588
FXUS64 KLZK 022322 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
622 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...Corrected AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Widespread rain chances will slowly expand east across the state from
  Thursday into Friday, continuing into the weekend

- Highest rainfall amounts are expected across western Arkansas
  with amounts tapering off to the east

- Much cooler temperatures likely from Friday through early next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Recent radar imgry depicted sctd covg of precip moving NEwrd acrs
the the NWrn half of the FA, located along a 35kt H850 LLJ. At the
sfc, a cdfrnt was noted moving SE slowly acrs the Cntrl Plains and
portions SErn KS. Thru the day Fri, expect this cdfrnt to continue
moving SEwrd into the FA, reaching NWrn AR b/w 12-15Z, but lkly
stalling acrs Cntrl AR. Asctd precip activity wl continue along a SW
to NE axis along the frnt, w/ latest HREF/REFS 50th percentile
guidance indicating a swath of 1-2 inches possible over much of Wrn
to NWrn AR thru Sat. NBM 50th percentile is also advertising similar
amounts, while much of Cntrl to SErn AR looks to receive minimal
rainfall, generally under one half to one inch. Some high-res LPMM
guidance suggests a few swaths of 2+ inches could be possible, but
rainfall amounts of this magnitude wl be confined any areas of
significant training.

Sat thru Sun, the previously stalled frnt should continue to slowly
move Swrd, ushering drier and cooler air into the region, w/ low
chance precip lingering over SErn AR. This frnt should bring a
seasonal airmass change to the region, w/ low temps in the 50s
expected on Mon mrng, and lows in the 40s acrs portions of the state
by Tues mrng. Thru early to mid-week next week, stronger H500 flow
wl recede poleward, w/ weak flow aloft and post-cdfrntl condns
contributing to below normal high temperatures acrs the FA, though
as Srly sfc flow resumes by mid-week, daily high temps wl trend
upwards once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Mostly MVFR & IFR CIGs to improve to mostly VFR & MVFR CIGs
overnight as dry air behind to cold front moves into the region.
They will then lower again to mostly MVFR with embedded IFR CIGs
tomorrow morning before slowly improving back to VFR throughout
the day. Winds remain generally light out of the north with an
occasional gust at southern terminals.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  59  73  60 /  90  30  10  20
Camden AR         84  64  79  63 /  60  20  10  40
Harrison AR       70  58  73  58 /  70  10  10  10
Hot Springs AR    78  63  75  62 /  80  20  20  30
Little Rock   AR  77  63  74  63 /  80  30  10  30
Monticello AR     83  66  81  65 /  50  10  20  50
Mount Ida AR      77  60  74  59 /  90  20  30  20
Mountain Home AR  69  57  75  57 /  90  20   0  10
Newport AR        74  62  73  62 / 100  20  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     78  63  77  62 /  80  20  20  40
Russellville AR   77  62  75  61 / 100  10  20  20
Searcy AR         76  62  73  61 /  90  20  20  20
Stuttgart AR      75  64  76  63 /  80  30  10  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...78