Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 251838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
238 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

GOES-16 reveals a plethora of clouds near the Bahamas that are
rapidly moving to the south. The cloud cover is due to weak
boundaries that have propagated from the weak surface trough near
southern Florida and an occluded frontal boundary to the
southeast of Cape Canaveral. The boundaries and sea breeze will
induce showers and thunderstorms over central and southern Florida
later today. The shower development is depicted by high
resolution models, mainly by the HRRR and CAMS. In contrast, the
Keys should remain relatively dry this afternoon as a drier air
mass still remains in the lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere,
with little vertical motion to bring about ascent. The 12Z
sounding, had an inversion at 900 mb and below normal low-level
moisture, these parameters are making environmental conditions
unfavorable for shower and thunderstorm development. Nevertheless,
in the tropics a puff of air and mesoscale boundaries could bring
about isolated showers. Tonight, boundary layer moisture will
increase as high moisture content north of the Bahamas drifts
southward over the next several days. Cimss mimic layer
precipitable water had values ranging from 2.0 to 2.50 inches.

On Sunday, a cyclone east of the Delmarva will send several 500
mb vort maximum near the region tomorrow and early next week. The
low-level moisture increase depicted by the GFS coupled with the
sea breezes and instability due to the inverted trough near the
Bahamas will make atmospheric conditions favorable for shower and
thunderstorm development. The unsettled weather is progged to
continue through early next week as the inverted trough will drift
to the north-northwest. Pops Wednesday through the weekend will
range from 30-40%.


There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A weak pressure
pattern across South Florida and the Florida Keys will result in
light to gentle breezes today through early next week. Breezes
will freshen from the east to southeast on Wednesday night. Rain
chances will be below normal today and increase Sunday through
early next week.


VFR conditions and light winds will prevail at both the EYW and MTH
terminals the rest of the afternoon and tonight. However, rain and
thunder chances will increase starting this evening, along with
short periods of MFVR CIGs/VIS. At the moment, VCSH conditions are
only included in the MTH terminal forecast, as uncertainty is too
high to include such conditions for the EYW terminal forecast.
Otherwise, surface wind will mainly be out of the southeast,
becoming variable at times.


In 1992, the daily record rainfall of 5.14" was recorded at Key
West. This is also the wettest day ever recorded in June for Key
West. Precipitation data for Key West dates back to 1871.




Data Acquisition.....AP

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