Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
020 FXUS64 KLIX 272001 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 301 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Convective coverage has been scattered through the day across the region. Most locations have seen at least a shower or two if not a thunderstorm. Late this afternoon most of the convection is currently confined to areas west of I55. However, points east have recovered a good bit so it wouldn`t be impossible for additional convection to fire before sunset this evening east of the I55 corridor. Through the period an upper level low will be situated over the Florida panhandle and south GA/AL. This weakness will continue to enhanced the diurnally driven convection during peak heating. Coverage will remain scattered to numerous Saturday afternoon and cannot rule out a strong wind gust or two as seen today. As for temperatures, think that the highs will not get as warm as they could with the low overhead and lower thicknesses as well as the rain chances during peak heating. However, that said, average for late June is what is forecast, which even then the lower 90s are favored. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Going into the medium range the overall pattern doesn`t change very much from Sunday through the start of the new workweek. The upper level weakness remains allowing for daily showers and storms to develop during peak heating across the land-based zones. The higher POPs/coverage will help mitigate temperatures a bit. Going into midweek there appears to be a slight change to the upper level pattern. A modest H5 ridge develops over the region, which will change a few things that need to be highlighted. First, the coverage of showers and storms will again decrease. As this happens the potential for warmer daytime temperatures, especially with the modest high over the region increase. And with some subsidence, dry air aloft will suggest a slightly higher wind potential in the stronger and wider updrafts. At this juncture, summer is the best way to characterize the next 3-7 days (and even the short term as well). (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Convective coverage and confidence is a bit higher today. Covered this potential with TEMPOs (all but MCB) for reduced VIS/CIGs and locally higher wind gusts around storms this afternoon. Outside of convection light southeast or easterly flow continues with VFR VIS/CIGs expected. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Overall, benign marine conditions continue outside of convection. Light winds and seas on average can be anticipated. However, in and around convection locally higher winds and seas can be expected, especially during the overnight and morning hours. In additional to the locally higher winds and seas, waterspouts cannot be ruled out in the strongest updrafts. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 91 72 90 / 30 50 10 80 BTR 73 93 75 92 / 30 60 20 90 ASD 73 91 73 90 / 20 60 20 90 MSY 78 93 78 92 / 20 70 20 90 GPT 74 90 75 89 / 30 70 30 90 PQL 71 91 73 91 / 30 60 40 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF