454
FXUS64 KLIX 020555
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1155 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Persistent easterly winds will continue to to push water towards
  the coast leading to minor coastal flooding at high tide through
  Monday morning. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for
  locations expected to get minor coastal flooding.

- Next system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will
  begin during the Tuesday impacting election day while stronger
  storms will be possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday
  with the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The shortwave trough that has been impacting the region has shifted
east, with weak mid-level ridging beginning to build across the area
in its wake. Although the stronger upper-level support has departed,
considerable low-level moisture remains in place. This should
maintain mostly cloudy conditions overnight, with a few lingering
showers possible. Rain coverage should remain limited as the better
forcing continues to shift away from the region. Weak ridging will
continue to limit convection Monday, although residual moisture and
some weak low-level isentropic ascent could support isolated to
scattered showers, particularly during the afternoon. Temperatures
will remain rather mild for early November, with overnight lows
generally in the mid to upper 60s while afternoon highs should range
from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Attention then turns to the amplified upper-level trough currently
progressing across the western CONUS. With this feature moving into
the better sampled upper-air network, guidance should continue to
converge on its evolution over the next 24 hours. This trough is
expected to move across the central Plains Monday and approach the
Mississippi Valley Tuesday. Ahead of it, increasing southerly flow
will support additional low-level warming and moisture transport
into the region. Temperatures Tuesday should reach the lower to
middle 80s across much of the area, with dewpoints generally
recovering into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Increasing cloud
cover and moisture will accompany the approaching system, with
shower chances beginning to increase across the northwestern
portions of the CWA late Tuesday afternoon. The more significant
forecast question continues to be the specific evolution of the
upper trough as it approaches the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday
night. Recent guidance has trended toward a less amplified pattern
aloft as additional shortwave energy digging southward from Canada
helps draw the stronger circulation and associated dynamics farther
north. This results in a broader, flatter trough across our region,
with the primary surface low remaining well north of the area.
Consequently, the approaching cold front is expected to be
relatively weak, with less pronounced forcing for ascent than
earlier guidance had suggested. This solution has reduced confidence
in widespread thunderstorms, particularly during the overnight hours
when instability will become increasingly limited. Poor mid-level
lapse rates, potential cloud cover during the day Tuesday, and
weakening large-scale forcing should further limit the degree of
destabilization. Although sufficient moisture and modest deep-layer
shear may support a few stronger storms, the overall severe weather
threat appears rather low. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk near the
northwestern portions of the CWA, where any convection associated
with the approaching front would have the best opportunity to become
organized. Isolated strong wind gusts would be the primary concern
from stronger storms, but even thunderstorm coverage remains
somewhat uncertain. Rainfall amounts also appear less impressive
than previously anticipated, with much of the stronger moisture
convergence and ascent expected to remain farther north. Most
locations should receive less than one half inch. The main forecast
uncertainty remains how much convection can develop along the
weakening front and how far east it can maintain itself Tuesday
night.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The weakening upper-level trough and associated frontal boundary
will continue progressing south and east through the region
Wednesday. Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
remain possible, particularly during the morning and across eastern
portions of the CWA, before precipitation chances quickly diminish
from west to east. With the stronger upper-level dynamics remaining
well north of the region, widespread organized convection appears
unlikely. The frontal passage will bring a modest decrease in low-
level moisture, although the associated airmass change will not be
especially pronounced initially. High temperatures Wednesday should
remain in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

By Wednesday night and Thursday, the upper-level flow pattern
transitions to a more zonal configuration across the northern Gulf
Coast. This should support a return to predominantly dry conditions
as weak surface high pressure gradually builds into the region.
Another progressive shortwave is expected to move across the
southern Plains Thursday and the Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday
night. However, limited moisture recovery in the wake of Wednesday`s
front should greatly restrict precipitation potential with this
feature. A weak reinforcing cold front may accompany the disturbance
into Friday, bringing another modest reduction in dewpoints and
slightly cooler temperatures. Otherwise, relatively quiet weather is
expected through Friday and Saturday, with temperatures remaining
near to slightly above seasonal normals during the afternoon. Highs
should generally remain in the middle to upper 70s, while overnight
lows gradually fall into the 50s, with some upper 40s possible
across the typically cooler northern locations late in the week.

Confidence in the overall dry pattern is reasonably high through
Saturday. There are some differences in the timing and amplitude of
additional shortwave energy approaching the central CONUS late in
the weekend, but limited moisture return should keep precipitation
chances rather low through the end of the forecast period. Any
meaningful return of rain appears more likely to hold off until
beyond Saturday, if it develops at all.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Low ceilings will remain the primary aviation concern through the
overnight hours. A moist boundary layer beneath weak ridging should
favor widespread MVFR ceilings which should lower to IFR decks
overnight thru the early morning hours. Confidence in the exact
timing and duration of IFR conditions remains somewhat limited,
particularly where temporary breaks in the clouds occur. Visibility
restrictions should be less significant than ceiling restrictions
given the continued modest easterly flow overnight, although
localized reductions cannot be ruled out. Conditions should
gradually improve Monday morning as daytime mixing increases, with
terminals generally returning to MVFR or VFR. Easterly winds will
persist and increase somewhat during the day Monday. A few isolated
showers are possible, but confidence in direct terminal impacts
remains low.
MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A relatively tight surface pressure gradient will maintain current
moderate easterly flow across the coastal waters through Monday.
Winds will generally remain around 10 to 15 knots across the tidal
lakes and protected bays, with 20 to 25 knots more likely across the
open Gulf waters. Those wind speeds will support seas of 5 to 7
feet, occasionally higher. Thus, have issued a Small Craft Advisory
this evening based on those latest surface obs.

The persistent easterly flow will also continue to support elevated
water levels along east-facing shorelines. A Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect from 1AM through 9AM Monday for portions of the
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts to account for the potential of
minor coastal flooding.

Winds should gradually weaken and become more southeasterly Tuesday
as the pressure gradient relaxes ahead of the approaching cold
front. Given the expected flattening of the upper-level trough aloft
and limited support behind the frontal boundary, a significant post-
frontal wind surge does not appear likely. Winds should shift
offshore Wednesday into Thursday, generally remaining light to
moderate as surface high pressure builds into the region. This will
also allow seas to gradually subside. Showers will be possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday before drier conditions return. A
return to onshore flow is eventually expected as the surface high
shifts eastward.

MEFFER
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ532-
     534>536-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for
     GMZ534>536-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME