080
FXUS64 KLUB 170407
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
1107 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

 - Triple-digit temperatures expected Tuesday.

 - There is a low chance of thunderstorms in the Rolling Plains
   late Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, some may be severe
   Tuesday.

 - Warm and dry conditions to return mid-week and remain in place
   through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Subtropical ridging will continue to deamplify over the next 24
hours as a shortwave trough emerging over the Pacific Coast ejects
towards the Rocky Mountains. In response, leeward pressure falls
will tighten, with cyclogenesis occurring near the Raton Mesa and
the OK/TX PH region, leading to an increase in southerly winds
later this afternoon and lasting into tomorrow. The dryline will
mix eastward tomorrow in response to the deepening cyclone and as
the shortwave trough ejects into the central Great Plains, with
the dryline bisecting the CWA along a GNC-LBB-CDS line by the
afternoon hours. Triple-digit temperatures are forecast area-wide,
with advisory-level heat possible across portions of the South
Plains tomorrow afternoon (i.e., 105 degrees or greater). Highs
will still be short of records at CDS and LBB. Deep mixing of the
boundary-layer will occur even in the moist sector, and an
isolated, high-based thunderstorm or two will be possible along
and east of the dryline, with initiation focused along any bulging
of the circulation. Storms may become weakly supercellular given
deep-layer shear magnitudes near 30 kt and small, curved
hodographs. Storms that become severe will be capable of producing
locally damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, large hail up to ping
pong ball size, and torrential rainfall. The potential for storms
will wane following nocturnal stabilization of the boundary-layer.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Mostly quiet weather is expected through the extended period with
an upper level ridge and associated area of high pressure
continuing to dominate over the western CONUS. The only potential
disruption may come Wednesday, as a cold front begins advancing
southward towards the region, as an H5 shortwave trough translates
through the Upper Midwest. There remains a bit of discrepancy
amongst models still regarding the exact positioning of the front
by Wednesday afternoon, with most models stalling the front in the
vicinity of the Permian Basin. If the front does stall in our
area, dewpoints progged in the mid 60s in combination with lift
associated with the front could be just enough for a few isolated
thunderstorms to develop. That said, coverage looks low, and
confidence in measurable precipitation remains limited at this
time.

Behind the front, slightly cooler air will begin to filter into
the FA Wednesday, although temperatures will not drop
significantly, we do expect highs to be a few degrees cooler,
holding in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dry conditions quickly
return by Thursday as the upper level ridge begins to amplify over
the Desert Southwest. This will lead to increasing thickness and
height values across the region, which in combination with mostly
sunny skies and southerly component to the winds, will lead to the
continuation of hot temperatures through the week and into the
weekend with highs ranging in the 90s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Breezy southerly winds will increase further out of the SW by late
morning, potentially gusting to 30 kts at KLBB and KPVW through
this evening. VFR will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...19