713
FXUS64 KLZK 161721
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1121 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 631 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

-Well above normal temperatures continuing through early this
 week, with another warming trend towards record levels again on
 Tuesday

-Rain chances increase on Monday, although limited accumulations
 anticipated

-Showers and thunderstorms towards the middle to latter portions
 of the week will result in significant rain accumulations and may
 precede a flash flood threat across portions of western Arkansas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Mostly clear skies continue across the Natural State due to
persistent high pressure anchored across the southeastern U.S.
early this morning. Pressure falls will be noted throughout the
day today as developing low pressure across the Plains will
precede a mostly dry frontal passage across the region Monday into
Tuesday. Some light rain accumulations from this system will favor
central to northern Arkansas during this period.

As this initial trough exits to the east, rebuilding ridging will
cause temperatures to warm quickly again going into Tuesday. This
noticeable trend towards warmer temperatures Tuesday is due to a
more amplified ridge in response to strong Pacific troughing that
continues to slow in anticipation of the mid to late week rain
event. Due to this trend upward in temperatures, record highs may
come into play again on Tuesday, as NBM highs are reaching in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Cooler temperatures will then settle into the region heading into
the middle and latter portions of the week as ridging weakens
again ahead of a much deeper shortwave trough that`ll eject east
of the Rockies by mid-week. A much slower progression of this
trough and, in turn, a slower surface low movement continues to
push back the onset of precipitation across the state, especially
the heavier rainfall in association with the cold frontal passage,
which seems to be more delayed to the late Thursday and early
Friday timeframe.

The evolution of the latest guidance of this surface low suggests
initial frontal occlusion prior to reaching Arkansas, thus this
may jeopardize the robustness of convection along the cold front
as it moves across the state, resulting in a trend towards lower
rain amounts. This is currently the case when analyzing various
timeframe/durations of NBM percentile accumulations Wednesday
through Friday, which across the board seems to be around 1.00" or
more lower than previous forecasts. However, widespread 1-2" is
the most likely latest forecast scenario (50th percentile), where
western Arkansas remains the most likely area to see the highest
rain amounts. Higher end (90th percentile) amounts of 3-5" are
still in play, with localized higher amounts upwards of 8" still
not out of the question. Thus, these significant amounts will
continue to pose a flash flood threat favoring the Thursday-Friday
timeframe, but honing on the details will come into focus over
the next couple of days as guidance continues to align for this
event. The severe potential remains a bit ambiguous at this point,
but checking out vertical profiles shows some decent instability
in the warm sector ahead of the cold front, so will have to
continue to monitor trends and timing (such as time of day).

Beyond this event, the active weather pattern will seemingly
continue as the deep Pacific trough eventually migrates eastward,
presumably bringing more wet weather to the region sometime this
upcoming weekend and/or into early next week depending on the
timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period with MVFR
conditions possible Monday morning as light rain chances moves
through the state. Winds will be out of the northwest through the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     44  65  55  80 /   0  40  30  10
Camden AR         57  78  62  80 /  10  20  10   0
Harrison AR       46  63  54  78 /   0  20  30  10
Hot Springs AR    54  72  62  79 /  10  30  20  10
Little Rock   AR  52  69  60  79 /  10  30  20  10
Monticello AR     56  78  62  81 /  10  10  10   0
Mount Ida AR      54  75  63  79 /  10  20  20  10
Mountain Home AR  45  61  52  80 /   0  30  30  10
Newport AR        46  65  57  80 /   0  30  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     54  74  62  81 /  10  20  10  10
Russellville AR   51  67  57  80 /   0  30  30  10
Searcy AR         46  66  56  79 /   0  30  20  10
Stuttgart AR      52  70  61  80 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...73