Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
032 FXUS64 KLUB 111110 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 510 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 509 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 - Well above-average temperatures and dry conditions through Friday. - Potential cooler and wetter pattern later this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 It will remain quiet but slightly breezy through the morning hours thanks to surface troughing extending southward from Manitoba. A surface low is expected to develop near the base of this surface trough across northeastern New Mexico. This will create moderately breezy conditions across the FA through much of the afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will begin to relax as the surface low moves over the region after sunset. A weak cold front will follow behind the southward moving surface low and should be through the entire FA by sunrise Wednesday. Along with being breezy, winds will be out of the west to west-southwest today and will keep dewpoints in the low 20s, resulting in relative humidity dropping to 10 to 15 percent by the afternoon. This will create elevated fire weather danger area wide, especially as fuels are becoming dormant thanks to Monday morning`s hard freeze. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Light northerly winds in the wake of a cold front will bring high temperatures Wednesday down by about 5 degrees from today. Southwest winds will return Thursday and upper heights will increase as the ridge axis passes overhead. As such, highs will return into the low- to-mid 80s for much of the area. Combined with the low humidity, this may lead to some elevated fire weather concerns. A relatively strong upper low will move onshore into Southern California by Friday. An increase in SW flow aloft will allow for even more warm advection and highs may be a couple degrees warmer than Friday for some locations off the Caprock. Models again are quite different from this time yesterday. Luckily the GFS/ECMWF remain in fairly good agreement for this far out. However, they have both significantly slowed down the progression of the aforementioned upper low. If the current solutions were to hold, Saturday would be a much warmer and drier day than previously forecast. NBM temperatures correspondingly came in higher (mid 70s to near 80), however it retained the chance PoPs for the latter half of the day. These have been slightly curtailed, however remain in the forecast to account for continued uncertainty. The low looks to become completely cutoff from the main flow pattern by Sunday, with the GFS lifting it off to the northwest faster than the ECMWF. In any case as of now, this would be the best day to see any precipitation. Again, NBM is still catching up to latest trends, but PoPs are in the forecast for Sunday. Dry conditions look to return early next week under a trailing ridge. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 509 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 VFR conditions will continue. Southwest winds will become a bit breezy mid-morning and persist to late afternoon before diminishing and shifting to north with the passage of a weak cold front. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...07