901
FXUS61 KLWX 291300
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mainly dry cold front will cross the region today. High pressure
will slow drift north and northeast of the area this weekend
through the middle of next week. Upper-level disturbances may
bring a few showers to the Allegheny Mountains at times, but
most of the area will remain dry with below normal temperatures.
The next frontal system may bring higher rain chances toward
the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid/upper trough axis is moving east of the area as of mid
morning, resulting in a few sprinkles across the northern
quarter of the area. The surface cold front trails low pressure
in southern Quebec, arcing back toward the upper Ohio Valley and
Appalachians Mountains.

The cold front will continue across the area today, although any
precipitation is unlikely east of the Allegheny Front (though a
sprinkle can`t be ruled out). There may be a period of broken
cloud cover, and northwest winds may gust to around 20 mph in
the front`s wake. Temperatures will still rise into the mid 70s
to lower 80s as cold advection will be weak (though this is
still below normal).

High level clouds may increase tonight as a jet streak passes
within the longwave trough aloft. Those clouds, plus the fact
the surface high is still lagging to the northwest, may mean
temperatures don`t plummet too quickly. Even so, temperatures
trend downward for most areas compared to this morning, with
readings in the 40s and 50s. Some higher elevation valleys could
drop into the 30s if low clouds don`t develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Longwave troughing encompasses the eastern CONUS through the
remainder of the weekend while surface high pressure inches
eastward across the Great Lakes region. Remaining high level
clouds likely clear out Saturday. A more prominent shortwave
trough will pivot across the area Sunday which may increase
clouds. Moisture will pool in an inverted trough along the
Appalachians, so a few showers and thunderstorms are possible
in the southwestern corner of the CWA, especially during the
afternoon hours. Most locations remain dry though.

Temperatures remain consistently below normal through the
weekend. Highs will largely be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level trough will remain in place across the East next
week maintaining the cooler than normal temperatures. At the
surface, high pressure will prevail during the first half of next
week keeping generally fair weather.  Moisture will increase during
the middle and second half of next week ahead of an occluded front
approaching the region from the Great Lks and Midwest. The best
chance of showers will come from this occluded front during the Thu
and/or Fri time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mainly dry cold front will cross the area today. SCT to
perhaps BKN cumulus will develop along the front and with
daytime heating. Winds will also shift to the northwest, with
some gusts to around 20 kt possible from midday into the
afternoon.

High pressure will build north of the area through the weekend.
VFR conditions are most likely with any minimal shower potential
and lower ceilings likely confined closer to the Appalachians.
Will have to monitor for potential nighttime low clouds and fog
near CHO and MRB though. Light N to NE winds are expected.

No sig weather expected Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the waters around midday, shifting
winds to the west and northwest. While marginal, there is enough
evidence of post-frontal gusts around 20 kt that a Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for favored areas of the upper tidal
Potomac River and northern sections of the Chesapeake Bay. Some
advisories may need to be extended into tonight as a surge of
northerly winds progresses down the bay, though gusts would
likely remain marginal near 20 kt.

High pressure starts building north of the area over the
weekend. Weaker pressure gradients should keeps winds less than
advisory criteria as they shift to northerly Saturday and
northeasterly or easterly Sunday.

The next chance for SCA conditions is Wed night through Thu.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>532-535-538>540.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS/DHOF
NEAR TERM...ADS/DHOF
SHORT TERM...ADS/DHOF
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/DHOF
MARINE...ADS/LFR/DHOF