398
FXUS63 KJKL 271136
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
736 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly to partly sunny skies, mild days, and chilly nights
  persist through the end of the work week.

- Fog is likely near the area`s main stem rivers and lakes late
  each night and for a few hours after daybreak.

- Rain chances increase as the calendar changes to November this
  weekend, so interests with outdoor Halloween plans are
  encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026

Our "broken record" weather pattern remains stuck on the same
line each day. Satellite imagery shows tentacles of fog beginning
to snake their way through the deeper river valleys under a few
passing high cirrus. Meanwhile, thermometers range from the upper
30s/lower 40s in the coolest hollows to the lower/mid 50s on
thermal belt ridges. These quiescent conditions are courtesy of
high pressure centered over the Southern Appalachians. To our
north, there is a stalled frontal boundary extending from Cape
Cod to a weak low over southwestern Iowa. Another surface high
around 1035 mb is in place further north over Northern Ontario.
Translating to the upper levels, 500 hPa ridging extends from the
Gulf of America northward to over the Great Lakes, while a mean
trough is in place over the Western CONUS. Two shortwaves are
ejecting northeast out of that troughing: the first is over the
Dakotas while the second is over Kansas and Oklahoma.

Moisture streaming out ahead of those shortwaves will be the
only fly in the ointment in our otherwise long-duration stretch
of clear skies, resulting in periods of mid- and high-level
cloud cover over the next 36 hours. The lead shortwave and its
attendant surface low will also pull the stalled frontal
boundary back to the north, keeping eastern Kentucky solidly in
the warm sector. As a result, look for partly to mostly sunny
skies over the next couple of days while nighttime valley fog
coverage may be slightly less due to less efficient radiative
cooling. It will remain quite mild with high temperatures ranging
in the lower to mid 70s during the day, while low temperatures
range from the lower 40s to mid 50s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 547 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026

The long-term period opens Wednesday evening with a low-amplitude
pattern across the CONUS - broad 500 hPa ridging in place over the
Eastern CONUS with upstream troughing over the Western CONUS. At the
surface, ~1030 mb surface high pressure is centered off the New
England Coast with ridging extending southwestward across the
Southern Appalachians to the western Gulf Coast. To our northwest,
low pressure is over the Upper Midwest with a cold front
extending southwest into Nebraska and then northwest across the
Northern Rockies to another weak low near Vancouver Island.

The trough will be amplifying over the Western CONUS at the start
of the period, which will be accompanied by corresponding, albeit
weak, height rises over much of the eastern CONUS into Friday.
This being the case, surface high pressure off the Atlantic shears
apart, with the westward portion cresting over the Southern
Appalachians on Thursday night. Ridge-valley temperature splits
are likely to sharpen for both Wednesday and Thursday nights with
the loss of cloud cover allowing for more efficient radiative
cooling. This should also favor decent nocturnal fog formation in
the prone valleys, mainly near lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.

A northern-stream shortwave trough then rides over the ridge on
Friday. This will support the cold front sagging southward toward
the Ohio River, stalling over or just north of our area due to a
loss of upper-level support. With this setup, the next notable
weathermaker (upper-level energy associated with former tropical
system Vance in the eastern Pacific) will rise northward across
Mexico and attempt to ride through and quash the lingering ridge.
This robust disturbance will send PWATs surging higher to between
1.2 and 1.3 inches by Sunday, exceeding the 90th percentile of
LREF climatology for this time of year. The combination of upper-
level energy and Gulf moisture surging northward and interacting
with the stalled boundary will set the stage for our first
rainfall in about 2 weeks across most of eastern Kentucky. Present
model timing favors this disturbance`s associated rainfall
developing late Saturday night. With that being said, the forecast
still bears watching on Halloween evening, as a slightly faster
arrival could mean the difference between a completely dry and
mild evening versus an increasingly damp one.

In sensible terms, look for mostly clear skies to return Wednesday
evening and persist through Thursday night before thickening clouds
return for Friday and especially the upcoming weekend. Rain chances
arrive late Saturday and Saturday night, peaking on Sunday (around
60 percent PoP) before diminishing, at least temporarily, for
Monday. High temperatures in the mid 70s can be expected through
Saturday, then cool slightly for Sunday and Monday with thicker
cloud cover and higher rain chances. Nighttime lows will generally
be coolest on the first couple of nights, ranging in the 40s to
near 50F, but then moderating into the 50s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026

There will be periods of high clouds crossing the area, but winds
are expected to remain light through the period. Valley fog along
the rivers, largest creeks, and lakes is causing MVFR and worse
reductions at TAF issuance but should improve through ~13-14Z.
This fog could drift and impact SME, thus there is a TEMPO group
there with MVFR reductions through 14Z. Otherwise, VFR should
return areawide as the valley fog lifts this morning and
dissipates.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/CMC/JP