Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
565 FXUS64 KLUB 101732 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1132 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Quiet weather, with well above-average temperatures Thursday through Saturday. - Cold front moves through Sunday, then warming again into next week. - Dry conditions expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Little has changed with the synoptic pattern within our region over the past 24 hours, and benign weather will continue given ongoing dry and stable northwest flow aloft. Initially strong northeast breezes behind the earlier morning front will gradually subside through the rest of the day and become light this evening as surface high pressure settles over the region. Tonight, this ridge will position over central TX which will turn surface flow back southwesterly overnight, keeping lows relatively mild considering the post-frontal airmass. West-southwesterly surface winds will strengthen a bit more during the daytime on Thursday as a ripple in the flow aloft deepens a lee surface trough axis over eastern CO. The resulting downslope component along with modest midlevel height rises will result in a dramatically warmer day compared to today, with highs Thursday running about 20 degrees normal for this time of year as afternoon temperatures warm into the 70s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The extended weather pattern remains generally unchanged from the previous forecast. Despite breezy NE winds developing Friday west of relatively low pressure, the warm airmass aloft will remain in place ahead of a ridge over the Desert Southwest with heights ranging from 576-579 Dm. Corresponding high temperatures will mostly be in the mid 60s. A return of SW surface flow Saturday will bring even warmer temperatures into the 70s for many locations. A strong cold front will drop highs over 20 degrees on Sunday to near 50 with increased cloud cover. Southwest winds will return thereafter and above- average highs will return through what looks to be all the way through next week. An upper trough will move in from the west on Monday. Current model agreement remains poor as to it progression, however at time it appears that all of the associated moisture will remain off to the east. Thus a PoP-free forecast has been maintained. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR will prevail at all TAF sites. Northeast winds will continue to weaken through the rest of this afternoon, then become light this evening before turning southwesterly by Thursday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...30