Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
762 FXUS64 KLCH 060007 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 707 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will increase through Monday as a weak surface low and boundary move inland. - A weak cold front will move into the area later in the week bringing drier conditions again by Thursday. This will reduce rain chances while daytime highs will remain on the warm side and above normal && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A broad upper level weakness/shear axis is located across the Gulf coast. Under this is a surface boundary that extends just off the northern Gulf coast with a weak surface low on the west side of the boundary off the south central Louisiana coast. The surface low is not expected to become tropical with upper level shear and it remaining attached to the frontal system. These features will slowly move to the northwest and inland along the Texas and southern Louisiana coast on Monday. These features will bring an increase in moisture and lift that is expected to help bring an increase in scattered shower activity, especially during the daytime hours through Monday. The deeper Gulf moisture is expected to stay east of the forecast area, so widespread high rainfall amounts are not expected. By Tuesday, the broad weakness and low pressure system is expected to wash out, that will help to lower rain chances somewhat. Temperatures are expected to remain on the warm side and above climo norms. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 An upper level ridge will build over the forecast area from the west, while an upper level trough will form along the eastern US. The result will be a northwest flow that will help push a weak cold front across the forecast area on Thursday. There may be a small chance for showers on Wednesday with modest moisture ahead of the frontal system. However, rain chances should decrease by Thursday through the remainder of the period as a dry continental air mass filters in behind the front. The drier air mass will bring lower humidity and slightly cooler night time temperatures. However, daytime temperatures will remain on the very warm side and above climo norms. Rua && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Scattered showers and CIGs ranging from 2000 ft to 3500 feet are spread over the region. This is in response to the boundary in north Gulf waters gaining some organization with trof overhead before it moves inland late tonight into Monday. Expect CIGs to continue on a downward trend and there will likely be a decent smattering of ground fog (5 to 6SM) as moisture continues surging in overnight. A round of showers may also move in overnight impacting much of Louisiana. Winds should prevail from the east northeast to east before becoming more southerly with the northward march of the boundary Monday daytime. There will likely be an increased coverage of convection at east terminals since the trof should come onshore along the TX/LA line. Not anticipating organized severe weather with any stronger cells. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Moderate easterly winds and medium seas will decrease through the night as the gradient between high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure over the northwest Gulf lessens. A brief period of light southerly winds will occur on Monday as the low pressure system moves into the Texas coast. Moderate offshore winds are expected to return later in the week as a weak cold front moves into the Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A weak surface low and boundary will move inland by Monday. This system will help increase moisture and bring a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Relative humidity values on Monday will be elevated with min afternoon values above 60 percent. Higher low level moisture will hang around into Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 87 69 90 / 40 50 20 20 LCH 71 88 72 89 / 30 40 20 30 LFT 72 86 72 89 / 50 50 10 30 BPT 71 88 72 90 / 20 20 20 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...11