792
FXUS64 KLUB 031704
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1104 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

 - Cooler temperatures will continue through the work week with
   highs generally in the 60s area-wide.

 - Breezy afternoon winds expected this afternoon, then again
   Wednesday afternoon across the Caprock.

 - Precipitation is not expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Satellite imagery late this morning depicts the cold front has made
its way into the I-20 corridor, with post frontal northerly winds
prevailing across the FA. These northerly winds are expected to
continue through much of the day, becoming breezy to low-end windy
through early afternoon as the surface low out ahead of the parent
H5 trough translates eastward through the South Plains. In turn,
pressure gradient increases will occur allowing wind speeds around
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Speeds will then
decrease by late afternoon towards sunset as the surface trough
ejects northeast and the pressure gradient begins to relax across
the region. Considering the post frontal, cooler, airmass in place
combined with northerly winds and decreased geopotential heights, we
can expect a cooler afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to upper
60s. These quiet and cooler conditions will continue into the
overnight period as wind speeds remain light under mostly clear
skies, allowing for max radiational cooling to occur. As a result,
expect lows in the mid to upper 30s and 40s, with the cooler
temperatures fixated across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle.
Wednesday will feature another quiet day as the omega blocking
pattern breaks down as a weakening shortwave ridge translate into
the region in response to a shortwave trough moving into the Four
Corners region. Near the surface, a surface trough will develop
across northeastern New mexico, prompting northerly winds to slowing
shift out of the west by the morning, becoming more southerly
through the afternoon where they will become slightly breezy across
the Caprock with speeds around 10 to 20 mph. These warmer and
breezier winds along with the slight uptick in heights and thickness
values will prompt afternoon highs to become a few degrees warmer.
Though still near seasonal normals in the 60s to low 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Mostly quiet weather is expected to take place through the extended
forecast package across the South Plains. Synoptically speaking, the
extended will start with as shortwave trough translating into the
Southern Plains, becoming absorbed into the main parent trough flow
by the late work week as it track eastward into the ArkLaTX region.
Given the northerly placement of this trough in combination with
lack of moisture and associated lift, the forecast remains dry
across the region. Though any perturbation that tracks through and
can tap into the minimal moisture Thursday morning may allow for a
few isolated rain showers with some hi-resolution models picking up
on this. Regardless, precipitation amounts will be light, if any at
all. Otherwise, a dry forecast is in place through the extended. As
for temperatures, cool, fall like temperatures will prevail, with a
reinforced push of cooler air expected as winds shift out of the
north as a boundary pushes through the area Thursday in response to
the departing H5 shortwave and surface trough translating through
the Southern Plains simultaneously. We expect this push of cooler
air to stick around, failing to mix out with afternoon highs in the
50s and 60s through the remainder of the work week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR will likely prevail through the TAF period. There is a very
low chance of fog early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01