907
FXUS64 KLCH 020552
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1252 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clear and dry conditions return today with mild afternoons and
  cool nights through Tuesday.

- Wednesday through the end of the week, a warming trend will take
  place as onshore flow becomes established once again.

- Conditions through the end of the upcoming work week are
  expected to remain dry as high pressure takes hold.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Wx map has large area of high pressure building behind the cold
front that moved offshore last night. Our upper level pattern
puts us on the western fringe of amplified shortwave trough which
is expected to become cutoff over the central Gulf and fill later
this week. This feature will help set the stage for an Omega
block to develop between Baja and Florida leading to above normal
temperatures in the long range.

In the meanwhile, northerly advection from the trough will filter
dry continental air the NW Gulf Coast with some moderate offshore
breezes. For this reason, a Small Craft Advisory is in place where
conditions are likely to meet criteria for several hours this
morning. Naturally under a north regime, cool to mild highs are
expected in the upper 60`s to low 70`s. With conditions calming
tonight, lows Monday morning are expected to dip into the mid
30`s for portions of CenLA while low to upper 40`s are game moving
southward to the coast. Despite a chilly start, mild conditions
will be expected in the afternoon with clear skies. Low
temperatures Monday night will be a few degrees warmer as winds
begin to acquire east components, but still worthy of dressing
warm for any morning errands or activities. Winds will continue to
veer southerly bringing onshore flow back across the forecast
area. Highs here on out through the end of the work week will be
on warming the trend.

 Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

As mentioned above, the upper level pattern cuts off an upper
level trough over the east Gulf. Meanwhile, a secondary trough
develops over the Baja peninsula while modest ridging builds north
into Texas between the two features. With the active Jet stream
located over the northern 48, we can expect this pattern to become
stagnate Wednesday. Suffice to say there is no precipitation in
the forecast due to this reason. Highs Wednesday will be
noticeably warmer, trending into the upper 70`s and low 80`s. Even
low temperatures will start hedging a few degrees above normal,
generally laying in the mid 50`s to low 60`s. By Thursday, the
block begins to erode as the western wave gains acceleration. The
surface ridge begins to move toward the lower TN Valley keeping
onshore flow in place. Broad ridging remains overhead through the
end of the work week keeping conditions dry and unseasonably warm
where 80`s would be common areawide Friday and Saturday.

 Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Conditions for the remainder of the nocturnal hours are expected to
remain VFR as light winds from the north increase gradually after
dawn. With cool air advection from the north, areas of ground fog or
BR are possible and have been observed not far from the vicinity of
AEX. Any vis reductions would be temporary as mixing aloft should
keep conditions mostly clear.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

Offshore flow between 15-25 knots has been reestablished behind the
frontal boundary further offshore from our marine forecast zones. As
a result of this brief, but modest gradient over the northern Gulf,
a short Small Craft Advisory is in effect through the early
afternoon. Small craft are encourage to exercise caution through the
evening given some residual enhanced offshore breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

North winds will prevail through Tuesday afternoon before veering
onshore. Minimum RH ranges between 25-40% through during this
period. Onshore flow will increase minRH roughly 10-15% through the
remainder of the forecast period. Worth noting, forecast is dry
through the end of the work week where no rainfall is expected under
this developing high pressure pattern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  37  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  70  43  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  69  41  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  72  46  72  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM early this morning to noon CDT
     today for GMZ450-452-470-472.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30