583
FXUS64 KLZK 221121
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
621 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

-A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place across the entire
state of Arkansas for storms which are expected to impact the state
between this early afternoon into the late evening.

-The main hazards with storms which become severe will be damaging
wind gusts and a few instances of large hail.

-High temperatures across most of central and southern Arkansas will
manage to reach and/or eclipse the century mark before the frontal
boundary and associated scattered storms move into Arkansas.

-Heat Advisory remains in effect across southern Arkansas as heat
 index values will manage to reach between 105 and 109 for a
 period of several hours before storms are expected move into this
 part of the state this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The continued trend of northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas will
remain. An upper lvl shortwave progged to move over the state will
allow a weak front to drop down into Arkansas by early afternoon and
track southward across the state. The airmass ahead of this
advancing weak cold front will be hot and humid with plenty of CAPE
allowing for the expected development of scattered thunderstorms
across the state between early this afternoon into late this
evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has designated the entire state of
Arkansas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today
with the main hazards possible as damaging wind gusts and a few
instances of large hail with any storm that does manage to become
severe.

Before the anticipated arrival of the weak cold front and associated
scattered convection, high temperatures are expected to reach or
exceed 100 degrees across most of central and southern Arkansas. A
challenging high temperature forecast for today as locations across
the state, especially in central and southern Arkansas will likely
experience compression heating just ahead of the advancing front
where temperatures will quickly, but briefly rise a few degrees
before the frontal boundary overtakes a location. For this reason
and overall trends during this heatwave have trended toward NBM 75%
and NBM 90% values.

For the remainder of the forecast period, from Sunday through the
upcoming workweek, expect hot temperatures to persist with a few
days of relief possible which would lower temperatures a tad to
normal values for this time of the year as multiple weak frontal
boundaries are anticipated to move across the state which will
promote appreciable POP chances (expected on Monday) and modest POP
chances (on Wednesday into Wednesday Night).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR flight category will be present across all sites for the
majority of the forecast period from Saturday morning through Sunday
morning. The exception will be scattered storms which are expected
to move from north to south across the state of Arkansas. The
timeframe for when these storms will move across the state will be
from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. If a storm happens
to directly move over a TAF site VSBY will likely drop to MVFR or
possibly as low as IFR flight category for a brief period of time in
addition to surface wind gusts associated with the storm in excess
of 40 knots. Cumulonimbi will reach altitudes as high as 40,000 to
45,000 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    100  71  94  70 /  60  20   0  50
Camden AR        104  72  99  73 /  10  30  10  20
Harrison AR       93  68  89  68 /  40  20  20  60
Hot Springs AR   103  73  97  73 /  30  20  10  30
Little Rock   AR 103  74  96  74 /  50  30  10  50
Monticello AR    103  74  97  75 /  20  30  10  30
Mount Ida AR     102  71  96  72 /  30  20  10  20
Mountain Home AR  94  69  90  68 /  40  20  10  60
Newport AR        98  71  93  71 /  50  30   0  40
Pine Bluff AR    101  72  96  72 /  30  20  10  40
Russellville AR  100  72  94  72 /  30  20  10  40
Searcy AR        100  71  94  71 /  60  20   0  50
Stuttgart AR     100  73  95  73 /  50  30  10  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ052-053-062>069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74