Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
771 FXUS62 KKEY 070325 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1025 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Mainly light to gentle southeast breezes expected through the weekend. -Moisture continues to slowly increase resulting in slight chances overnight and Sunday. Moisture continues to further increase Sunday night and Monday resulting in chances of showers ahead of a possible frontal system early next week. -Humidity will also continue to rise with dew points reaching potentially the upper 70s for Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1023 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 December is continuing the theme so far of being warm and humid. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s and dew points are in the lower to mid 70s. Some radiational cooling is occurring again tonight, especially on Big Pine Key, where the RAWS station is currently the cool spot observing 71 degrees this past hour. The Keys remain in a col region this evening which is an area of generally very weak synoptic flow. Any major weather systems are well displaced from the Keys currently. This is promoting mainly east to southeast breezes near 5 knots, occasionally light and variable, at marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain as a result. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics shows most of the cloud cover remaining over the southern distant Straits. KBYX radar has also just started to detect some very shallow showers just north of the Cuba coastline with a few of these trickling into the southern Straits due south of the Lower Keys. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding continues to resemble a mostly dry profile. There is only one small moist layer present between 975 to 950 mb. The wind profile does display a veering wind profile which would be supportive of showers. Winds are southerly near 5 knots at 1000 ft AGL and then veer to west to southwest and increase to near 10 knots around 3000 ft AGL. The PWAT value measured came in at 1.47 inches which is at the 75th percentile for the date and is also much higher when compared to the PWAT value measured just last evening. Instability also continues to increase now being measured around 1200 J/kg. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products also shows an increase in PWAT values across the Keys estimating the values to be between 1.3 to 1.5 inches. Therefore, most of the ingredients are there to support shower development overnight, especially over the marine area south of the Chain. We have the moisture and we have some instability as well as a veering wind profile. The only thing missing is a substantial trigger. Therefore, slight chances for showers remains relevant for overnight with coverage being mostly isolated in nature. No forecast changes needed as a result. && .MARINE... Issued at 1023 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the Florida Keys will lie in a col region through Sunday. This will promote mainly light to gentle southeast breezes, occasionally becoming variable. Thereafter, a developing weather system will move out of the Central Plains and into the Southeast U.S. by Sunday evening. The attendent cold front will sweep through Monday night with a brief period of moderate to fresh breezes. Shower coverage will steadily increase starting today and continuing into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF package. Moisture has been increasing throughout the Keys this evening. Therefore, a slight chance of showers is in the forecast for the overnight and Sunday. However, due to the relatively still low coverage and low confidence in terms of placement and timing, VCSH was not included in the TAF. Near surface winds will remain mainly light and variable overnight before becoming southeast to south Sunday morning and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 74 83 73 / 10 20 30 40 Marathon 82 74 82 74 / 10 20 20 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest