876
FXUS64 KLIX 090952
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
452 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 441 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Small Craft Advisories are in place for most of the tidal lakes
  through Friday evening. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane
  Warnings are in place for offshore waters.

- Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall on the north
  central Gulf Coast this evening. Southeastern LA coastal areas
  plus inland Jackson County and all of Hancock and Harrison
  Counties MS are under a Tropical Storm Warning and coastal
  Jackson County MS is under a Hurricane Warning. Much of coastal
  southeast LA and coastal MS are under Storm Surge Warnings.

- Potential impacts from Hurricane Isaias include gusty to
  damaging winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and dangerous
  waves/seas on the coastal waters.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 441 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Products updated to incorporate information from the 4 AM CDT NHC
Advisory for Hurricane Isaias.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Hurricane Isaias will be the main concern, with most of the impacts
in the first 24 hours of the forecast, primarily over eastern
portions of the area. Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge
Warnings are in effect for portions of the area with more specific
information in Hurricane Local Statements and TCVLIX.

Rain should move into eastern portions of the area during the
morning hours as it spreads northward. Any significant rainfall is
likely to remain east of Interstate 59, and it may not even rain
west of Interstate 55. The storm will move quickly away from our
area on Saturday, with precipitation ending early Saturday morning.
Dry weather is expected for the remainder of the weekend into early
next week as Isaias pulls drier air into the area behind it. Did
consider a Wind Advisory for a small portion of the southshore,
but the area of most concern, eastern Orleans Parish is already
under a Tropical Storm Warning.

High temperatures may not get out of the mid 70s today across
coastal Mississippi, but will get into the lower and middle 80s west
of Interstate 55. As cooler air gets pulled into the area, lows by
Saturday morning could fall to 60 to 65. Highs Saturday upper 70s
and lower 80s. Sunday and Monday will be unseasonably warm, mid 80s
to lower 90s, but with low humidity. Overnight lows mainly in the
60s, but won`t rule out some upper 50s in the usually cooler
locations. If we get into the lower 90s, it could flirt with records
in a few locations (not Baton Rouge).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

On Monday night, upper and surface ridging will be pretty much
centered over the area. The ridging will eventually slide eastward
to around Atlanta by Thursday. With this pattern, don`t see much of
an opportunity for precipitation, and most days, may not even see
much in the way of clouds. Temperatures will remain well above
normal, as much as 10F above normal. Still won`t rule out areas
reaching 90 degrees on one or more days next week beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

All terminals expected to be VFR at forecast issuance time. That
should remain the case for most of the day before MVFR ceilings
arrive at KGPT, KASD and potentially KMSY and KNEW in advance of
Hurricane Isaias. Some potential for IFR ceilings at those
terminals beyond 00z, more likely after 06z. Winds will likely be
a more significant issue at most terminals this afternoon with
wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible at most terminals. KGPT will
have gusts 40 to 45 knots or higher. LLWS will also be mentioned
at most terminals this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Marine conditions will deteriorate as Isaias approaches the coast by
evening. No changes in headlines anticipated at this time. Isaias
should be well inland by Saturday morning, but it will probably take
most of Saturday for conditions to show significant improvement. By
Sunday, conditions should be much more favorable for marine
operations, and that should continue for much or all of next week.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ070-076-078-091.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ058-077-
     084-087-093-095-097-098.

     Storm Surge Warning for LAZ070-076-078-091.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ529-531-533.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ532-535-536-554-557-575-577.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ534-541-543-551-553-570-572.

MS...Hurricane Warning for MSZ088.

     Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ083>087.

     Storm Surge Warning for MSZ086>088.

     Hurricane Watch for MSZ085.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ531-533.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ535-536-554-557-575-577.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
UPDATE...RW