487
FXUS64 KLUB 041125
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
525 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Slightly warmer today as southerly winds develop, followed by
  modestly cooler temperatures for Thursday-Sunday.

- Breezy southerly winds are expected on the Caprock Wednesday
  afternoon, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

- Precipitation chances are low through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

An Omega-shaped synoptic pattern is present this evening, with
upper lows over IA and CA, and ridging from the Four Corners
northward to MT. The frontal system that moved through yesterday
has shifted well south, with the cold front reaching the TX Gulf
Coast as of 5pm/22z. In its wake, weak sfc high pressure (1018mb)
is progged to move in tonight, with winds weakening quickly after
sunset. Dewpoints across the FA are in the 40s currently, and lows
will drop to near these values as favorable radiational cooling
conditions develop (light winds, mostly clear skies). As dewpoint
depressions shrink overnight, there is a low chance for fog, but
to this point there has not been a strong enough signal to warrant
a mention in the forecast. The NBM has just a 10% chance for
visibility less than 5 miles.

As the approaching upper low shifts towards the Four Corners
tomorrow, sfc pressure falls over the Panhandles will result in
southerly flow developing locally. That should boost temps a bit
relative to Tues, although high-res models indicate an east-west
oriented plume of high cirrus clouds over areas south of the TX
Panhandle, which may temper the warming slightly. Overall, it
looks like a very pleasant day, with highs in the upper 60s to low
70s. Those southerly winds may be a tad breezy on the Caprock,
with gusts 20-30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

In the upper levels, a split flow pattern develops and persists.
While another upper disturbance is progged to move onto the
central Plains by Sat, limited moisture return suggests precip
chances will be sparse, and this wave isn`t quite in phase with a
southern stream low over AZ which lessens the large-scale forcing.
The NBM PoPs are low, just 10-15%, but with little else in the
forecast right now it`s at least a time frame to monitor.

Temps will be on the cool side Thurs-Sun, and while a freeze is
still unlikely there may be some nights that are cool enough for
frost, especially Thurs night into Fri AM as the presence of sfc
high pressure results in good radiational cooling conditions
(clear skies, light winds). Highs during this time period will
generally be in the upper 50s and 60s, while lows will range from
mid/upper 30s to mid 40s. A slight warming trend is anticipated
into the following week.

Precipitation may return by the middle of next week, depending on
the evolution of the closed low over the SW US (and perhaps an
additional wave moving through the southern jet stream). However,
guidance is often too quick with these closed upper lows, and
deterministic models hint at a Rex Block developing over the
western US early next week (upper ridge poleward of upper lows),
and this blocking pattern would also favor a slower evolution. All
told, rain occurring next week is far from a sure thing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites. Light winds this morning will
strengthen a bit and turn southerly this afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...30