561
FXUS66 KLOX 280047
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
547 PM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...27/530 PM.

Beach impacts from Tropical Cyclones well south of the region are
expected to peak Monday and Tuesday in the form of high surf,
beach erosion, and possible coastal flooding. A significant
warming trend is expected to begin Tuesday with increasing heat
concerns through at least the following weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...27/159 PM.

One of the bigger near term concern continues to be the surf and
coastal flooding, see beaches discussion below for details. Heat
will quickly become more concerning later this week.

Mid-to-high clouds were streaming over Ventura and especially Los
Angeles Counties this afternoon. Cannot rule out a shower or
sprinkle with this activity through this evening focused across
eastern LA County.

For Monday, we will see afternoon to evening breezy northwest to
onshore winds ahead of a decent dry trough. Monday evening
through Tuesday afternoon, there is a weak to moderate offshore
push with a 50-70 percent chance of low end Wind Advisory winds
focused across southern Santa Barbara (especially Santa Ynez range
and foothills) and the mountains near the I-5 corridor where a
Wind Advisory is in place. A near but probably just below
advisory level Santa Ana will follow Tuesday for the most Santa
Ana prone mountains and coastal valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties.

The weak offshore flow will mostly keep any low clouds near or off
of the coast Tuesday and more importantly kick off a warming trend
that will continue especially away from the coast into Tuesday.
Moderate heat impacts are possible as early at Tuesday especially
inland coast to coastal valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. High temperatures in the 80s and 90s will become common
away from the immediate coast during this timeframe.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...27/159 PM.

Above normal confidence in building heat into this weekend and it
will likely remain quite hot for many areas into at least the
middle part of next week. Moderate to high heat risk is possible
with widespread highs in the upper 80s to low 100s in play. A
fairly stagnant pattern with a moderate ridge and prevailing weak
offshore flow (especially in the mornings) looks to be responsible
for the impending heat wave. If current trends hold, this period
of heat looks to be at least advisory worthy for many areas by the
weekend.

National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking the newly formed
Tropical Storm Rachel in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The latest NHC
track brings a Hurricane nearing our swell window by Friday. If
this west to northwest track holds, it could enter our swell
window by early next week. We will continue to monitor, however,
any potential surf or coastal flood impacts would probably occur
after October 4th.

&&

.AVIATION...28/0028Z.

At 2354Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 900 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was at 1900 feet with a temperature of 24
Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KWJF, and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in IFR conds at KSBP/KSMX with a 20% chance
of brief LIFR conds at KSMX.

Moderate confidence in VFR TAFs for remaining sites. Chance of IFR
to MVFR conds arriving after 10Z at KSBA (15%), KOXR (20%) and
KCMA (20%). 30-40% chance of VFR conds at KSMO, KLAX , and KLGB.

Gusty onshore winds expected after 18Z Mon.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance
of MVFR CIGs 09Z-17Z Mon. If cigs form they may bounce between
BKN and SCT frequently. High confidence in no significant east
wind component. Gusty W-SW winds expected after 18Z Mon.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conds.

&&

.MARINE...27/128 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and steep
seas affecting the outer waters through late least Tuesday night.
Local Gale Force gusts will be possible at times, especially
Monday afternoon and evening across the outer waters south of
Point Conception. There is a 20% chance for a Gale Warning to be
issued for that time period. Nearshore along the Central coast
will see SCA winds and steep seas each afternoon and evening
through Tuesday.

For the nearshore waters south of Point Conception, SCA winds may
occur across western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel today,
likely expanding across the entirety of the Santa Barbara Channel
and portions of the inner waters adjacent to Los Angeles and
Orange Counties on Monday, with moderate chances Tuesday.

Southerly swells from Hurricanes Odalys (SSW) and Polo (SSE) will
continue to affect the region through Tuesday. These swells will
create larger waves and surf nearshore, which could impact some
harbor entrances.

Conditions are likely to improve to below SCA levels Wednesday
into next weekend, except for occasional northwest SCA winds near
Point Concpetion in the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.BEACHES...27/131 PM.

Southerly swells from Tropical Storm Odalys and Hurricane Polo
will affect the waters through the middle of this week, with
Hurricane Polo likely sending the more impactful swell from the
SSE (160-170 degrees) affecting our coastline Monday and Tuesday.
This swell timing will likely line up with very high tides Monday
and Tuesday in the late morning hours. Some south-facing shores
are more vulnerable because of the lingering erosion effects from
Hurricane Marie earlier this month.

Surf heights across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties are likely to
peak around 4-7 feet Monday and Tuesday, while the Santa Barbara
south coast should see surf in the 3-5 foot range. High tides
build and peak Monday and Tuesday, likely reaching around 7 feet
(MLLW) in the late morning hours - which is higher by almost a
foot over astronomical tides due to ongoing effects of El Nino.

While this swell is slightly smaller than the swell from Marie,
there is still significant concern of Coastal Flooding over
vulnerable south-facing beaches. The areas of most concern include
Avalon, Long Beach, Malibu, and to a lesser extent Santa Barbara.
The reasonable worst-case scenario is for impacts similar to
those from Hurricane Marie, but the most likely outcome is for
impacts to be a step less. The one exception being Avalon on
Catalina Island, as the swells from Hurricane Polo will be more
from a southeasterly direction than with Marie, which they are
more exposed to. The same goes for Santa Barbara Harbor where the
risk is less but still present.

South-facing beaches should plan for shallow flooding of seawater
over low lying beach walkways, parking lots, and roads as well as
potential for significant beach erosion. Very localized damage to
structures is also possible in the most vulnerable areas. Minor
tidal overflow is possible for west facing beaches due to the very
high tides.

Beach Hazards Statements (BHS) are in effect for LA and Ventura
coasts through early Monday morning, and for the Santa Barbara
south coast into Wednesday. Then a Coastal Flood Advisory and
High Surf Advisory are in effect for LA and Ventura Monday and
Tuesday. A BHS may need to be issued for the LA and Ventura coasts
for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday (lining up with Santa
Barbara) due to the very high tides.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 5 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM PDT Tuesday
      for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Monday to midnight
      PDT Monday night for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Lewis
BEACHES...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox