211
FXUS64 KLIX 061939
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
239 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- A weak tropical wave will continue to bring plenty of showers
  and a few storms to the area this weekend. As the wave moves
  west, winds and rain chances will lower as we move into the new
  week.


- As easterly to east-southeasterly winds ease, it will allow
  water levels to ease as well causing coastal flood advisories to
  drop. Winds will fall to around 10 to 15 knots which will keep
  tide levels abnormally high today. More easing of these tide
  levels is expected Sunday into the new work week.

- Abundant moisture will help lead to numerous to widespread light
  to moderate showers and embedded thunderstorms through the
  weekend. Areas east of I-55 and along and south of the 10/12
  corridors will have the greatest risk of seeing locally heavy
  rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

This afternoon and early evening is probably the last gasp of any
real impacts. Convection finally started to develop and spread
across the region late this morning and through midday. With
abundant moisture in place showers and any thunderstorms will be
efficient rain producers and a quick 1-2 inches of rain and as we
continue to see a few banded areas of rain we will likely run
into isolated flash flooding. Most areas through this evening will
see rain of 0.5 an inch to just under 2" while there will be
streaks of 2 to possibly as much as 6/7 inches. Convection will
continue into the evening and may persist somewhat into the
overnight hours but the more intense rain will likely start to
wane during the mid/late evening hours.

Sunday will be the last day with above normal PoPs. We will still
have abundant moisture in place and the ridge aloft will not have
quite built in yet from the eastern Gulf as the southern Plains
s/w pulls off to the north. This will lead to our northern half
and maybe more so northwestern half of the area having the best
chance for rain as subsidence starts to increase across the
southeastern 3rd of the CWA.

Heading into the new workweek ridging will build over the area.
This will help to keep PoPs down some but once again this ridge is
building in from the southeast and will be more of a dirty ridge.
Mid lvl hghts will only be around 589-591 dm and PWs will still be
ATA 2" to start Monday but some drier air may rotate around
dropping the PWs to around 1.75 by midday Tuesday. Because of
that we still have PoPs in the forecast but nothing like we have
has the last few days. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Extended portion of the forecast for the most part is much quieter
than the short term. Things will get a little drier and warmer as
we trend more towards a typical Summertime environment. Medium
range models overall have a fairly similar pattern through much of
the work week but they start to diverge at the end of the work
week and especially into next weekend. That said even with the
differences in the models the sensible forecast for our area is
fairly similar. With that no changes made to the extended.

Ridge dominating the Lower MS and much of the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place for another 36 to 48 hours however we will
need to watch the L/W trough moving across the northern half of
the CONUS. Right now that trough it looks like it will just surge
east. With the mid lvl jet likely having already rounded the base
of it and moving to the downstream side, its not going to want to
dig but combine the fact that there will be a ridge to the south
which will block it should keep things on the slightly drier and
warmer side through the remainder of the week and into the
weekend.

Yes There have been some hints at another wave moving into the
Gulf out of the Caribbean but models are all over the place with
it and at this time there is no indication that we have anything
to be concerned about. Lets say it again, it is Hurricane Season
and we should always be paying attention to the tropics and
staying updated/informed. However, until there is something to
worry about, do not worry or waste your time with it. /CAB/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Convection is or will impact most if not all terminals and the
biggest impact is MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys, possibly even LIFR
vsybys with the stronger storms. Outside of convection there is
still a good chance that most terminals will have to deal with low
cigs around 2200-3k ft. Convection should slowly begin to
dissipate early this evening from southwest to northeast but some
if not most terminals may still be dealing with low cigs
especially if heavy rain occurred over any of those terminals.
MVFR cigs that do develop will likely persist well into tomorrow
morning. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Winds are beginning to relax and will continue through the
remainder of the weekend and into the new workweek. Winds are still
around 15-20 knots in the open waters right now and may persist just
into the evening but these should fall off very quick with to near
10 knots before sunrise Sunday. Over the protected waters and
especially the tidal lakes winds are already down to 10-15 knots and
those will also continue to relax. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible with the higher coverage early
in the forecast period. Winds and seas will locally be high in and
near convection. /CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ058-082-084-
     098.

GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB