Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
728 FXUS62 KKEY 241758 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 158 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms in association with an easterly wave will gradually decrease through the day. - Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys. - A trough is expected to develop and sit along the eastern and southeast U.S., which may result in an active weather pattern early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Convection has continued to diminish in coverage and strength this afternoon and VCSH will be removed from the terminals around sunset. East to southeast winds of near 10 knots are expected through tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, an easterly wave is currently moving through the Florida Keys, bringing an enhanced coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. Gentle to moderate breezes will ease to light to gentle by late afternoon and evening. Behind this feature, a col will develop across the region by Saturday, leading to a brief period of light and variable winds. Thereafter, breezes will freshen to gentle breezes and back to the west to northwest as a surface trough develops Sunday. Breezes will return from the southwest and west as the trough moves east of the Florida Peninsula early next week. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 444 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 After an active early overnight, we entered a brief lull, but now the atmosphere is coming back to life this hour. Numerous showers are quickly developing across the island chain and mainly waters south of the Keys. This is all due to a broad easterly wave that has been slowly pushing westward the last 12 hours. The axis of this wave still lies to our east, just outside our area of responsibility, but will be moving through the area this morning. The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms look to be on the windward, that is the left side, of the wave and will occur mainly this morning. As the wave exits to the west later today, we will see a gradual decrease in the coverage. At the same time, winds will also be gradually decreasing. By Saturday, the Florida Keys will be left in between features and a col region will set up briefly. This will result in light and variable winds Saturday and Saturday night. Thereafter, a trough will develop and settle across the eastern and southeastern U.S. This trough will wobble in place Sunday through Tuesday, resulting in winds fluctuating between west to northwest and southwest to west. This trough will also contain a fairly moist air mass and we could be looking at a semi-active weather pattern early next week. In addition, given the southwest to west winds, in conjunction with the trough could allow for better chances at reverse cloud lines for the island chain. This will certainly bear worth keeping a close eye on. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest