581
FXUS64 KLUB 100728
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
228 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to be ongoing as of 2 AM CDT.
Most precip has moved to the Rolling Plains and far southern Texas
Panhandle. Heavy rainfall continues to be a primary hazard due to a
combination of high rainfall rates and training storms. Rainfall
rates, at times, have been as high as nearly 7.5 inches an hour and
have triggered Flash Flood warnings. Though decreasing in coverage,
an upper disturbance embedded within the upper high that is overhead
will help to sustain convection through the rest of the night. The
upper disturbance will also help to keep convection going through
much of the day today and through the overnight hours, but coverage
should be less than yesterday as lift will be concentrated over
northern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. The best rain chances
across the FA will come from any remnant surface boundaries. Cloud
cover will help to keep highs on the cool side today ranging from
the low 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Thunderstorms will still be possible through much of the day
tomorrow as an upper shortwave continues moving along the east side
of the upper high. While widespread severe storms are not expected,
the passing trough could allow for fairly steep lapse rates and
allow for some storms to become strong to low end severe with one
inch hail and 60 mph winds being the primary threat. Heavy rainfall
will continue to be possible as well given rich moisture across the
region. The blocking pattern will remain across the southwestern US
through late week with the upper high portion of the block
dominating the Four Corners and eastward to the central GOMEX coast.
The upper high will help to suppress most convection across the FA.
Some diurnal convection could still be possible, however, as the FA
will remain under the eastern edge of the upper high and surface
moisture will remain abundant. Any weaknesses that move along the
edge of the high could allow for popcorn thunderstorms. Surface
moisture should help to keep temps below the century mark through
Friday and possibly into the weekend, at which time the block should
break down with an upper shortwave trough kicking the ridge
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

TS will gradually wind down from SW-NE through daybreak ahead of
widespread MVFR with occasional IFR CIGs. Stratus may improve to
VFR through the afternoon, although confidence in this is low so
will keep TAFs pessimistic given cool and moist upslope winds all
day. Additional SHRA and TS are possible at any point through the
day so will hedge with VCSH mention at all sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...93