Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
806 FXUS62 KKEY 020939 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 439 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Moderate east to southeast breezes will gradually slacken and veer to the south to southwest. -Breezes will continue to slacken and veer as we head into the middle of the week, and some areas of fog may develop over local waters by early Wenesday morning. -A benign forecast is anticipated for much of the week with rain chances near nil, increased humidity initially, before a dip with frontal passage mid week before increasing again by the weekend. Temperatures will also remain above normal early week, near normal mid week, and then above normal again by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 440 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 A relatively uneventful early morning is underway across the Keys on this second day of December. KBYX radar detects a couple boundaries drifting through our CWA with a few shallow showers bubbling near the Dry Tortugas and the 409 Humps. GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery paints a similar picture with a scattered field of stratocumulus between the rope clouds notating convergence boundaries in our area. Looking north outside of our area, a mass of cloud cover associated with a trough marching towards the Eastern Seaboard is painted over much of southeast CONUS. The surface high located just ahead of this feature continues to promote moderate southeast to south breezes across the Reef. Meanwhile, temperatures are a touch warmer than this time yesterday with values in the upper 70s but feeling just as steamy with dew points persisting in the lower 70s. The short term forecast is one describing a transition between patterns. Deep layer troughing over the Ohio River Valley will continue to press east shifting the surface high over the Eastern Seaboard into the Atlantic. This will result in our moderate southeast breezes slackening and veering to the southwest by the end of the day. Tonight the trend will continue as winds continue to turn to the northwest ahead of the associated surface front lumbering southeast through mainland Florida and the western Gulf. While rain chances still float around near nil, warm temperatures and moist dewpoints over cooler waters is a recipe for some fog development north of the island chain early tomorrow morning. This is further enhanced by a northwesterly wind direction that will help advect already formed fog from mainalnd`s coastline. Later on Wednesday, the cold front is progged to scrape through our area. This will bring a small and brief respite to ongoing mild conditions. Low temperatures are currently expected to dip to near 70 Thursday morning with dewpoints falling to the upper 60s. Of course, this weak frontal passage`s influence will be short lived as southerly winds and warmer temperatures quickly return in time for the weekend. As the moist air mass never really gets cleared out, slight rain chances will return to the Keys as winds return to their more familiar southeasterly positions. Though, if extended guidance is to be believed, another cold front (this time somewhat stronger) is set to sweep through in the middle of next week drying things out once again. We just might be seeing some "winter" weather here then, but stay tuned for updates. && .MARINE... Issued at 440 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure across the area will continue to promote gentle to moderate southeast breezes this morning as it shifts into the western North Atlantic. A developing storm system on the heels of this high will result in a weakening of the pressure gradient across the Keys through early Wednesday. Its corresponding cold front is expected to press through the Keys mid to late week resulting in freshening north to northeast breezes. Another surface high builds back in following the front with gentle broadly southern breezes returning in time for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 440 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for the 06Z TAF period at both EYW and MTH. Near surface winds will veer during the period from southeasterly, to southerly, to west northwesterly by sunset as a cold front moves towards the Florida Keys. Isolated early morning showers are possible, but not at sufficient chance to include in the TAFs. Marine fog may become a problem late in the TAF period, but is more likely after the 06Z period ends. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2018, a daily warm low temperature of 81F was recorded at Key West. This observation set the record as the warmest low temperature record in December. In addition, the average daily temperature on this day was 83.0 F, making it the warmest meteorological winter day on record in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 71 79 70 / 10 10 10 0 Marathon 82 71 78 70 / 10 10 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest