439
FXUS63 KLBF 202327
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat remains across the region through this evening, with the
  Heat Advisory remaining in effect. Tomorrow, more seasonal
  temperatures are expected.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
  into Thursday across the region.

- Temperatures will remain slightly below normal Wednesday and
  Thursday before a return to hot and predominantly dry
  conditions this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The cold front across the Sandhills will continue to slowly track
south this evening. However, temperature differences behind the
front are fairly negligible, keeping hot temperatures across the
region through this evening. As such, the Heat Advisory remains in
effect through 9 PM Central. By late evening, expecting that the
front will finally push through the region. As this occurs, some
gusty winds are possible, with peak gusts around 25 to 30 mph,
especially across the western Sandhills into southwest Nebraska. The
front may also continue to force some weak showers and
thunderstorms, though given the environment, expecting these to
mostly remain isolated to scattered in nature, offering very little
in terms of expected precipitation. Even with the frontal passage,
temperatures are expected to remain relatively mild overnight, with
lows ranging from the mid 60s across northwest Nebraska into the
lower 70s across southwest and central Nebraska. These lows remain
around the 90th percentile compared to local climatology, so still
considered warm compared to normal. For reference, typical lows for
late July are right around 61 to 62 degrees, so this will still be 5
to 10 degrees warmer than average.

Tuesday, a low pressure system develops east of the Rocky Mountains,
providing a source of lift later in the day. Throughout the morning,
expecting lingering cloud cover, which should help limit high
temperatures throughout the day. In fact, highs are expected to
return to more seasonal values, with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. For late July, typical highs are 90 to 92 degrees across
western Nebraska. Conditions are expected to remain dry throughout
the day and into the evening. However, by the late evening to
overnight hours, the low pressure system to the west will slowly
track east, bringing respectable chances for showers and
thunderstorms across most of the region. Given that these storms are
mostly expected late night, the chance for any severe weather
appears low. At this time, this mostly appears to be a rain event,
which could bring some relief from the recent hot and dry
conditions. Along with the rainfall, expect overnight lows to drop
to near seasonal, with lows returning to the lower 60s, fully
bringing some relief from the recent heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Wednesday, a stronger longwave trough will become established across
the Hudson Bay region, resulting in northwest flow aloft across the
central Plains. Embedded within this flow, a weak mid-level
disturbance is forecast to move from Wyoming into northwest and
north-central Nebraska Wednesday morning. This disturbance will
result in increasing mid-level warm air advection, frontogenesis,
and differential cyclonic vorticity advection (DCVA), providing
sufficient lift for more widespread shower and thunderstorm
development through the day Wednesday. Moisture across the region
will be quite impressive, with recent model guidance depicting
precipitable water (PWAT) values exceeding 1.5 inches. These values
are near the 95th percentile to near the climatological maximum for
this time of year, highlighting just how anomalous the moisture
profile will be. Forecast soundings across the area depict deep
moisture profiles supportive of efficient rainfall processes and
locally heavy rainfall. The NBM currently depicts around a 50
percent probability of rainfall exceeding one-half inch along a
Valentine to Broken Bow corridor. There remains considerable
uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rainfall axis will
ultimately set up, so this will continue to be monitored over the
next several forecast cycles. High temperatures Wednesday will range
from the middle 70s across north-central Nebraska, where cloud cover
is expected to persist through much of the day, to the middle and
upper 80s across western and southwest Nebraska.

Thursday, the longwave trough will remain across the northeastern
United States, maintaining northwest flow aloft over the region as
another weak embedded shortwave moves east across the central
Plains. This will provide another opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms, though model guidance remains in disagreement
regarding where the heaviest precipitation will occur. Temperatures
will remain below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s
as below-normal 850-mb temperature anomalies and persistent cloud
cover continue across much of the area.

Friday through the weekend, the upper-level ridge centered across
the southern Plains is expected to strengthen and gradually expand
northward into the central Plains. By Saturday, forecast 500-mb
heights are expected to approach 597 dam. In addition, 850-mb
temperature anomalies are forecast to increase to 4 to 8C above
normal, with the greatest anomalies focused across the Dakotas and
northern Plains. This pattern will favor a return to hot and
predominantly dry conditions as the primary storm track shifts north
of the region. High temperatures are expected to climb into the
middle to upper 90s across much of western and north-central
Nebraska by Saturday and Sunday, with some locations across
northern, western, and southwestern Nebraska potentially reaching
the lower 100s. Heat headlines may eventually be needed, though
confidence in the magnitude and duration of the hottest temperatures
remains too low to introduce any headlines at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central
Nebraska through Tuesday. The only exception would be isolated
thunderstorms that will be possible along a slow moving southward
cold front. This will be for areas mainly south of a line from
Neligh to Thedford to Sidney. Winds will be light through the
period, generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Taylor