747
FXUS64 KLCH 170920
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
420 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Excessive Rain Outlook is outlined for eastern
  portions of the forecast area today while minor river flooding
  is expected to persist over the next few days across portions of
  Sabine and Neches

- Moderate rainfall chances today are forecast to decrease
  slightly into the midweek ahead, but daily scattered
  thundershowers remain possible through Friday

- Temperatures will rise into the low toward the mid 90s by the
  end of the work week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Precipitation will remain in the forecast throughout the short term
outlook, however, chances for excessive rainfall appear to decrease
slightly. More specifically, the axis of favorable moisture
convergence is expected to shift further east toward the MS Delta.

An upper level trough discussed in previous overnight packages has
now moved east of the MS Delta with the approaching secondary
shortwave over the Southern Plains also advancing east today. This
incoming shortwave carries a positive tilt that phases closer to
stronger northern stream pattern over the Missouri Valley. Should be
noted that while SETX carries less chances for rainfall, there still
exist daily oppertunities for isolated or clustered thundershowers-
some of which are still capable of laying down efficient rainfall
rates while PWATs still trend above the 75th percentile per observed
soundings. Mid to upper level tropospheric moisture is forecast to
decrease into the mid week which will further limit risks of
excessive rainfall in this region. That decrease in available
moisture will also be noted over south central LA through the mid
week. Daily high temperatures will remain toward 90F which is
seasonably normal for this time of year. That said, minimum RH
values during the daylight hours will generally stay above 60%
making apparent temperatures few several degrees warmer but below
any heat related advisory criteria for now.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

High pressure across the western Atlantic is forecast to build over
Bermuda with ridging also strengthing westward across the NW Gulf
waters. Addtionally an upper level ridge will develop across Midwest
Sunday before expanding further through the beginning of the
upcoming work week. There are signals of more notable dry layers and
inversions with above 700mb, however, the proximity to the marine
environment under steady SE`ly fetch will still allow conditional
afternoon thundershowers. From a climotological standpoint, it would
be encouraged to take advantage periods of dry weather for outdoor
chores / activities as the latest 6-10 day CPC outlook still
suggests roughly a 30-40% chance above normal precipitation locally
across SETX and SWLA.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

At the moment stable conditions across the area with VFR at all
terminals. This is expected to stay that way into the overnight
with the only exception at KAEX, where some patchy fog may bring
about MVFR conditions between 17/10z and 17/14z.

Again on Tuesday, a weakness aloft and a very moist and unstable
air mass will mean scattered showers and storms by late morning
into the afternoon. Higher chances are expected for the Louisiana
area, therefore will not have a PROB30 group at KBPT.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Conditions remain calm across the coastal waters with light to
moderate onshore flow last for the next several days. Combined
seas will remain between 1 and 3 feet. 20-60nm waters off High
Island, Tx to Cameron, LA may range toward 2 and 4 feet with
slight strengthening of southerly flow across the NW Gulf on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  73  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
LCH  89  77  89  77 /  40  10  40  10
LFT  89  75  89  75 /  70  20  60  10
BPT  89  77  89  77 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07