982
FXUS64 KLCH 031759
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1259 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small Craft Advisory in place through Saturday evening. East
  winds over 20 knots expected with combined seas building toward 7
  feet in the outer coastal waters.

- Moisture increases further by Sunday as the upper level
  disturbance moves overhead, allowing rain chances to ramp up a
  bit Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Currently there are isolated showers in the Gulf, with quiet
conditions inland. We could see a few showers and storms inland,
however PoPs remain low and mainly isolated near the coast. Winds
are out of the ENE to east, and a bit breezier thanks to the
tighter pressure gradient formed by the high over the NE Atlantic
Coast. The elevated flow will persist for the next few days until
the surface high moves further into the Atlantic. As a result of
that, we could be looking at minor coastal flooding over the short
term. Currently, guidance has it below our thresholds, however
this will be monitored for fluctuations, especially during high
tide on Sunday. Additionally, a weak surface low will move into
the western Gulf, which will further assist in seeing those higher
winds, and possibly isolated to scattered showers and storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

The work week will remind us a bit of summertime as Gulf moisture
moves into the region. This will allow for our run of the mill
diurnal pop up showers and storms along with humid conditions.
Daytime temperatures will be about 4 to 8 degrees above average in
the upper 80s to low 90s, however there will be little to no
recovery at night as temperatures are only forecast to drop into
the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is nearly 10 degrees above
climatological normals. Despite the increase in moisture, we will
have a ridge build in during the midweek period which will limit,
but not shut out, PoPs for the duration of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Mostly VFR conditions ongoing and expected to prevail. Showers and
storms are widely isolated, with little to no impacts expected to
the terminals. Easterly to ENE winds are a bit elevated due to a
surface high, however they will calm some this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Strong east winds will continue, and a small craft advisory is in
place for all of our coastal waters and bays through Saturday
night. During the weekend, winds will remain above 20 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots, and waves will build up to 7 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms will also be a concern this weekend and into
next week as a low develops near the shore. Near thunderstorms,
winds and waves will be higher.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Only isolated to scattered showers possible for this forecast
period. 20ft winds are a bit breezy, but around 7 to 13 kts.
MinRH today will tank in the mid 30s to 50s, with more moisture
coming back into the area tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  62  89  64  87 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  67  88  68  87 /   0  20  10  30
LFT  68  87  70  85 /   0  20  10  50
BPT  68  88  69  87 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87