Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
955 FXUS62 KKEY 060233 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1033 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A robust surface high centered off the northeast Atlantic Coast continues to blanket the eastern United States. However, an inverted trough continues to weaken as it moves westward towards South Florida. This trough is resulting in winds being quite light and tending northeast to east across the Keys this evening, but with quite a bit of variability creeping in. This trough, along with earlier deep layered troughing across the Gulf has resulted in very high precipitable water. This evenings sounding indicated 2.21 inches. In addition, CAPE was ample. However, some lower level inhibition and weak forcing has resulted in very little convective activity across the forecast area over the past several hours. Very muggy conditions are in place with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the upper 70s. The inverted trough will continue to weaken as it moves into the Keys region overnight. This will act to keep winds light and broadly easterly. Deep layered moisture will remain very high with ample CAPE. Guidance hints that lower level inhibition will weaken slightly overnight. This along with the usual nocturnal peak in confluent flow should help to trigger isolated to scattered convective activity. While overall forcing will be weak due to the meager flow, mesoscale models indicate activity will pick up overnight. As a result, will maintain mid chance PoPs, which is between global guidance. Sticky conditions will continue with overnight lows in the upper 70s and very near the dew point. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A broad robust surface high is centered off the northeast Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, a weakening inverted trough between South Florida and the Bahamas will continue to wash out through the overnight. This is resulting in light breezes, tending northeast to east. Essentially no changes will be made in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. There will be a chance for sub VFR conditions due to the expected convective development late. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest