205
FXUS65 KLKN 030844
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
144 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 141 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

* Strong Fall trough to bring beneficial rainfall across
  Northeastern Nevada on Friday.

* Much cooler temperatures expected Friday through the beginning
  of next week with highs in the 50s and 60s, and overnight lows
  in the 20s to 30s.

* Temperature will recover back into the 60s and 70s next week,
  but low chances for showers will accompany the warm-up

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Friday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper level trough associated with
the surface system is a slower moving one and as a result showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected to remain in the area
through Saturday morning. The bulk of the precipitation is
expected on Friday, with most areas expecting half an inch to an
inch of precipitation. Mountain peaks are also expected to receive
a few inches of snow, although with snow levels still above 8,000
feet no snow is expected at passes or valleys. A cold front will
also be present with this system, passing through the area late
today and into tomorrow. Behind the front daytime temperatures
will struggle to reach the 60s and overnight temperatures drop
into the 30s or even 20s. The trough exits to the east late
Saturday but a second, weaker trough is expected to take its
place, keeping conditions unsettled with a chance for isolated
showers mainly on Monday. A slow warming trend also begins on
Monday with daytime temperatures returning to the 60s and a few
low 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for the
presence of numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms through
Saturday morning. There is also high confidence for much cooler
temperatures behind today`s frontal passage. There is still only
moderate confidence in the development of the secondary trough for
early next week.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight
conditions through Friday. However, a strong incoming storm system
will bring increasing chances for -SHRA during the evening across
the KWMC- KBAM terminals, shifting east and south during the
night. -TSRA will be possible, but probability remains below 20%
for any one terminal to meet inclusion in a TAF at this time.
Flight conditions on Friday along with CIGS/VSBY will drop to
MVFR/IFR levels for period of time in the heavier showers. Winds
will be breezy across the southern terminals of KTPH and KELY out
of the SW at 10 to 20 KT with gusts up to 30 KT possible. &&


.FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather concerns will be minimal for the next
several days as a large upper level storm system looks to bring
much needed rainfall and high elevation snow for all fire weather
zones for NE Nevada through Saturday morning. Temperatures will
be much cooler with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and
overnight lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Sunday through
Thursday of next week will see temperatures recover back into the
upper 60s but a second upper trough pushing into the region behind
the first will keep conditions unsettled with a low 10% to 20%
chance of showers.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98