545
FXUS64 KLCH 101752
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1152 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The first freeze of the year is likely tonight along and north
  of I-10 and Acadiana. A frost advisory is in effect for the
  southern parts of SE Texas.

- Hazardous marine conditions will continue into Monday evening.

- A Red Flag Warning is in place today given elevated winds, low
  RH, and antecedent dry conditions making dry fuels easily
  ignitable.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The gusty north winds are starting to lessen as the cold front is
now well offshore and the pressure gradient weakens. Even with
the weaker winds, we have dangerous conditions for fire weather
with a Red Flag Warning in effect until this evening.
Additionally, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect offshore.

Overnight we still have the cold to worry about. Tonight will be
the coldest, with temperatures expected to fall below freezing
across Acadiana and north of I-10.  Areas where temperatures drop
below freezing could see a light freeze as our dew points will be
in the upper 20s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see steadily warmer temperatures as
warm air advection rapidly increases our moisture and
temperatures. Highs on Tuesday afternoon will be 10 to 15 degrees
warmer than Monday`s, while Wednesday`s highs will be 10 degrees
higher than Tuesday`s. Similarly, dew points will also rise, with
dew points in the 60s by the middle of the week. Even with the
higher moisture content, rain chances remain near zero.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The rest of the week will see a steady warm-up as high pressure to
our east advects warm, moist Gulf air north. Temperatures will
reach the 80s by the end of the week, and our taste of winter will
be long gone.

Our pattern will change again as we go into the weekend as an
upper-level low starts to dig south. Models have been trending
towards a deeper low that digs down into Texas. If the forecast
remains consistent, we could see some active weather this weekend
with widespread showers and thunderstorms. It is still too early
in the forecast to pinpoint impacts, but we cant rule out the
possibility of strong to severe weather Saturday and Sunday.
Continue to monitor the forecast and keep a close eye out for any
changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will continue for the rest of the day with north
winds around 20 knots. After sunset, winds will weaken and become
calm around midnight. No other hazards are expected, with VFR
conditions through the rest of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Winds continue to weaken as the cold front moves into the
southern Gulf. Even with the weaker winds, the latest ASCAT pass
shows a large swath of 20-knot winds from the north. With those
winds still in the area, we will start to pare down the Small
Craft Advisory until the last segments in the eastern waters
expire at 9 PM. With the continued winds, the Low Water Advisory
will go through the next low tide and then expire at 3 PM.


Starting on Tuesday, winds will be light and onshore, and waves
will fall in response, staying below 3 feet through the end of the
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7 PM this evening due
to very low dew points and gusty north winds. For the rest of
today, dew points will be below 20, with gusts up to 25 mph from
the north.

By Tuesday afternoon, we will start to see light southern winds,
around 5 mph, and our dew points will slowly rise. We will still
need a Fire Danger Statement, but no Red Flag Warning. By midweek,
our minimum RH will be around 50% with light winds from the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  29  62  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  36  65  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  33  61  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  39  68  56  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     LAZ027>033-044-045-055-141>143-152>154-243-252>254.

     Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     LAZ073-074-241-242.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     TXZ180-201-259>262-516.

     Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     TXZ515-615-616.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ435-
     436-450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ452-455-
     472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14