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000
FXUS62 KKEY 050233
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1033 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Currently - A substantial surface through lower level ridge is
situated over the Atlantic States. This ridge is producing
moderate east northeasterly breezes across the Keys and
surrounding waters this evening. The combination of the ridge and
a mid through upper level trough off the southeast Atlantic coast
is contributing to drier lower through mid level air across our
broader region. This evenings sounding indicated limited CAPE,
poor lower level instability, and considerable dry air above 850
mb. As a result, very little in the way of convective activity has
been present near the Keys through the evening, with all activity
relegated to maritime boundaries far to the south and old sea
breeze outflows on our deep gulf waters.

Short Term Update - Little change in the mesoscale and synoptic
scale setup is expected in the Keys. The Keys will remain under
the influence of the descending branch of the trough aloft and
surface ridging will remain anchored to our north. As a result,
rain chances will remain slim and thunder chances just about nil.
The healthy flow will keep overnight lows from falling much
further and should bottom out near 80. Dew point temperatures
will remain in the lower 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

A ridge across the Atlantic and Gulf coast states will maintain
moderate northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys and
surrounding waters. No changes planned for the evening marine
update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

VFR conditions expected to prevail at the island terminals
overnight. Surface winds will be gentle out of the east
northeast.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076>078.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....JPR

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