859
FXUS63 KLBF 051910
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
110 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry weather returns Saturday with the threat for light accumulating
  snow and even a wintry mix possible for much of western and
  north central Nebraska.

- A passing high pressure system will lead to a large
  temperature spread on Sunday with middle 40s west to low 20s
  east.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday with
  highs pushing into the 50s and low 60s with more active
  weather and cooler temperatures arriving for the latter half
  of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 109 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Satellite analysis depicts northwesterly flow in place across much
of the central and western CONUS. This is on the backside low-
amplitude troughing across the Great Lakes. Some clearing with rapid
warmup at the surface was allowing for steepening lapse rates,
particularly across north central Nebraska. Temperatures as of Noon
CST ranged from upper 30s in the far northwest near the Pine Ridge
to widespread 40s. A few locations are also threatening the lower
50s given moderate downsloping winds with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range. Strong upper-level jet rounds the top of broad ridging to the
west and will track east into the Central Plains with the next
weather producer impacting the area on Saturday.

For this afternoon/tonight...surface height rises are noted across
western Nebraska behind departing trough axis associated with weak
low pressure over Minnesota. This feature will continue to shift
east and expand westerly wind gusts up to 35 mph across much of the
area. Temperatures have quickly shot up, far exceeding much of the
morning guidance and strong kinematic mixing is likely the culprit.
This mixing will promote steepening lapse rates into a plume of low-
level moisture off the surface. With an introduction of ice nuclei
at the top of a fairly deep saturated layer with non-zero SBCAPE,
believe a few -RA showers are possible. While temperatures are well
above the freezing mark, the shallow WBZ height should allow for
some -SN/GS to mix in at times too. Given temperatures in the upper
30s/lower 40s, no accumulations are expected and impacts will
largely be limited to reduced visibility. With loss of daytime
heating, lapse rates will wane and cloud cover erode and this will
effectively end any threat for shower activity for the day. With the
approach of the next disturbance and a resumption of pressure falls
across the Northern Plains, a return to southerly flow is expected
tonight. This southerly flow should support increasing moisture and
cloud cover. The result is a slight boost to forecast low
temperatures with values now in low to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Saturday...A fairly active day is expected with wintry impacts
likely for much of western and central Nebraska. Rounding the
developing ridge to the west, a strong h25 jet will stretch across
the Great Basin and nose into the Central High Plains early
Saturday. While this feature will gradually weaken, a modest
shortwave will become colocated with the left exit region of the
upper jet and lead to increasing ascent. A tap of Pacific moisture
will accompany the enhanced mid-level flow which will allow for
quickly increasing cloud cover and saturating profiles in the
predawn hours. A weak low-pressure will form over eastern Wyoming
and quickly translate east across the local area through the
morning. Ahead of this, strong southerly flow will promote WAA and
increasing precipitation from west to east through the early
morning. Forecast soundings show top down saturation which is
favorable for snow, however, a lingering warm nose off the surface
may promote partial if not full melting of the hydrometeors into a
shallow sub-freezing layer at the surface. This suggests a wintry
mix including the potential for icing via freezing rain and even
sleet. Concern for this is highest across southwest and central
Nebraska where WAA is expected to be the strongest. Eventually, the
warm nose will gradually mix out as temperatures climb through the
normal diurnal trend allowing a rain/wet snow mix. Any window for a
wintry mix should be brief, perhaps an 1 to 3 hours at max for any
one location focused around the predawn hours ending around or
shortly after sunrise. This will still likely lead to slick
conditions across the area so folks are advised to take caution with
any Saturday morning travels. Through the day, as the surface low
tracks east, the associated surface trough will settle in central
and eastern Nebraska with broad westerly flow. Further northeast and
closer to the main surface low, wrap around moisture should settle
south and lead to continued low-end precipitation chances for our
northern zones. This should again be largely snow and only light
accumulations are likely. Total for the day, up to a glaze of ice
accumulations are expected with snow accumulations limited to north
central Nebraska where 0.50-1.50" of snow is possible mainly for
Holt and Boyd Counties. Westerly flow behind the departing low
should bring a swift end to precipitation for most by early evening.
Highs should again rival values seen Friday, with upper 30s to near
50F northeast to southwest.

Sunday...some uncertainty remains regarding how the weekend ends
across western Nebraska. Surface high pressure will quickly shift
south across the Dakotas with northerly flow preceding it. Mid-level
moisture remains high, so clouds never fully clear out and the
resulting increasing pressure gradient  from developing lee
troughing will again shift winds to the south/southeast and lead to
weak lift. A small plume of light snow appears likely to drift east-
southeast off the Higher Terrain and move into western Nebraska.
Forecast soundings, particularly the NAM, shows deep saturation but
fairly weak lift. That should be enough to produce a skiff of snow
across much of the Sandhills into northern Nebraska with how far
south this snow extends somewhat unclear. Temperatures will be much
cooler but still range from middle 40s in the west to middle 20s in
the east.

Monday and beyond...heights build in as a deepening trough sets up
across southeast Canada. Strong ridging remains off the southern
California coast and the central and southern Plains on the eastern
periphery of the high pressure aloft. This, along with general
westerly flow, will support very warm temperatures for the early
part of next week as well as dry conditions. Daytime highs continue
to trend up for Monday and Tuesday with 40s to middle 50s climbing
to 50s and low 60s each day respectively. The latter of these values
for Tuesday will be nearing the 90th percentile in observed
climatology at both LBF and VTN. Around the middle of the week, a
more pronounced shortwave will dive southeast out of central Canada.
This will introduce a surge of cooler air and end our well above-
normal stretch of temperatures. This will also bring with it
increased precipitation potential though at this time, guidance
falls short of painting anything significant in the local area. With
generally mild temperatures persisting, precipitation will favor
rain during the day and snow at night. Only late in the week do we
see a stronger front and introduction of colder weather for much of
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the remainder of Friday for
area terminals.

Attention quickly turns to an approaching disturbance bringing
the threat of wintry precipitation to the area tomorrow.
Previous thoughts of more localized coverage are now trending
towards more widespread, though brief, impacts. Have included a
mention at LBF now for a few hours post-sunrise Saturday.
Greater impacts appear likely at VTN with IFR now in the
forecast. Believe a transition from snow to rain may contain
some ice potential, but will withhold this from the forecast for
now until confidence increases. Expect a quick improvement by
late in the period with an end to precipitation but lingering
low clouds.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ