144
FXUS66 KLOX 251618
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
918 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...25/1252 AM.

Hotter than normal conditions will continue for the foreseeable
future, generally hottest through Sunday. Slight cooling is
expected Monday through Wednesday, with heat increasing again
Thursday into the weekend. The hot daytime and warm night
conditions will bring elevated risks of heat-related illness.
Gusty NW winds will affect SW Santa Barbara County at times, with
gusty onshore winds over the interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...25/917 AM.

***UPDATE***

Marine Layer clouds this morning were along the Central Coast and
into the Oxnard Plain and Along the L.A. County Coast into LAX
and Long Beach. These clouds are slowly burning off and should be
gone by late morning. Then, a mostly sunny day is on tap, with
some thin overhead clouds streaming overhead at times. High
temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s away from the coast,
100-105 in the coastal and interior valleys, except Antelope
Valley which will range between 100-108 degrees. Precipitable
Water is still around 1.1 to 1.5 inches, so it still feels a bit
humid outside, adding to the discomfort from the heat.

The forecast is in shape and no changes were needed to the short
term morning update.


***From Previous Discussion***

A strong upper ridge remains centered over the Four Corners
region, expanding westward over Southern California. Much of the
area lies within widespread Heat Advisories - except for the
Central Coast - with an Extreme Heat Warning for the Antelope
Valley. These headlines remain in effect through Monday night.
Warm overnight lows, especially over the foothills and mountains,
will add to the heat impacts.

Gusty onshore winds were observed over the interior yesterday,
with the Antelope Valley and Foothills gusting 30 to 40 mph.
Across SW Santa Barbara County, Sundowner winds are in the same
general range. These winds will be common each late afternoon to
evening or overnight period through the short term, but will
likely peak this afternoon and tonight. There is a 30% chance for
a low-end Wind Advisory will be possible for southwest Santa
Barbara County. The chance is low enough to not issue it right now
but to continue to monitor the latest guidance.

Fairly high confidence that marine layer clouds will continue to
fill in the southern Central Coast, extending inland to the Santa
Ynez Valley. The persistent marine layer in this area is likely
responsible for cooler daytime highs there. Similar high
confidence that the SBA South Coast will remain clear as northerly
winds continue to affect the Santa Ynez Range. Much lower
confidence further south, with minimal/short lived ceilings
possible for the Ventura Coast, and a slightly better chance for
the LA Coast.

Several models show ample mid-to-upper level moisture rotating
around the upper level ridge and into southern California Saturday
Night through Sunday Night. This moisture is from afternoon
convection over Mexico, which includes a couple of weak
disturbances. Fat drop light showers are possible anywhere in Los
Angeles and maybe Ventura Counties during this period. The
mountains and deserts have the highest chances and decided to add
some slight chances for Sunday afternoon and evening. This impulse
also carries a 5 to 10% chance for thunderstorms, which could be a
fire ignition source.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...25/1252 AM.

The large area of high pressure will continue to dominate through
next week. The core of the high will shift a little to the east
Tuesday through Wednesday and bring a touch of relief to the
heat, but only by a few degrees. Coastal areas will see the most
noticeable drop as onshore pressure gradients strengthen some and
low clouds and fog will likely expand some.

The majority of the ensemble solutions show the ridge of high
pressure pushing back to the west around Friday or Saturday of
next week. This will likely push temperatures back up a few
degrees, but the warming may be mainly focused over the mountains
and interior valleys as the onshore flow changes little.
Thankfully, precipitable water values do not shoot up like they
have over our last week or two of warm ups, which means the air
will feel drier than it has.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0929Z.

At 09Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 3500 ft with a max temperature of 30 Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Sunday at KBUR
KVNY KPMD KWJF. Chances for ceilings today and tonight...LIFR/IFR
conditions at KPRB (10%) KSBP (20%) KSMX (70%) KSBA (10%) KOXR
(20%) KCMA (20%)...IFR/MVFR conditions at KSMO (30%) KLAX (40%)
KLGB (60%). Winds will be similar to last 24 hours.

KLAX...40% chance of BKN008-012 10-16Z today and Sunday. High
confidence in any east winds staying under 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR through at least Sunday with
typical winds.

&&

.MARINE...25/826 AM.

High confidence in persistently strong NW winds from the Central
Coast to San Nicolas Island through at least Tuesday Night. Gusts
of 30-40 knots will be common each afternoon and night, bordering
between strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) and low-end Gale
Warnings. These winds will also affect the western Santa Barbara
Channel each night, and may cover enough of the channel to need a
SCA. With these winds, widespread choppy or steep seas is likely.
In addition, patches of dense fog are possible anywhere through
Sunday or Monday, especially off the Central Coast.

&&

.BEACHES...25/829 AM.

A long period, southern hemisphere swell will arrive this morning
and will add to the continuing swell from Hurricane Fausto. This
swell will result in an increased risk of dangerous rip currents
across the coastal beaches, as well as elevated surf of 3-6 ft
across the Los Angeles and Ventura County Beaches. Therefore,
Beach Hazard Statements are in effect through the weekend for Los
Angeles and Ventura County beaches and the Central Coast beaches.
Rip currents and elevated surf will be strongest across south to
southwest facing beaches and harbors such as Avila Beach.

The Eastern Pacific looks to remain active with tropical systems
over the next couple of weeks. This could result in additional
southerly swells to impact the coastline.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 38-88-342>345-348>358-362-366>382-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday evening for
      zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Monday for zone
      383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CC/RK/KL
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RK
BEACHES...Lund/Black/Sirard
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox