Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
055 FXUS65 KLKN 061942 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1242 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 * Near freezing temperatures in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada tonight. * Warming trend begins Tuesday and Wednesday. * Gusty south to southwest winds in Central Nevada Wednesday through Friday afternoons. * Precipitation chances return to the forecast Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current synoptic situation depicts an upper ridge west of Oregon and Washington State with an upper trough just west of California. This pattern will bring quiet and dry weather to northern and central Nevada. For the next several days, skies will be mostly sunny during the day and mostly clear at night. Winds will be light though gusts to 25 mph will be prevalent in central Nevada. High temperatures will be undergoing a warming trend with readings in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday and low to mid 70s on Wednesday. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s tonight, with temperatures in the 30s Wednesday morning and 30s and 40s Thursday morning. On Thursday, all models are showing a strong upper low pressure system pushing south and will be off the coast of Oregon. Another afternoon of breezy to locally windy conditions will again be developing in the afternoon. Skies during the day will remain mostly sunny with high temperatures in the 70s. Clouds are expected to be on the increase during the afternoon while strong gusty south to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. These strong winds will be prevalent across mainly central Nevada. Look for chances for light showers to increase during the overnight, especially Friday morning in central Nevada. Overnight lows will be in the 40s. Friday through Sunday, models are depicting the strong upper low opening and traversing east across northern and central Nevada. General precipitation amounts are coming in around a tenth of an inch to four-tenths of an inch, with the valley locations seeing roughly one to two-tenths. High temperatures will cool back into the 50s and 60s through the weekend with overnight lows dipping into the 20s and 30s. Unsettled weather will continue into Monday with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Limited changes were made to the NBM regarding wind speeds on Wednesday and Thursday. Confidence is moderate on the next upcoming storm system though there are minor issues on timing of the onset of precipitation. && .AVIATION...Look for VFR conditions to continue through the 24-hour TAF forecast across all terminals with light winds. KTPH is AMD NOT SKED due to loss of communications. && .FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather concerns are low for the next several days. Look for afternoon temperatures to slowly warm into the 70s by mid-week while minimum relative humidity values remain above critical thresholds. Still watching the potential for strong winds Thursday and Friday with southwest to south winds 10 to 20 with gusts to 30 mph especially across the central Nevada zones. Precipitation chances increase on Friday through the upcoming weekend as another upper trough and surface frontal system look to travel across Nevada through this time. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86