344
FXUS66 KLOX 041909
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1209 PM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...04/1028 AM.

Cooler than normal conditions will continue into next week as
a low pressure system remains over the west. Breezy winds are
expected in some areas today. A warming trend is possible for
late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...04/1209 PM.

Very quiet weather pattern the next several days as a weak upper
level trough develops along the West coast. Still expecting some
gusty west to northwest winds across southern Santa Barbara County
and across the coastal waters through tonight but models indicate
much lighter winds Sunday through Tuesday.

After today`s expected warm up, temperature trends are expected
to be pretty flat or slightly cooler through Tuesday as there`s
very little change in the upper level pattern and onshore flow
remains on the lighter side but slowly increasing each day. Do
expect to see a more traditional marine layer returning by Sunday
or Monday. Forecast soundings show a developing marine layer
Sunday at around 1500 feet and deepening to 2000-2500 feet Monday
and Tuesday. Assuming the marine layer does re-establish overnight
lows near the coast south of Pt Conception will likely increase
as SST`s are in the mid to upper 60s. Opted to go a little above
the NBM min temps in those areas.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...04/1209 PM.

Very little change in the pattern is expected Wednesday with
temperatures and sky conditions very similar to Tuesday. By
Thursday and Friday, however, there are an increasing number of
model solutions that favor a warming trend that could lead to
valley and desert highs getting back up into the upper 80s to mid
90s. This is a result of the upper low finally moving east as high
pressure begins to build north from the desert southwest.

Friday and Saturday may be interesting as there are some model
solutions indicating increasing moisture from the next tropical
system moving off the coast of Mexico. It`s a tricky pattern for
sure as there is also a pretty significant upper level low
dropping down the West coast at the same time. While there are
still a wide range of outcomes, less than 10% of the solutions are
indicating any rain chances locally, with most of the solutions
either keeping the storm moving west over the Pacific or getting
shoved east before it crosses into the US.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1724Z.

At 1635Z at KLAX, there was a very weak inversion with a base at
2700 ft and a top around 4000 ft with a temperature of 13 C.

Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF Package. VFR conditions will
dominate the forecast period, except at KSMX where there is a 40%
chance of LIFR CIGs from 06Z to 12Z Sunday & similar chances for
MVFR CIGs at KLAX/KLGB from 10Z to 17Z Sunday.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance of MVFR
CIGs 010-018 from 10Z to 17Z Sunday. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. VFR Conditions to dominate forecast
period.

&&

.MARINE...04/1120 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across
the outer waters and nearshore waters along the Central Coast
through early Sunday morning, with lulls nearshore through early
this afternoon. Seas will remain choppy and hazardous for small
crafts through tonight. Thereafter, conditions are likely to
remain below SCA criteria through mid-week.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, SCA level winds
& choppy seas are expected across the Santa Barbara Channel this
afternoon and evening. Thereafter, conditions generally look to
remain below SCA criteria through mid-week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox