397
FXUS63 KJKL 161112
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
612 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and much drier air arrives for today and Monday behind
  this morning`s cold front passage.

- Multiple weather systems could bring rain at times next week
  starting late Monday night.

- Above normal temperatures return for later Tuesday through
  Friday before cooler conditions return for next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

There are no major changes to the forecast with the pre-dawn
update.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

A much cooler and drier air mass under clear skies works its way
over the region today and persists through Monday behind this
morning`s cold front passage. The strong jet stream rounding the
upper low/trough over the Northeast US will remain in close enough
proximity to help produce northwest wind gusts up to around 20
mph through this afternoon before diminishing this evening. The
increased mixing despite cold advection will allow for highs in
the mid to upper 50s, with a few lower 60s readings possible
across the south.

Lows tonight will range from around 30 to 35 degrees across the
area as cold advection continues yet weakens with time under clear
skies.

Monday will be a bit drier than this afternoon with mid-level
heights increasing ahead of a ridge axis that reaches the area
Monday evening, along with the jet stream aloft departing
northeast through the Mid-Atlantic region. Thus, with the much
cooler start to the day along with lighter winds highs will be a
few degrees cooler than today in the lower to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

Mid-level ridge axis passes over the area Monday evening, with a
warm front approaching and passing the area late Monday night into
early Tuesday, with warm advection increasing through the day
ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance. Models suggest a
fairly decent low-level jet stream from the Middle Tennessee
Valley pointed into eastern Kentucky, so the late Tuesday into
the Tuesday overnight period needs to be watched for the potential
for sufficient instability that could support a few
thunderstorms, especially since it appears wind shear will be
adequate to support a marginal severe thunderstorm threat if that
increased instability can materialize.

Another shortwave moving up the Ohio Valley from west to east later
Wednesday into Wednesday night could bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms, before a brief ridge passes over the
area Thursday ahead of a larger system develops over the center of
the country and ushers deeper moisture northwards from the Gulf up
the Mississippi River Valley ahead of a cold front that looks to
cross the area either late Friday or early Saturday. Models then
suggest a cooler and drier air mass moving over the region behind
the cold front passage.

Temperatures transition warmer Tuesday as a warm front crosses the
area from the southwest, with above normal temperatures in the 60s
to lower 70s for highs and 50s for lows through the remainder of
the week, before cooler temperatures return for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

As of 11z, a cold front over far southeastern Kentucky is crossing
into Virginia, with clearing skies and VFR conditions prevailing
in its wake at all of the TAF sites. These clear to mostly clear
skies and VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF
period. Meanwhile, occasionally gusty northwesterly winds this
morning will become more persistent and widespread by 14z-15z
with any kind of surface heating and mixing, with gusts 15 to 20
kts continuing through the afternoon before sustained winds and
wind gusts diminish this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC