046
FXUS64 KLCH 221140
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
640 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Area wide Heat Advisory Saturday with max heat index values of
  111 F.

- Heat Stress Levels have increased to Extreme (level 4 of 4) for
  southeast Texas and Louisiana Saturday; this level of heat
  stress will persist through at least Monday.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and
  Sunday afternoon.

- Lightning and volatile winds could exacerbate fire conditions
  with storm passage. Check with your local officials for burn
  bans across SETX and CEN/SWLA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

This past afternoon and evening were certainly active as severe
thunderstorms moved across central Louisiana down into Acadiana.
The 00Z sounding from LCH had a surface CAPE value of 6600 J/kg
with a DCAPE value of 1262 J/kg. Widespread damage was reported
across Acadiana with a wind gust of 76 mph recorded at KARA.

Moving into the forecast, looking aloft at 500 mb, the upper-
level ridge continues to erode with the center building farther to
the west. With us on the eastern edge of the ridge, we will start
to see troughs rotating around the ridge and increasing our
chances for MCS formation as this unstable air will run into our
very warm and moist Gulf air mass. This instability, when combined
with daytime heating, could cause a few strong to severe storms,
but widespread severe weather is not expected. The main limiting
factors for more severe weather are a lack of bulk shear and a
drier low to mid levels of the atmosphere. With a lack of moisture
aloft, the extent of thunderstorm development will be limited.
But once again this environment can support "overachievers" with
damaging winds possible as updrafts collapse. Moving into next
week, we are looking at a diurnally driven pattern with storms
forming along outflows and the sea breeze. The best chance for
widespread rain will be on Thursday as both the GFS and ECMWF are
picking up on a trough rotating around the ridge and moving in
from the north.

For the next seven days, heat will be a constant concern with heat
index values expected to be above 108 F area wide this weekend.
With persistent low-level flow from the south, our dew points will
remain in the upper 70s keeping us muggy. Looking into the
extended forecast, there is no real break from the heat and
humidity and heat advisories are likely through the rest of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions ongoing and expected to prevail through most of the
forecast period. There is a chance for isolated showers and storms
later this afternoon into the early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Light onshore winds will continue for the next several days, and
waves will remain between 1 and 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Widespread rain across central Louisiana and Acadiana was
certainly welcomed. Hopefully, the next time it rains, it will
come with less wind. Little to no rain fell on the west side of
the CWA, and KBDI values are expected to stay steady or slowly
climb. Afternoon minRH values will be in the 30s this weekend. The
main limiting factor for aggressive fire behavior is a lack of
wind, with speeds expected to stay below 10 mph. Gusty winds
caused by outflows from nearby storms could cause fires to behave
aggressively, so caution should be exercised and outdoor burning
is not recommended. Multiple parishes and counties have burn bans
in effect. Please consult your local fire departments for more
information.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
     252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...87