Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
333 FXUS64 KLUB 090612 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1212 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 - Much cooler and still a bit breezy today, with sub-freezing temperatures expected across the entire forecast area tonight. - Cooler temperatures continue Monday, then generally warm and dry conditions through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1210 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 The synoptic pattern remains characterized by an impressive upper level trough axis which spans from the Hudson Bay all the way southward into the Gulf Coast states, with a smaller-amplitude upper ridge in place over the Great Basin. This general setup will not change significantly over the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of deep northwesterly flow aloft over the West TX region. North winds will remain on the breezy side through most of today before finally becoming light this evening as the center of expansive surface ridging positions close by. Continued low level cold advection and suppressed layer thicknesses will make today the coolest of the entire upcoming week, with highs this afternoon in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. Tonight, the cool airmass, light winds, and mainly clear skies will result in a chilly overnight period as most locations see lows in the upper 20s and low 30s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1210 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 A deep upper trough encompassing the entire eastern half of the country will begin to track farther eastward on Monday. Northerly flow aloft between the trough and a building upper ridge to the west will keep temperatures below-average for one more day despite SW surface winds developing, with highs Monday only reaching the low-to- mid 60s. Otherwise there remains very little change from yesterday. The ridge will displace the influence of the trough over our area by Tuesday and persist through Friday. Outside of a weak shortwave and its associated surface cold front later Tuesday into Wednesday, upper heights will remain mostly the same and highs will generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s under mostly sunny skies. Model agreement diverges into next weekend with the GFS much more progressive with a deep upper trough moving into the area, while the ECMWF remains slower and takes a cutoff upper low on a more northerly track. In any case, it remains too far out to determine if a pattern change will occur. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR and steady north to northeast breezes will continue at all sites through this TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...30