874
FXUS64 KLUB 030524
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1224 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

 - Warm today with a chance for an isolated storm or two this
   evening.

 - Cooler and wetter conditions expected to return Friday through
   the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A broad upper level ridge will remain positioned across much of the
western CONUS, while a potent upper level low sets up across the
Great Lakes region with an associated large scale trough
encompassing much of the eastern half of the U.S. Shortwave
disturbances translating through the base of the trough are
expected to track into portions of the Southern Plains, which will
in turn attempt to push a cold front into the Texas Panhandle
region late this evening as the surface low across the Canadian
Provinces shifts east. Warm temperatures are expected to continue
this afternoon, thanks to the potential cooler airmass remaining
well to our north. Winds across the FA will begin to shift out of
the southwest around daybreak as a lee trough develops to our
northwest. This combined with clear skies and remaining under the
influence of the upper level ridge, although thickness and height
values remain neutral, will allow for temperatures to warm into
the 90s. As for the potential FROPA, hi-resolution models have
come into better agreement with the timing of this backdoor front
in recent runs, arriving in the northern Texas Panhandle by this
evening where it looks to potentially stall out through the rest
of the evening. The front then looks to get back on track some
time after midnight, as the surface high across the Central Plains
dives south, reinforcing the weak front southward closer to the
area. Despite this, models continue to wash this front out in the
vicinity of the far southern Texas Panhandle while a lee surface
trough develops across eastern CO.

Given the front looks to arrive later than originally anticipated,
weak forcing aloft, and limited moisture in place with dewpoints
progged in the 50s, precipitation looks less likely this afternoon.
Although chances do remain non-zero as we remain under the influence
of northwest flow aloft and there is expected to be a few subtle
ripples within the flow aloft tracking through the region this
afternoon. If thunderstorms develop, they are expected to be
isolated and high based given the inverted-v nature of forecast
soundings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Dry and quiet weather is expected at the beginning of the extended
period as the FA remains under the influence of the 589 dam
subtropical ridge. Meanwhile to our north, the longwave trough
will continue to encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS as
the associated low translates through the Great Lakes. Despite
height values decreasing, dry and warm southwesterly winds
combined with mostly clear skies will aid in the warm up of
temperatures into the mid 90s to lower 100s Thursday afternoon.
Towards the end of the work week things finally begin to change as
we see the return of cooler and wetter conditions in the region.
Ensemble guidance continues to hint at the tropical disturbance
located across Baja Mexico will track northeast, becoming absorbed
into the main flow. This will result in southwest flow aloft to
return to the region which will allow for increased moisture to be
transported into the region. Simultaneously, another shortwave
will track through the southern periphery of the large scale
trough to our northeast which will push an additional, stronger,
FROPA into the region by mid-morning Friday. Lift associated with
front, combined with increased moisture in place will allow for
precipitation chances to return by Friday afternoon. If the
ensembles come to fruition, and the tropical disturbance is able
to track closer to the region, we will continue to see increased
moisture being pumped into the region with dewpoints progged in
the 60s area-wide. In addition to PWATS climbing above the 90th
percentile normal for this time of year around 1.5" through the
weekend. In return, we will see coverage in precipitation become
widespread through the weekend with the potential for heavy
rainfall. Precipitation chances look to be highest overnight
Saturday into Sunday morning, where we find ourselves under the
best jet dynamics as we find ourselves within the left exit region
of the H5 upper level jet streak. However, this will all be
dependent on if the ensembles come to fruition, with confidence in
the evolution of this system still low given this event is still
several days out. Northwest flow aloft looks to return to the
region by Monday as the system departs to the east, and ridging
begins to amplify across the Desert Southwest. As moisture remains
in place and disturbances ripple through, we will likely see
higher terrain thunderstorms track into the region during the
afternoon Monday and Tuesday.

As for temperatures, a sharp gradient in temperatures is expected at
this time Friday, as the front arrives to our northern counties by
mid-morning and passes through the entire FA by the early evening
Friday. This will lead to highs Friday in the low 80s across the
far southwestern Texas Panhandle Friday and in the mid 90s across
the southeastern Rolling Plains. Highs will stay on the cooler
side with highs steady in the 70s and 80s through the weekend into
early next week thanks to the expectation of showers and
thunderstorms, along with lingering cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR will prevail at all sites through this TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30