

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend.
  Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal Flooding within the St.
  Johns River Basin Continues. High Surf Advisory Continues
  through Tonight at the Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk for Rip
  Currents at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend.
  Additional Beach Erosion is Expected around Times of High
  Tide. Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters through at
  least Friday.

Early morning surface analysis depicts strong high pressure
(1032 millibars) now centered east of coastal New England,
with this feature extending its axis southwestward across the
southern Appalachians. Meanwhile, a wavy and stationary frontal
boundary was stretching from Cuba east-northeastward across the
northern Bahamas. Aloft...ridging positioned over the southern
Gulf continues to nudge its axis northeastward across our
region, while troughing previously cutoff over the Bahamas was
lifting northeastward and further away from our region. Latest
GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates
that deep onshore flow was scouring out the seasonably dry air
mass that was in place across inland southeast GA and the
northern Suwannee Valley, where PWATs have risen slightly to the
0.75 to 1 inch range, while values elsewhere were now in the 1-
1.5 inch range. Low stratus cloud cover continues to expand in
this increasingly moist air mass for locations south of
Waycross, with breaks in this stratus over southern portions of
the St. Johns River basin. Temperatures at 08Z were mostly in
the low to mid 60s across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley, ranging to the upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere.
Dewpoints ranged from the upper 50s for locations north of
Waycross in southeast GA to the 60s elsewhere.

Low stratus cloud cover should continue to overspread locations
to the south and east of Waycross through the early morning
hours. This cloud cover should lift to a cumulus deck by the
late morning hours, with additional marine stratocumulus cloud
cover advecting onshore through tonight as weakening high
pressure over the southeastern states and stubborn coastal
troughing situated over our near shore Atlantic waters maintain
breezy northeasterly low and mid level flow across our area.
This convergent flow and ample moisture will likely bands of
scattered to numerous showers through tonight over the Atlantic
waters that will advect onshore across coastal northeast FL,
mainly for locations south of Mayport. This activity should move
across the St. Johns River to the south of Jacksonville later
this morning, perhaps approaching locations along and east of
the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in northeast and north central FL
this afternoon and evening. Plenty of cloud cover and breezy
northeasterly winds will keep coastal highs mostly in the mid to
upper 70s, with breaks in the cloud cover late this morning and
early this afternoon boosting inland highs to the lower 80s,
with a few mid 80s possible across north central FL.

Marine stratocumulus will continue to stream onshore across our
region tonight, which should limit the potential for lower
stratus clouds to redevelop across our area overnight. Bands of
isolated to widely scattered showers may continue to advect
across coastal northeast FL and southern portions of the St.
Johns River basin, mainly for locations from St. Augustine to
Green Cove Springs and points southward. Winds will decouple at
inland locations in southeast GA and the northern Suwannee
Valley overnight, with breaks in the stratocumulus allowing lows
to fall to the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows elsewhere will
remain in the mid and upper 60s, except around 70 at the
northeast FL beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal Hazards Continue, Especially for the St. Johns River.

- Thunderstorm Potential for Northeast FL Saturday Night.

Onshore flow will remain rather unchanged and "status quo" on
Friday  with similar breezy flow and occasional coastal showers
similar to the previous several days. The primary changes will
come Friday Night and into Saturday, as a backdoor type of cold
front quickly moves southward across our region, and a "re-
enforcing" ridge of high pressure builds across the southeastern
states in its wake. This will enhance the flow a bit on
Saturday for northeast FL but especially southeast GA where this
flow has been lighter on average. Isolated to scattered showers
near the coast and portions of northeast FL will also persist,
as temperatures also drop a bit as well with mid to upper 70s
more common overall after more of a range of mid 70s to low 80s
on Friday. A few showers will also be possible even into inland
areas during the day on Saturday as well, as the front quickly
drops southward. Instability will be limited, and therefore
thunderstorms do not appear likely.

Things start to get more active Saturday Night as guidance is in
good agreement with respect to some shortwave energy moving into
northeast FL and southeast GA. This energy will interact with
the now nearly stationary front just south of our region, and
combined with the beginnings or moisture advection into our
southern counties will result in an increase in shower activity
as well as some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
potential. This will spread northward into Sunday, though more
on that below.

Regarding Coastal Hazards: Most if not all of the ongoing
hazards are expected to continue Friday and into the weekend,
especially within the St. Johns River as higher water levels
will remain the most trapped. We will continue to evaluate
levels over the coming days, but at least Coastal Flood
Advisories are likely to continue area-wide, with Coastal Flood
Warnings possible to continue for at least upstream portions of
the St. Johns River.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period:
- Coastal Hazards Likely to Continue through at Least the
  Weekend.

- Thunderstorm Potential Sunday and Sunday Night

Sunday is expected to be a warmer, more humid and active day as
short wave energy moves through the region, resulting in more
widespread showers and t`storms, especially across northeast FL
closer to the stationary boundary just south of the area.
Onshore flow will then return for at least Monday and into
Tuesday as high pressure to our northeast moves very little,
before a much stronger front approaches the area around
Wednesday/Wednesday Night. Though we will be moving away from
the full moon, tidal flooding is likely to continue into the
long term, especially for portions of the St. Johns River where
elevated water levels will have the hardest time receding.
Temperatures will start the period near normal Sunday and Monday
before rising towards above normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Low stratus ceilings will continue to overspread the regional
terminals overnight, except at SGJ, where VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through around 15Z. IFR conditions are
otherwise likely at the Duval County terminals, GNV, and SSI
through around 13Z-14Z. Prevailing MVFR ceilings are expected to
arrive at SGJ by 15Z, with occasional showers moving onshore
from the near shore Atlantic waters and potentially impacting
SGJ, CRG, GNV, and VQQ throughout the afternoon hours. However,
confidence in timing and coverage remain too low to indicate
anything other than vicinity coverage at this time. Prevailing
MVFR ceilings are expected through at least 00Z Friday at the
regional terminals, with ceilings gradually lifting to the 2,000
- 3,000 foot range after 20Z. MVFR ceilings are likely to
prevail after 00Z at SGJ. North to northeasterly surface winds
will remain sustained around 10 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal
terminals through around 12Z, with speeds inland sustained at
5-10 knots. Northeasterly surface winds will then increase to
around 10 knots by 14Z at the inland terminals and to around 15
knots and gusty at the regional terminals towards 18Z. Speeds
will then diminish to around 10 knots for the inland terminals
and 10-15 knots at the coastal terminals after 00Z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure stretching from coastal New England
southwestward through the southern Appalachians will shift
southward while gradually weakening through tonight.
Meanwhile, a trough will remain situated across the Bahamas and
southeast Florida through tonight. High pressure will continue
to wedge down the southeastern seaboard, creating gusty north-
northeasterly winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions through
Friday. Otherwise, coastal troughing will remain situated over
our near shore waters through early next week, with this feature
generating scattered to numerous showers through Friday.

Another strong high pressure center building southeastward from
the Upper Midwest on Friday will reach the Mid-Atlantic coast
by Sunday, with this feature wedging down the southeastern
seaboard this weekend and early next week. Although a brief lull
in winds and seas is possible late Friday and early Saturday,
easterly winds may strengthen to Small Craft Advisory levels
this weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly
northward across the Florida peninsula this weekend may generate
numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and
Monday across our local waters.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories remain in effect
for the northeast FL beaches through Thursday night, where
breakers of 6 to 8 feet will prevail. Breakers of 3 to 6 feet
will prevail at the southeast GA beaches through Friday. These
elevated, rough surf conditions will maintain a high risk of
deadly rip currents at all area beaches through the upcoming
weekend, and additional beach erosion is likely to occur around
times of high tide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Onshore flow will persist through the rest of the week and into
the weekend as well. Showers will continue to occasionally
move onshore through Friday accordingly, mainly across northeast
FL. Poor to fair dispersions will continue near the coast
through Friday, while in the fair to good range inland with
better mixing. Areas of high nighttime dispersion will also
continue near the coast through Thursday Night. The pattern
changes this weekend as a cold front approaches from the
northwest, which will return chances for higher coverage of
showers and thunderstorms this weekend. This will also bring a
slightly stronger surge of onshore flow ahead of the front, and
therefore more widespread good dispersions accordingly.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Breezy northeasterly winds will combine with lingering high
astronomical tide values to maintain moderate tidal flooding
through  early this afternoon along our local Atlantic coast
from Mayport southward, including the adjacent the Intracoastal
Waterway (ICWW) and the entirety of the St. Johns River basin.
Water levels will generally reach 2 - 2.5 feet above Mean
Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of high tide. A Coastal
Flood Advisory is now in effect for coastal Glynn, Camden, and
Nassau Counties through Friday afternoon, where mostly minor
flooding is expected around times of high tide, as water levels
generally reach 1.5 - 2 feet above MHHW. Coastal Duval, St.
Johns and Flagler Counties will transition to a Coastal Flood
Advisory later this afternoon through Friday afternoon, as tide
levels begin to gradually subside. Moderate tidal flooding may
linger into the upcoming weekend within the St. Johns River
basin. The long duration of this strong onshore wind event will
produce additional beach erosion during each high tide cycle
through at least Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  59  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  76  64  75  66 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  79  65  78  67 /  10   0  10   0
SGJ  78  70  77  70 /  60  30  50  20
GNV  81  67  82  68 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  82  68  83  69 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-132-
     137-325-633.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for FLZ124.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ125-
     138-225-233-333.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EDT
     Friday for FLZ125-138-225-233-333.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for AMZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ452-454-470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$