Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
531 FXUS62 KKEY 141831 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 231 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower Keys. Minor saltwater flooding low elevation areas is likely, and boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. - Heat will be the primary weather concern through the rest of the week as indices will approach the mid to upper 100s during the afternoons. - A Saharan Air Layer will linger across the Keys this week, keeping rain and thunder chances slight at best. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 229 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period with FEW clouds near FL025. Rain chances are very low, less than 10 percent, due to a layer of Saharan dust across the area, but the dust layer is thin enough to where no categorical changes due to VIS are expected. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 0439 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 A complex pattern will remain across the Keys for much of the week. In the upper levels, a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell will continue to drift westward through the Keys over the coming days. In the low to mid levels, ridging is expected to dominate along with plenty of Sahara dust that is expected to linger over the region for much of the week. Overall, rain and thunder chances are expected to remain quite limited through the week with at least today and tonight keeping near nil rain chances before slight chances creep back into the forecast for middle to latter part of the week. Outside of any showers and thunderstorms, expect temperatures to remain quite warm with daytime highs near 90 degrees with not much overnight relief as lows only dip into the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will remain tropical in the mid to upper 70s leading to heat index values of 105 to 108 degrees. In addition, expect mostly gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes to continue through the week with peaks in the evening and overnight with lulls during the morning and afternoons. There will be one caveat potentially for tonight. Convection across the South Florida mainland may send an outflow boundary southward tonight which may result in a wind surge out of the northeast to east. This is low confidence at this time but the threat is there as a similar pattern to last evening remains across the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 1150 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters, but a Coast Flood Statement in effect for the Lower Keys means mariners should be aware of less clearance under fixed bridges during times of higher tides. High pressure draped across the area will continue to support gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes over the next few days. Any outflow boundaries from showers and thunderstorms over the mainland may cause breezes to briefly become northeasterly. With that being said, chances for showers and thunderstorms over our local waters remain very low, a slight chance at best, due to widespread Saharan dust in the lower levels of the atmosphere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 90 84 90 / 0 10 10 20 Marathon 84 90 84 90 / 0 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest