743
FXUS62 KKEY 141451
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1051 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Not too much has changed across the Florida Keys this morning.
Shallow strips of fair weather cumulus are streaming across our
area from the southeast with a few clusters of showers north of
the Cay Sal bank and west of the Dry Tortugas (similar to
yesterday). KBYX radar reflectivity notes shower activity near the
island chain is on the decline while the previously mentioned
locations continue to bubble with shallow convection. Meanwhile,
the eastern Straits of Florida have really dried out as CIMSS
MIMIC PW depicts a tongue of lower values advecting in from Cuba.
Thunderstorm activity has been notably lower than previous days so
far as this morning`s KKEY sounding shows more dry subsidence
intruding into the mid to low levels. This should help suppress
deep convective development throughout the day along with weak
anticyclonic surface flow. Overall sparse cloud cover has
temperatures observations up into the mid to upper 80s before the
afternoon once again making for a mildly oppressive near normal
summer day taking dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s into account.
East to southeast breezes along the reef are still moderate in
magnitude but have slackened a touch from before sunrise. The
forecast looks to be on track with no changes needed at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, strong
high pressure centered just east of Bermuda will remain in place
for the next several days. This will support moderate to
occasionally fresh breezes. The high will drift a bit
southeastward over the weekend into early next week, leading to
slightly weaker breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While a
passing shower cannot be ruled out, frequency of popcorn
convection is declining with VCSH mentions likely no longer
necessary baring any sudden changes. Near surface winds will be
out of the east to southeast at 9 to 14 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1957, the daily record high temperature of 94F was
recorded in Key West. Temperatures records for Key West date back to
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  82  88  82 /  30  20  10  20
Marathon  89  82  89  82 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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