536
FXUS65 KLKN 150905
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
205 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will begin cooling today through the
weekend. Dry conditions will persist for much of the area except
for extreme northern Nevada, where a few light showers are
possible Sunday night and Monday morning. Windy condtions are
expected each of the next few afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night. An area of clouds are
moving through northern and central Nevada this morning. Beneath
this area of clouds are the remnants of blowing dust from the
west. Visibilities are slowly coming up this morning though some
areas are seeing five miles or so. For today, a dry southwest flow
will continue. Upper low pressure will move into the Pacific
Northwest states later today with upper high pressure centered
just west of northern Mexico. Heights will continue to decrease
with highs continuing a downward trend. Readings will be in the
70s and 80s in the north with 80s to near 90 degrees in central
Nevada. Winds will be breezy to locally windy out of the west and
northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Skies are expected to
remain partly to mostly sunny with dry conditions. For tonight,
expect mostly clear skies with lows in the 40s and 50s. Some of
the colder locales in northern Elko county will see readings in
the mid 30s.

For Sunday and Sunday night, the upper low will remain over
Washington State with energy splitting off from the main low.
The upper flow will remain mainly west and southwest and
conditions are expected to be dry. Northwest winds will be breezy
to locally windy over the region with speeds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusts to 35 mph. Clear and quiet conditions will remain Sunday
night with lows in the 40s with cooler conditions in the 30s
across the far northern sections of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday

Monday, the upper level trough coming in from the northwest will
bring much cooler temperatures for a brief relief from the heat.
Along the northern border, small chances of less than 20% for
isolated showers throughout the day. High temperatures expected to
plummet below normal into the 50s-60s for northern Nevada and
60s-70s for southern Nevada. Overnight temperatures also expected
to drop into the 30s, just slightly above freezing temperatures.
Northwesterly breezy winds expected in the afternoon at 15-25 mph
gusts 30 mph.

Tuesday through Saturday, models are showing another low pressure
system remaining over western Canada, which will level out the
weather pattern, bringing in a near zonal flow over the western
U.S. bringing in drier weather over the state until Friday where
model confidence begins to lower as some models indicate the
trough moving southward. Despite the near zonal flow, temperatures
are expected to gradually heat back up over the period with
Tuesday highs starting relatively cool in the 60s-70s, but reach
back into the 80s Wednesday and Thursday, with Friday and Saturday
highs expected to reach back into the 90s. Overnight lows also
expected to increase each night starting in the 40s and rising
back into the 60s by the weekend. Afternoon winds expected to
increase each day at 10-15 mph from the south, otherwise, calm
below 10 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at
all terminals. Westerly breezes will be present this afternoon
with gusts 20KTS to 25KTS across the area. Winds ease thru the
evening. Mid-level cumulus are also expected at northern terminals
KWMC, KBAM and KEKO. Haze will continue to be present across the
region although visibility will likely remain greater than 6SM at
all TAF sites. Concern for blowing dust in the afternoon and
evening with greater reductions in VIS possible at KWMC and KBAM.
However there is not enough confidence to include BLDU and
significant VIS reductions in the TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...No active weather is expected through the weekend,
though, gusty westerly winds are expected each afternoon, with
locally higher wind speeds of 30 to 40 mph. RH percentages will
generally range between 8-20% with the strongest winds north of
US-50, and lowest RH`s south of US-50. Temperatures will cool to
the 70s and low 80s by Sunday. Below average temperatures are
expected to begin next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...This afternoon will be the last of the above average
temperature days. These above average temperatures will result in
increased melting from the remaining snow-pack at high
elevations. A series of troughs will move through Nevada dropping
temperatures to average levels for the weekend (upper 70s low
80s), before dropping them further below average (upper 60s) by
Monday and Tuesday. This is expected to temporarily slow the
melting process.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to remain in
action stage for the next several days.

The Humboldt at Comus is expected to rise into action stage this
afternoon, and potentially into minor flood stage by the start of
next week.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height
between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow
melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek
near or above minor flood stage.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/99/99