467
FXUS64 KLCH 182227
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
527 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood Watch which includes most of southwest Louisiana
  is in effect through Saturday.

- Heavy rainfall from a tropical disturbance will remain possible
  through Saturday.

- Heat returns to the region in the middle of next week with highs
  in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Moisture associated with a tropical disturbance continues to work
across the region this afternoon. Rain has been widespread through
the morning, but mostly light with a few transient heavier pockets.

Moisture levels will remain high through the afternoon and
additional convection will be possible. With PWATs remaining at or
above the 90th percentile, efficient rainfall producing storms will
be possible, therefore there will be no changes to the FFA that is
currently in effect into Saturday. That being said, guidance has
been a touch high on the rain amounts and on PWATs, but as with any
tropical system, rain amounts can stack up quickly.

Tonight into Saturday, nocturnal convection may develop and move
inland with additional diurnal thunderstorms possible. PWATs are
forecast to decrease through the day as the moisture associated with
the disturbance lifts into northern LA, AR, and northern MS. With
moisture levels locally remaining fairly high through the afternoon,
efficient rainfall producers will be remain possible, but
flash flooding will become less likely.

A ridge aloft will build into the area by late in the weekend. This
will begin to suppress convection and this will also increase
temperatures, a trend that will last into the extended.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

An upper ridge will linger over the region during the extended.
This will produce slightly hotter than climate average
temperatures with lower rain chances. Inland areas may approach
heat advisory criteria during the middle of the week.

Beyond mid week, moisture once again increases with rain chances
climbing. Moisture may wrap around the base of the ridge and
stream into the northern gulf coast much like over the past couple
of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Isolated showers and storms will remain possible for the next few
hours, however convection will decrease after sunset. Additional
convection may redevelop in the early morning hours along the
coast and move inland. This may produce patchy lower vis and
ceilings. Winds will be light and generally south to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Outside of thunderstorms winds will remain light and onshore.
High pressure is expected to remain over the northeast gulf and
southeast states.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Patchy rain will remain over the area through sunset, and
additional scattered storms are anticipated Saturday. An upper
ridge will build over the area by Sunday which will suppress rain
chances, but increase temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  91  73  94 /  20  50   0  10
LCH  76  90  77  91 /  20  50  10  20
LFT  76  89  76  91 /  20  60  10  30
BPT  75  91  76  92 /  20  50   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ030>033-044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05