124
FXUS64 KLIX 071946
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
246 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

With few clouds to shade us, today has been toasty with highs
about 5 or so degrees above normal into the mid 90s. Light
northeasterly flow on the eastern flank of the surface high is
aiding in subtle compressional warming across areas along and
north of I-10/12. PQL so far is the hot spot with current temp at
96F and heat index of 104F, but similar is being observed across
the area. Surface high pressure, ample mid-level dry air, and
rising heights are the culprit for widespread suppression of
afternoon convection and this is expected to continue through
Saturday as these features moving eastward overhead.

Light northerly flow will also allow filtering in of slightly
drier air across the northern half of the CWA making for more
balmy morning temperatures all the way into the mid to upper 60s!
Another toasty day tomorrow with highs in the mid 90s though with
slightly drier air, heat indices should stay in the low 100s,
below heat advisory criteria. Either way, it`s important early in
the summer season to stay hydrated and limit outdoor work during
the hottest time of the day as many are not going to be acclimated
to summer weather quite yet and more susceptible to heat-related
illness. PoPs remain <10% Saturday afternoon with "highest"
chance being in the Atchafalaya/Terrebonne area.

As the surface high pressure scoots off to the east, onshore flow
returns Saturday afternoon into the evening and heights will begin
to fall in lieu of the next system early next week. Falling
heights and onshore winds will increase low-level moisture and
aid in development of showers and storms especially along coastal
areas on Sunday afternoon. There is a notable split in guidance
for high temperatures dependent on depicted coverage of storms,
have leaned with NBM guidance as expectations are there will be
time for temps to climb quickly through early afternoon before any
cloud cover or cold pooling from storms impact sites.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Going into the next work week, a "cold" front should be sinking
slowly southward through the lower Mississippi Valley. The local
rain chances will depend greatly on exactly how far south this front
makes it before stalling and washing out. All model guidance
generally agrees that the front will lose its forward push as the
upper low lifts northeastward and flow becomes more parallel to the
boundary. However, as is typical this time of year, there is quite a
bit of difference between the various model solutions on the
eventual stall location.

If the front stalls closer to the coast/over the local area, the
boundary would serve as a focus for convection and would lead to
enhanced rain chances through midweek.  If the front stalls north of
the local area, rain chances would be more typical of a summer
regime with mainly scattered afternoon convection.

There has been a fairly decent shift in the consensus guidance with
the latest run of the NBM coming in 20-30 percent higher than the
previous forecast for POPs Tuesday and Wednesday. Given the large
uncertainty, the fact that this time of year fronts don`t often make
it all the way to the coast, and keeping in mind that we want to
avoid a windshield wiper effect with the forecast, have opted to go
with more of an incremental increase in the POP forecast, thus am
generally carrying POPs that are a little lower than the latest NBM
through Wednesday.

By the latter part of the work week, another upper disturbance will
be moving into the lower Mississippi Valley from the northwest.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how this system will
eventually evolve and move, but it looks to interact with a plume of
tropical moisture emanating from the Caribbean to result in more
increased rain chances and possible surface low development. With
this feature moving in on the very tail end of the current forecast
period, sticking close to the NBM seems prudent at this time. The
resultant forecast calls for continued scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. But we will likely see
changes in the forecast with at least a couple periods of more
enhanced rain chances as the eventual evolution of the system
becomes a bit clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions under mostly sunny skies today. Winds will be light
and generally out of the northeast. VFR will persist through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Light northerly winds today will become more easterly or variable
on Saturday. Onshore flow starts Saturday evening as surface high
pressure scoots to the east. A frontal system will slowly progress
southeast through early next week that should stall offshore
Wednesday bringing northerly winds to the area once again. All of
these winds will be 5-10 knots or less. Locally higher winds and
seas will be possible with any storms that develop starting Sunday
into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  92  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  96  74  96 /   0   0   0  20
ASD  69  94  73  94 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  76  93  76  93 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  71  90  75  92 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  67  93  72  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS