Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
996 FXUS62 KKEY 290830 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 430 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of showers and thunderstorms expected today and tonight as an unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week. - Mainly light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue through the weekend, though occasional periods of moderate breezes will occur. - The Remnants of Dolly remain East of the Leeward Islands this morning and do not currently pose a threat to the Florida Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 CIMSS products is FINALLY starting to show the pattern changing a bit across the Lower 48. The ridge that has been just south of the Four Corners region is beginning to build and slide east- northeastward across the central United States. Meanwhile, the ridge over the Atlantic has slid a little farther to the southwest and also flexed its muscles a little further westward closer to the Eastern Seaboard. In between these two, the mean layer trough that has been in place is beginning to lift northward with it mainly across the northeastern United States for the time being with the center of the trough located over southeastern Hudson Bay, Canada. At the surface, the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge remains across the Florida Keys this morning. This is promoting east to southeast breezes near 10 knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWATs of 1.7 to 1.9 inches across the Keys with even deeper moisture sitting over the Northwest Bahamas. KBYX radar has been active all night with showers and thunderstorms throughout the area, especially the westernmost portions of the Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 80s and dew points are in the upper 70s. .FORECAST... The unsettled pattern is expected to continue today with no end in sight for the rainier regime. The main picture will continue to feature the Atlantic ridge with its western periphery extending westward into the Keys for the next several days. Moisture undulations will continue to rotate around this ridge with the next moisture plume waiting in the wings, currently over Andros Island. Therefore, based on the increasing moisture as well as the mesoscale models showing this moving into the area today, PoPs have been increased back to 50%. This also still may be too low and may need to be increased later this morning depending on what current radar imagery looks like as we head towards sunrise. This is expected to continue through the weekend with 50% for tonight and Sunday as well. The caveat for tonight is while there might still be a shower or storm, most of the activity on latest guidance suggests later in the overnight bleeding into the morning hours Sunday. Slightly drier air may move into the Keys to start the week, 40% advertised for Monday and Monday night, though, this is expected to be short-lived. Another surge of increasing moisture is expected as we head towards the middle of next week. With that said, the forecast beyond Tuesday night/Wednesday of next week gets rather interesting and is warranting a talking point here now. Of course, we are all watching what was Tropical Storm Dolly which is now the remnants of Dolly trekking westward. This is where we start to scratch our heads and is making for a particularly tricky forecast for the middle to latter half of next week. There is tremendous uncertainty as to what happens with this as it moves westward and we are going to leave this right there. The key takeaways for right now are to anticipate an increase in moisture equaling higher rain chances, increase in cloud cover, and slightly cooler temperatures. We will continue to monitor this over the next several days and provide updates accordingly. The Keys will continue to be dominated by the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge for the next several days. This will continue to yield to peaking and lulling breezes through the weekend and into the early to middle part of next week. However, the wind direction will also follow suit with east to southeast breezes overnight into the morning hours followed by northeast to east breezes in the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime highs will continue to be near 90 degrees with overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s, cooler in and near shower and storms. Dew points will remain soupy in the mid to upper 70s. Granted it is going to be September very soon and Florida will very much live up to its name for this time of year with daily rain chances. TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas for potential tropical cyclone development. The first is East of the Lesser Antilles (Remnants of Dolly) which has a low or near 0 percent chance of development in 48 hours and low or 10 percent chance through the next 7 days. Also, across the Northeastern and North- Central Gulf of America is another area being watched for potential development. This one also has a low or near 0 percent chance of development over 48 hours and low or 10% chance of development through the next 7 days. Both of these areas currently pose no threat to the Keys at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the western periphery of an Atlantic high is expected to maintain control of the Keys for the next several days. This will continue to promote peaking and lulling breezes. The direction will also shift over the coming days with east to southeast breezes overnight and in the morning with northeast to east breezes late afternoon and evening. In addition, the overall flow will keep deep moisture in place across the region with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected in the vicinity of thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 VFR conditions are largely expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. However, with the risk for showers and storms, MVFR conditions are CIGs and VIS will be possible, especially during the morning into early afternoon hours. Also, gusty winds and occasional to frequent lightning will be anticipated with any activity. Near surface winds will remain east to southeast through the period with a potential period of northeast to east breezes again late this afternoon through the evening hours. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2014, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in both Key West and Marathon. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872 and Marathon date back to 1951. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 83 90 83 / 50 50 50 40 Marathon 90 83 90 83 / 50 50 50 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest