461
FXUS64 KLIX 242311
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
611 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Elevated fire danger will continue through the weekend. The
  current and worsening drought conditions and dry fuels combined
  with low humidity and slightly higher winds will lead to
  potential for rapid fire growth. Residents should obey all burn
  bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames
  outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in
  place.

- Strong winds will continue to result in hazardous conditions for
  small craft across most coastal waters of southeast Louisiana
  and Mississippi through Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Strong and deep ridging will remain over the forecast area
through Monday. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the east on
Tuesday as a weak shortwave trough lifts out of the Four Corners,
but a lack of moisture return will keep rain chances minimal
through the short term period. With the center of the surface
ridge to the north-northeast of the area, a persistent east-
northeast wind will keep any low level moisture return at bay.
Thus, a continuation of the conditions we have seen the past
several days with clear skies, low humidity, and a larger than
normal diurnal range of temperature will continue through Tuesday
night. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s each day
and lows will dip into the low to mid 50s inland the upper 50s and
lower south of the tidal lakes and along the immediate coast of
Louisiana.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The dry pattern will persist through the end of the workweek even
as the mid to upper level ridge axis becomes more centered over
the eastern Gulf and southeastern CONUS. This dry pattern will be
due to continued surface ridging centered to the north of the area
maintaining a prevailing east-northeast wind pattern. This pattern
will limit low level moisture return and keep rain chances at less
than 10 percent through Friday. Temperatures will also continue
to exhibit a large diurnal range on the order of 25 to 30 degrees.
Highs will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows will
still cool into the low to mid 50s over inland areas and the upper
50s and lower 60s south of the lakes and along the coast. Overall,
no significant change from the weather we`ve seen the past several
days is expected as we move through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

High pressure will continue to result in VFR conditions through
the period with generally easterly winds 10 kts or lower at most
terminals. Even at the windier terminals winds should remain
below 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A strong surface high will become centered over the northeastern
United States today and then the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday. At the
same time, a broad low pressure system will begin to deepen over the
Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will tighten the pressure
gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly winds picking up
across the open Gulf waters. Winds will become sustained near
20 knots with frequent higher gusts and a Small Craft Advisory for
the outer waters will expand to all waters except for lakes
Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador by late this morning. These
headlines will likely remain up through the weekend and possibly
into next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are going to persist through the weekend as high
pressure remains over the region. Minimum RH values will fall to
between 20 and 30 percent for all areas north of I-10 this
afternoon. There should be some slight recovery on Sunday with the
minimum values between 30 and 40 percent. 20 foot winds are expected
to remain near or below 10 mph today and Sunday north of Interstate
10, and 10 to 15 mph over southeast Louisiana south of Interstate
10. Even with lighter winds, the worsening drought conditions and
low fuel moisture content will keep wild fire spread potential on
the higher side. A Fire Danger Statement remains out due to this
higher fire potential even as conditions remain below red flag
warning criteria. As we move into the new workweek, increasing
humidity values will help to limit fire potential even as conditions
remain dry.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534>536-
     541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ534>536-541-
     543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...PG