Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
925 FXUS64 KLCH 202336 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 536 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing cloud cover and overnight winds will both somewhat limit fog potential during next few days. - Precipitation chances return late tonight into Friday ahead of a weak front expected to pass through Saturday. - Well above average temperatures and elevated dewpoints will continue through the weekend into at least the first half of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Sfc analysis indicates the expected frontal system this weekend is beginning to take shape in west Texas. Upper level forcing will swiftly lift and eject across the central Plains, pulled along by anticyclonic flow around the southeast ridge. Because of this, the front will near, but won`t be able to pass through until perhaps Saturday when upper troffing can shift the high off its pedestal into Sunday. Rain chances may return as early as overnight tonight in response to low level nocturnal jet interactions. However, the best rain chances will be seen by Lower Acadiana in early Friday AM hours, and perhaps inland Southeast Texas counties when the prefrontal line does attempt to move in. Not anticipating a great flood or severe risk on either Friday or Saturday. Most areas will be lucky to receive measurable rainfall in the short term. Warm, well-above-normal temperatures set to continue into Saturday. 11 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Any relief in temperatures possibly brought on by the weak cool fropa will be seen Sunday thru Tuesday with highs knocked down into the upper 70s. Flow quickly returns to the south ahead of the next expected frontal upper trof and frontal system. Guidance currently brings a much more robust frontal system thru the region Tuesday and again Wednesday with much cooler temps for Thanksgiving. However, due to the poor performance of weather models these past weeks, forecaster confidence is very low that this outcome will come to pass. That being said, there are indications that a cold air plunge is expected any time now. Could it arrive for a chilly Thanksgiving? It`s not impossible, and actually, it is preferred! Continue to monitor the forecast for updates to the coming Thanksgiving. 11 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Light to moderate SE Winds and partly cloudy VFR CIGs will prevail as we head into the overnight hours. From midnight through sunrise, another round of fog is expected to form however, dense fog is unlikely due to winds expected to remain around 5 KTS. In addition, there is some indication that some light shower activity will move across south LA after midnight from the south. This activity shouldn`t cause any issues and should be gone by sunrise. Tomorrow, winds turn SW and remain light to moderate, while skies become mostly cloudy but maintain VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 64 83 62 80 / 50 50 20 20 LCH 67 82 67 82 / 30 30 20 20 LFT 68 83 66 82 / 30 40 10 20 BPT 67 83 66 83 / 20 30 20 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...17