504
FXUS64 KLCH 141134
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
634 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood watch remains in effect for lower Southeast TX and
  South Central LA until 7PM tonight where periods of training
  precipitation over well saturated soils are likely to occur

- A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been outlined across
  across the forecast area through tonight.

- High rain chances will persist into this weekend; slightly lower
  chances early to mid next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A disorganized upper level trough rests over the TX / LA Gulf
Coast this morning. Meanwhile high pressure over the western
Atlantic extends broad surface ridging into the NW Gulf. This
somewhat stagnant pattern will facilitate another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms trending from the mid morning
hours through the afternoon. There is Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall through tonight. Today`s convective behavior will be
heavily dependent upon diurnal instability with drier air noted in
last night`s 00Z sounding capturing a notable 900mb inversion.
Granted some of this stability was created via warm cloud
processes increasing low level thermos profile, however, satellite
analysis of lower tropospheric moisture paints several pockets of
drier air. Mid and upper levels continue to remain fairly moist
for early summer. Areas that miss or have yet to see morning
convection will likely match up to climatological normal highs
around 90F while areas with more persistent rainfall stay toward
the mid 80`s.

Prognosis for the pattern over the next couple days is for the
upper level trough to meander south across the NW Gulf waters
while deepening as it acquires a more concentric shape and
increased velocity from split flow favoring more air across a
portions of the subtropical Jet. Surface to 850mb ridging is not
expected to change through the weekend and will keep south-
southeasterly onshore flow in place. Appreciable rain chances are
in the forecast Sunday as the mid-upper level environment upsets
land / sea breeze interactions and aides in small pockets of
vertical ascent. With little less available moisture there is no
excessive rainfall outlook Sunday or Monday upon this forecast
package. Will caution that flash flooding still remains possible
during the onset of this 3rd week of June. Forecast model sounding
illustrate Corfidi vectors to remain very low around 15kts or
less suggesting upstream cell growth as seen over the past few
days remains possible where convection takes place.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The long range outlook keeps the upper level low over the NW Gulf in
place through the early half of the work week. At the same time,
moist low level flow from the Atlantic high building towards Bermuda
will allow onshore flow to prevail. Daily rainfall opportunities
will exist with scattered coverage. Severe elements will be limited
and mainly dependent upon the few cells that tap into deeper
tropospheric support.

Wednesday, the pattern across the Heartland shifts the Jet and an
associated shortwave trough further toward the Southern Plains.
Some guidance supports the remnant upper level trough to be pulled
inland toward the more progressive shortwave transiting across the
Ozarks. The remainder of the forecast periods calls PoPs to
trend lower into the following weekend while temperatures hedge
further toward the lower 90`s more consistently across the
forecast area.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas of patchy fog will quickly lift over within an hour post
sunrise. Locations north of I-10 have experienced IFR / LIFR
ceilings which may persist another couple hours as diurnal mixing
may be a little slower to occur in the mid morning. Ceilings
should trend toward VFR, however, conditional reductions remain
likely near or at a few terminals as areawide scattered VCTS are
forecast through late afternoon.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Periods of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will
be the main concern over the weekend and into next week. Light to
moderate onshore flow will continue through at least the middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  71  90  72 /  80  30  70  20
LCH  90  76  90  76 /  70  20  70  30
LFT  89  74  89  74 /  80  20  80  30
BPT  88  75  89  75 /  70  20  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ033-044-045-055-073-074-
     141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ201-261-262-515-516-615-
     616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30