Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
383 FXUS62 KKEY 200906 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 406 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will predominate through the weekend and into next week. -Surface ridging to our north will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes. -Temperatures will range near to slightly above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 Deep layered ridging remains firmly in control of our weather this morning. A strong contributing feature is a sharpening upper ridge shifting eastward across the eastern United States and Gulf. Below this, broad surface through mid level ridging and associated warm and dry air is centered over the Gulf. As a result, surface winds have been light to gentle out of the northeast to east and maintaining somewhat humid, but near normal temperatures. Temperatures are currently in the lower 70s with dew points close by at near 70. This past evenings sounding indicated effectively zero CAPE with sufficient capping based around 850 mb. This along with a backing profile has prevented any shower formation and mostly clear skies. The surface ridge to our north will consolidate along the Atlantic Coast over the next couple of days as a mid Atlantic low lifts out. This will help to briefly nudge up northeast to easterly breezes. No trend of any sort is expected. Temperatures will continue to range near to slightly above normal with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. Rain chances will remain nil. Heading into the weekend, the surface high will lurch out into the Atlantic as a new low swings through the northeast. The high will drag a ridge across Florida and slacken breezes along the Keys. While the upper level ridge will flatten, lower to mid level ridging, and associated dry air, will persist and span from the Gulf to the Bahamas. This will ensure rain chances remain minimal. The progressive pattern will continue and the next continental high will drive into the eastern United States early next week as the prior low pushes out to sea. This high will subsume the weakening ridge orphaned across Florida. As it does so, it will expand quite a bit while building off the Atlantic Coast. The tightening pressure gradient will result in freshening easterlies. No frontal passage is in the cards and temperatures will remain near normal with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. For now will keep PoPs out of the extended, which is in line with the NBM. However, improved kinematics in a deepening and moistening boundary layer, along with potential bouts of enhanced low level lift, may lead to slight chance being introduced in future forecasts. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 A surface high will consolidate along the Atlantic coast over the next couple of days. This, along with diurnal influences should result in slightly freshening northeast to easterly breezes this evening. Winds will slacken some through the remainder of the week as this high tilts eastward and lengthens out into the Atlantic. A new continental high will build as it drive eastward through the eastern United States early next week. This is expected to freshen easterly breezes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for the 06Z TAF period at MTH and EYW. East to northeasterly winds will remain in the 5 to 10 knot range throughout. Shower chances are near nil. Early morning MVFR CIGs are possible from low level stratus clouds, the chance is too low to include in the TAFs. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest