497
FXUS64 KLZK 171123
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
623 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Arkansas River Valley
  and the Mississippi River Delta Thursday

- Isolated showers & t`storms possible in west, & south Arkansas on
  Thursday

- Dry air begins to move into the region, below 30th percentile Min
  RHs possible over the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The H500 ridge that has been dominating headlines for several weeks
now will shift westward during the day Thurs with its peak of 600Dm
heights centered over the AR River Valley. Wide spread near record &
record temps are expected to continue through at least the first
half of the weekend. Thurs afternoon isolated showers and t`storms
are possible across portions of west and southern Arkansas. Coverage
will likely be more limited with the focusing of the ridge directly
over the state. Within these storms a strong gust of wind or two and
frequent lightning would be the biggest hazards. Any development
will decrease coverage quickly after sunset with loss of heating.

Dew points are starting a slow trend downward, which is
a double edge sword. The drier air will take an edge off the
oppressive heat indices and allow for some areas to start to be
removed from heat advisories, and potentially removing all heat
headlines by mid next week. However, this will also start to drop
Min RHs below 30th percentile over the weekend. With the more humid
conditions we have been experiencing have been some help with fire
weather due to saturated low levels. Over the weekend we lose this
as drier air works its way into the region. Combine this with the
very dry fuel loads, fire behavior will likely become more
aggressive over the weekend.

Brief relief may be in site to start next week. The H500 ridge will
finally show some weakness and break down at the start of the week.
This will allow for a shortwave to track across central MO with an
attached cold front. Model spread run to run is still wide on how
far south the front can make it and if a shot of tropical moisture
will arrive ahead of the front for more widespread PoPs. Current
trends and pattern suggest that the front will likely struggle to
make it south across large portions of the CWA. This in turn would
limit the overlap of forcing and moisture leading to not much
difference than the random pop-up pattern we are in now for QPF
totals.

As soon as the short wave leaves another ridge will start to build
back into the area mid next week continuing the run of near record
highs and little to no rain for the foreseeable future. Models
continue to advertise cooler temps at the end of the period that are
replaced with a more realistic well above average temp under the
pattern. This is likely in part due to model climatology that is
being skewed by normal temps dropping around 10 degrees by the end
of the month. Any advertised heat relief should be taken with a
grain of salt until a discernible breakdown in the ridging pattern
occurs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR flight categories to prevail through the period. Winds remain
generally light out of the south with and occasional gust.
Afternoon showers and t`storms are possible across W and S AR
Thurs. Within these storms stronger wind gusts and sub VFR flight
conditions are possible. Coverage of any afternoon convection will
not be widespread enough to include at any sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    101  74 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         99  71 100  69 /  20   0   0   0
Harrison AR       96  73  96  72 /  20  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    99  73 100  71 /  20   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR 100  75 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     97  73  99  73 /  20   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      99  70  99  68 /  20  20   0   0
Mountain Home AR  98  72  98  70 /  10  20   0   0
Newport AR       100  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR    100  72  99  71 /  20   0   0   0
Russellville AR  100  73 100  72 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR        100  73 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR     100  74 102  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-043>047-057-121>123-
130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...78