925
FXUS65 KLKN 271927
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1227 PM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1227 PM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

* Warming trend today through Monday

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of
  Northern Nevada Monday afternoon

* Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon Tuesday
  through next Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1227 PM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An area of high pressure over the
Desert Southwest will build northwestward across Northern Nevada
this weekend. An upper-level area of low pressure will meander
around the Eastern Pacific Ocean Monday, just off the coast of
Central California. A warming trend is expected today through
Monday. By Monday afternoon, high temperatures across Northern
Nevada will be seven to nine degrees above normal for this time of
year. This will result in a moderate risk for heat-related
illnesses in the valleys of Northern Nevada Monday afternoon.
Although heat events like this are relatively common and happen
many times a year, heat-related impacts are possible for those new
to the area if simple precautions are not taken. Here are
probabilities of maximum temperatures of 95 degrees or higher for
select locations in Northern Nevada on Monday, June 30th, 2025:

Winnemucca - 98%
Elko - 95%
Battle Mountain - 95%
Carlin - 95%
Crescent Valley - 95%
West Wendover - 90%
Denio - 90%
McDermitt - 90%
Montello - 70%
Spring Creek - 45%

The aforementioned upper-level area of low pressure will begin to
slowly move eastward Tuesday. This cyclone aloft should make
landfall over Central California Wednesday. This upper-level area
of low pressure will open up into a trough of low pressure
Thursday as it moves over the Silver State. A ridge of high
pressure will progress eastward across Nevada next Friday.
Isolated thunderstorms could develop each afternoon next week.
Most of these thunderstorms will produce little to no rain. As of
now, it looks as if thunderstorms would be confined to north of
the Interstate 80 corridor.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence
regarding a warming trend today through Monday. Medium forecast
confidence regarding a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in
the valleys of Northern Nevada Monday afternoon. Low forecast
confidence regarding isolated thunderstorm development each
afternoon Tuesday through next Friday. No deviations from the NBM
model output.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hour
period. Breezy southwesterly winds up to 10-15 kts, gusts up to 25
kts this afternoon, dissipated to light winds overnight.

AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor at the
ASOS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions as upper ridging continues to
bring drier and warmer conditions. Min RH values expected to drop
below 15% with elevated winds at 10-15 mph with periods of gusts
up to 25 mph, however remains below critical conditions. Seeing
low chances for isolated/dry thunderstorms next week.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97