Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
378 FXUS62 KKEY 090301 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1001 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Showers and thunderstorms possible through the overnight ahead of a weak frontal passage. -Light to gentle breezes to freshen to light to moderate. -The cold front is expected to stall over the Florida Straits by mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 It has been a messy evening across the Florida Keys as our KBYX radar has been tracking showers and thunderstorms across the region. Over the past 12 hours, rainfall amounts along our island communities have ranged anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to almost a third of an inch, depending on where the heavier showers were falling. Satellite observations indicate that the strongest activity is still in the distant Florida Straits where some lightning is still occurring, but radar trends have shown a diminishing trend in the vicinity of the island chain. However, wind speed convergence looks like it may be able to encourage another round of showers and thunderstorms, so we will maintain the 50 percent chance of rain for tonight. The 00Z sounding from the balloon launch this evening depicts a nearly saturated environment, and just over 2 inches of precipitable water. Temperatures along the Keys are in the mid 70s, but the cooler air is still just to our north. During the overnight, cooler temps should gradually advect in. The forecast is unfolding as expected, so no updates are needed at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters, but Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds across Bayside and Gulf side, deep Gulf, and Hawk Channel waters. From synopsis, breezes will freshen and clock around to the north to northeast tonight as a fractured frontal boundary move across the Florida Keys marine zones. The front will stall across the Straits of Florida, with the highest shower coverage focused in the distant coastal waters south of the Island Chain. Breezes will fluctuate between gentle and moderate during the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions will continue during the start of the TAF period, but another round of showers and lowered CIGs will lead to periods of MVFR conditions at both terminals. The most likely window of opportunity is currently between 10Z and 20Z, but recent weather trends suggest that the fluctuations between VFR and MVFR will be quick. Breezes will also clock northerly through the nighttime and early morning hours, but crosswind concerns are low as wind speed will between 5 and 10 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 68 78 70 79 / 50 40 30 20 Marathon 70 77 71 79 / 50 40 40 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest