145
FXUS64 KLZK 140756
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
256 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Scattered PM showers/storms possible over Cntrl/S/SE Arkansas today

- Heat Advisories in effect for much of Arkansas Monday & Tuesday

- Expansive upper ridge to build back over Arkansas through Saturday

- Anomalously hot and dry conditions anticipated through Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Today, few to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
possible across mainly Cntrl/S/SE AR associated with abundant low-
level moisture coupled with peak diurnal heating. The main
thunderstorm hazard with any of the stronger convection would be
damaging straight-line winds. Otherwise, dry and hot conds can be
expected across the state. Highs today and Tuesday should range from
the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Factoring in the humid airmass in
place and heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 are expected
each afternoon across a large part of the state. Given this, a Heat
Advisory is in effect across all but NW and N-Cntrl AR through at
least Tuesday evening.

Heading through middle-to-late part of this week, a stout upper
ridge will become re-established across the Srn CONUS. During this
time, the center of high pressure will meander about the region
between features to the W and E of the ridge axis. Underneath the
ridge, highs will range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees each
day. Rain chances will remain minimal, or spotty at best, with heat
index values topping out between 95 and 110.

As we progress through middle part of September it becomes
increasingly difficult to reach 100 degrees due to decreasing
overhead sun angle, expected increase in average precip, and
decreasing amount of daylight with each passing day. To oppose these
natural cooling expectations one would expect, a strengthening and
amplifying ridge on the order of ~597-600 decameters will remain in
place across the region. For those curious about climatological
average temps for this time of year, Little Rock - Average Low 64,
Average High 86; Pine Bluff - Average Low 64, Average High 87;
Harrison - Average Low 59, Average High 82. In summary, average
highs and lows are expected to range from 10-15 degrees above
climatological average through Saturday.

While Sunday is pretty far out in the long term, there are some
indications that the ridge could shift Ewrd as an upper trough moves
into the nations mid-section. If this happens, rain chances could
increase locally while simultaneously lowering temps to end the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Mid/high clouds
are expected to increase in coverage on Mon afternoon. Mentioned
PROB30 over KLLQ for PM SHRA. PoPs should diminish near/just after
sunset. Winds will be S/SErly at around 10 kts or less on Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     98  74 101  74 /  10  10  10   0
Camden AR        100  72  98  73 /  20  10  10   0
Harrison AR       94  73  96  73 /  10   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    98  74  98  74 /  20  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  99  76  99  77 /  20  10  10   0
Monticello AR     98  75  98  75 /  30  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      99  72  98  72 /  20  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  94  72  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
Newport AR        97  75  99  75 /   0   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     98  73  97  74 /  20  10  10   0
Russellville AR   99  74 100  74 /  20   0  10   0
Searcy AR         99  73 100  73 /  20  20  10   0
Stuttgart AR     100  76 100  76 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70