Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
898 FXUS64 KLCH 280529 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low level southerly flow will become reestablished early this week causing moisture to increase. This will lead to more humid conditions along with temperatures that are already above seasonal norms. - Next chance for rain can be expected beginning mid this week as moisture further increases over the region in advance of an upper level low and eventual frontal boundary. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Aloft, a high pressure system is positioned over the TX/MX border. This will continue to shift away from the region, along with the drier air that was previously in place. At the surface, an area of high pressure is meandering about the region, while a broader ridge near the Great Lakes extends into the southern MS River Valley. The broader ridge will shift eastward, allowing southerly flow to become reestablished. As the drier layer gradually moistens, we could see isolated showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Going into midweek, a cutoff upper low currently north of the CA Bay Area will descend into the Desert Southwest before moving into the TX/OK Panhandles, bringing deep tropical moisture from different disturbances along with it. While model guidance has shown better agreement regarding the progression of the upper disturbance into the area over the next few days, timing remains somewhat uncertain Wednesday into Thursday and beyond. This will play a significant role in the potential for flooding across our forecast area. WPC has already introduced a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across our SETX counties and bordering SWLA parishes on Thursday; however, the evolution of this system could lead to an increased threat going into the end of the week and weekend. Additionally, a frontal boundary is forecast to progress through the area. The timing of this feature has also been inconsistent from model run to model run, but it will bear watching as it interacts with the moisture rich environment across the area during that timeframe. Temperatures will continue to be well above average today into midweek. With dewpoints rising, heat indices could reach the triple digits in some locations. By midweek, high temperatures could drop closer to climatological normals as a result of increased cloud cover and rainfall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 VFR conditions to persist past the end of the forecast period. Light and variable to calm winds will prevail overnight before somewhat "picking up" this afternoon into evening, while generally staying below ~10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 High pressure over most of the eastern CONUS will keep light to moderate winds generally east to southeast. Low pressure will move into the southern plains by mid week with winds and seas increasing mid to late week. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory could be likely. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Onshore flow will become established early this week which will increase moisture levels. Rain chances increase by mid week as a storm system moves into Texas. Heavy rain may occur by the end of the week as a cold front approaches. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87 AVIATION...87