Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
845 FXUS62 KKEY 121522 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1122 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1122 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 It feels like summer outside across the Florida Keys this morning. Partly cloudy skies reign as a field of low cumulus clouds can be seen blanketing our CWA on GOES-19 visible imagery. While a stray shower or two has been found amid portions of this cloud cover, KBYX radar notes most showers are currently found off the Middle and Upper Keys in Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida moving into Florida Bay. While a few thunderstorms were noted earlier this morning in our northern Deep Gulf waters, lightning strikes have been absent from now ongoing convection. moderate East to southeast breezes are observed along the Reef tract and are notably higher than the gentle to moderate breezes from earlier this morning. These breezes and extra cloud cover are not enough to keep temperatures from rising into the mid 80s with humid dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. While rain chances for the rest of the day are elevated, both the atmosphere and CAM guidance are not all that excited about organized deep convection. This morning`s KKEY 12z sounding notes a fairly moist atmosphere with decent MLCAPE (~1500 J/kg) despite a steep capping inversion observed near the surface. It stands to reason that as the surface warms, more free convection will be able to develop and possibly cross the island chain. However, ongoing convection is struggling to reach high enough to become thunderstorms. This could be due to a somewhat dismal low to mid level shear profile. There is also very little in the way of lift beyond the speed convergence induced by gradually increasing surface winds. Recent CAM runs project widely scattered showers around the island chain over the next few hours but have been getting more sparse with each new solution. CIMSS MIMIC PW may show our culprit to this trend as dry air looks to already be intruding in from the east. While this will likely shut down rain, it can also act as a boundary along with Cuban convection to fire off showers for one last round, so keep an eye to the skies until that passes over. && .MARINE... Issued at 1122 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure centered just east of Bermuda will continue to remain place over the next few days. This feature will promote gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes today. Breezes will freshen tonight through Saturday night becoming moderate to occasionally fresh. The high will get nudged to the southeast further out into the central Atlantic over the weekend into early next week leading to modestly slackening breezes. Moisture remains elevated across the region for today which will support elevated rain and thunder chances, with drier conditions expected for Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 VFR conditions are generally expected today outside of passing showers. Mention of VCSH has been left out for now as the timing of potential showers or thunderstorms is somewhat uncertain. Short term amendments will cover any unexpected developments until more mention is required. Near surface winds will be out of the southeast at near 10 knots, with gusts up to near 20 knots starting later this afternoon. && .OF NOTE... On this date in 2002, at Pennekamp State Park, a daily rainfall of 5.29" was recorded. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 80 88 82 / 60 50 30 30 Marathon 87 80 89 81 / 60 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest