Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
840 FXUS62 KKEY 080314 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1014 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -A pronounced low pressure system developing over the eastern United States will support slackening east to southeasterly breezes this weekend. -Seasonal King Tides will likely support bouts of minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide through the weekend. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. -Confidence continues to increase that a significant cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Monday, ushering much cooler and windy conditions for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1016 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 The first week of November is coming to an uneventful close across the Florida Keys. Keen eyed observers of the KBYX radar returns may notice some northeastward moving returns over the Outer Gulf. That would be weak showers or virga from a thick layer of stratocumulus highlighted by GOES-E nighttime microphysics observations. Surprisingly, these weak echoes are the only surface reflection of a weak shortwave trough moving across the Florida Peninsula. Winds sampled by the 00Z KKEY sounding showed a veering wind profile, usually supportive of convection, and a PWAT slightly below the 90th percentile for the evening. Dew points across the island chain are still in the low to mid 70s. The problem is a plume of dry air concentrated between 4,000 and 10,000 ft. Low level warming and additional dry air will keep shower chances minimal overnight. Based on the current environment, no changes were made to the overnight forecast. Quiet is not an apt descriptor for weather across the rest of the United States. A sharp, well developed trough over the eastern CONUS was responsible for weakening the pressure gradient across the Keys enough to see light breezes over the Gulf. Meanwhile, a smaller clipper low is making its way across the Dakotas. These two features will combine to force a large arctic air mass into the CONUS over the weekend. Current statistical model runs suggest the associated cold front will pass over the Florida Keys on Monday. Until then, enjoy the slightly above normal temperatures across the Florida Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 1016 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 From synopsis, high pressure will continue to slide eastward across the central North Atlantic Saturday and Sunday. This will result breezes slackening and potentially becoming variable at times. A potent cold front will push through the Florida Keys marine zones on Monday with fresh to strong northerlies expected in its wake early next week. While the next high builds in behind the front, winds will shift out of the northeast and gradually slacken. Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will remain possible. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for the 00Z TAF period. Winds will remain light and generally easterly. Expect east southeasterly shifts during the day and east northeasterlies during the overnight hours. While showers cannot be ruled out, the threat for VCSH is very low for both EYW and MTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 85 75 85 / 30 20 10 10 Marathon 75 83 75 84 / 20 20 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest