Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
166 FXUS64 KLZK 111145 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 545 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 -Widespread freezing conditions Tuesday morning. -Gusty southwest winds expected through the day Tuesday, with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph, and gusts in excess of 30 to 35 mph. -Mainly dry and warming conditions will persist through the week, with temperatures moderating back to the mid 70s by Friday. -Rain chances could return to the forecast area by the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 08Z sfc obs showed area temps in the mid 20s to low 30s, with another widespread freeze underway. This wl be the last night of freezing temps thru the remainder of the fcst PD, as daily temp trends moderate upwards the next several days. Thru the day today, SWrly winds wl resume, w/ temps quickly warming into the low 60s. Of note, wl be a strong sfc pres gradient moving acrs the state, and driving turbulent condns, w/ fcst winds of 20 to 25 mph, and gusts near 30 to 35 mph, particularly over the MS River Delta region and NErn AR. Have gone forward with a Wind Advisory for portions of NErn AR this afternoon as such. For the remainder of the week, warming daily temps and dry/settled wx condns are fcst, w/ mean Ern US troughing and Wrn US ridging keeping upper-lvl subsidence in place over the Srn Cntrl US. A pattern change is still possible by the weekend, w/ Chc PoPs returning to the fcst as early as Sun, though better widespread chances are now more prevalent during the Mon-Tues timeframe. Uncertainties remain in the extended term, with dProg/dT`s of H500 flow largely variable during the Sun-Tues timeframe. As is now being advertised by the latest runs of deterministic GFS/ECMWF guidance, fcst H500 troughing moving acrs the Cntrl US is now more lagged...previously through the Sat-Sun timeframe...and is now w/in the Mon-Tues timeframe. W/ mean low-lvl Srly flow, modest moisture return is still expected prior to the arrival of the aforementioned trof. More widespread and higher Chc PoPs are included for much of the state thru Mon-Tues of next week, including some thunderstorms. However, greater details on any hazardous weather potential remains uncertain. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Expect VFR condns to prevail thru the new TAF PD... Gusty SWrly winds of 15-20 kts, w/ gusts near 25 kts wl persist acrs the FA thru Tues aftn, w/ LLWS concerns arising at most terminals after 12/00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 60 41 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 61 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 60 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 62 42 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 60 44 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 61 47 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 63 43 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 61 38 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 59 41 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 61 45 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 64 40 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 60 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 59 43 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-025. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...72