675
FXUS62 KKEY 311923
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
323 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Coastal flooding will continue to gradually decrease over the
  weekend, but receding rates will be slow, especially in the
  Upper Keys.

- Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes may freshen to moderate
  to fresh tonight, but are expected to slacken again tomorrow.

- A wet, stormy period is expected tonight through Monday. Locally
  heavy rainfall, if timed with high tides, may exacerbate coastal
  flooding hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
A broad high pressure system set up over New England and
Pennsylvania. Breezes along the Florida Peninsula freshened last
night as the pressure gradient tightened, and the high developed
enough to finally push breezes across the Keys back to east-
southeasterly. Keys residents could feel the increase in humidity
by stepping outside. Dew points across the Keys rose into the
upper 70s. Satellite derived Advected Layer PWAT late this
afternoon showed an increasing amount of moisture in the 700 to
500 mb layer. This lined up temporally with the development of
thunderstorms over the Florida Straits. The environment was in the
process of destabilizing and more than sufficient moisture is
present. All the environment lacks is a source of lift to organize
showers.

An upper level trough, the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance,
moved over the northwestern Gulf last night. This shortwave will
be able to travel along the Gulf Coast and provide a source of
upper level divergence starting early tomorrow morning. The
challenge with this trough is that the forcing will not be
focused. Ongoing wind convergence south of the Keys is broad.
Statistical guidance suggests PoPs may be able to approach 80
percent for portions of the Keys. However, the developing pattern
is not one that will last for a long period of time. The region of
enhanced divergence will move west of the Keys as early as Monday
night. While November may start out with a burst of rainy season
weather, we are steadily approaching the dry season.

Once the wet period comes to an end, the forecast for next week
becomes more uncertain. While broad layer ridging is expected to
prevail across the eastern United States, a strong mid latitude
trough is on track to develop over the Great Plains. Exactly how
much this trough is able to weaken the ridge is uncertain, and
model ensembles are not favoring one solution over another. In
essence, the ensembles are moderating the more extreme solutions.
Statistical guidance suggests a weak cold front may move across
the Keys late next week, but there is no agreement on the timing
or magnitude. Check back later, because we will have a better idea
of this frontal system after this weekend`s bout of moisture.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds
headlines are in effect for the waters of Florida Bay, Bayside and
Gulfside waters, Eastern Hawk Channel, and the eastern Straits of
Florida. No additional watches, warnings, or advisories are in
effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys.

From synopsis: a broad area of high pressure over the eastern
United States will sustain gentle to moderate, occasionally fresh,
breezes across the FLorida Keys waters this weekend. Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds headlines are in
effect for portions of the marine zones tonight. Breezes are on
track to slacken tomorrow, but stronger winds along the east coast
will generate a higher northerly swell for the waters south of
the Upper Keys. Expect breezes to slacken during the weekend with
light to gentle breezes possible midweek. Shower chances will be
elevated through Monday with the peak expected on Sunday. Drier
conditions will be able to set up during the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming
period. Deep tropical moisture returned to the Keys, and thus
rounds of VCSH are required in the TAFs. IFR to MVFR conditions
are possible near SHRA, with the heaviest SHRA capable of LIFR
VIS. Expect showers to be short lived with VIS and CIGs clearing
outside of rainfall. Near surface winds outside of showers will
remain east to southeasterly near 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1999, the daily record
rainfall of 4.05" was recorded in Marathon. Precipitation records
for Marathon date back to 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  77  83  75  83 /  70  80  70  50
Marathon  77  84  76  83 /  70  70  70  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ077-078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....BT

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