803
FXUS64 KLZK 040621
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
121 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

-A warm start with seasonable temperatures today (Thursday)
 peaking in the mid 80s to mid 90s from north to south across the
 state and during the day on Friday topping out in the upper 70s
 to upper 90s as a cold front moves across the state and cooler
 air begins to funnel into northwest and north-central Arkansas.

-Significant pattern change Friday evening into Saturday as a steep,
 slow moving cold front moves across the state.

-Rain and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon/evening
 through Saturday evening behind along and behind the cold front.

-A much cooler airmass behind the front will usher in temperatures that
 will be well-below normal beginning Friday afternoon into early
 next week.

-Latest model guidance indicates that Friday night events such as
 Friday night high school football games will have a decent chance (30%
 to 50%) of experiencing rain and isolated thunderstorms
 statewide.

-Latest model guidance indicates for Saturday`s events such as the
 college football games in Little Rock and Conway respectfully,
 the Arkansas/Arkansas State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff/Central
 Arkansas contests appear to have the best opportunity for rain
 and an isolated thunderstorm during pre-game and tailgating
 before chances diminish greatly at kickoff and should transpire
 into a mostly dry affair during and post-game at both venues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

THURSDAY (Today) INTO FRIDAY:

Northwesterly flow remains in place over Arkansas due to a broad
upper lvl ridge across the Western region of the CONUS and a trof
across the Great Lakes region of the CONUS. Despite a few impulses
within this flow regime, limited moisture will keep Thursday dry
across the Natural State.

Into Friday, a cold front will begin to move across the state from
north to south throughout the day and rain with isolated
thunderstorm chances will accompany along and behind this anafront
with PoP chances increasing Friday evening into Friday night across
Arkansas. However, before the arrival of this cold front and colder
airmass behind the boundary, compressional heating along and just
ahead of the frontal boundary will allow locations in central and
southern Arkansas to top out in the low to upper 90s for high
temperatures on Friday afternoon.

SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY:

A major upper lvl pattern shift will take place late Friday and have
significant repercussions on our forecast into the weekend and the
following workweek. The upper lvl ridge over the Western region of
the CONUS will begin to flatten out and allow an upper lvl trof to
dig into the Mid-West region of the CONUS extending southward into
the Mid-South region of the CONUS. Expect an increased opportunity
across the state for rain and a few thunderstorms to develop Friday
night into the day on Saturday.

Model guidance is in exceptional agreement regarding Thursday and
Friday as well as with the placement, movement, and timing of the
cold front across Arkansas on Friday. However, ensemble members from
both GFS and ECMWF driven solutions begin to diverge slightly with
the ECMWF solutions presenting a drier and quicker progressing area
of PoP chances into the day on Saturday with the GFS beginning to
trend toward the ECMWF solutions, but remains slightly slower to exit
the state and increases PoP chances along with total rainfall
amounts.

Expect agreement to likely become clear in the next 24 hour window;
however, given the significant football games and other Saturday
events taking place it appears latest forecast guidance will keep
the greatest chance for rain and a few isolated thunderstorms
possible on Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon before
chances begin to greatly diminish into Saturday late afternoon and
Saturday evening reserved to southern Arkansas during later Saturday
into Saturday night. In hindsight, those attending the
aforementioned football games will want to still plan on the
possibility of rain and an isolated thunderstorms (predominately
before kickoff), especially if tailgating before the game, but
expect improving conditions by kickoff and during the game as
chances for precipitation will lower significantly.

Into the remainder of the weekend (Sunday) through Tuesday, expect
dry and fair weather conditions to be present across the state as
sfc high pressure moves into the region along with a continental
airmass which will lead to temperatures with respect to morning lows
and afternoon highs to be upwards of nearly 10 degrees below normal
for early September. Into Wednesday, the dry conditions are forecast
to continue with temperatures gradually increasing to seasonal
averages for early September, a trend expected to continue to finish
out the workweek moving toward mid-September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Expect VFR flight category to be across most sites for the entire
forecast period from early Thursday morning through early Friday
morning. The only exception will be VSBY early Thursday morning may
drop to MVFR category across the northern terminals of KHRO and
KBPK; included a TEMPO group to capture this possibility as
confidence is low. After sunrise on Thursday morning, expect VSBY to
improve to VFR flight category. Surface winds will become
established out of the southwest later Thursday morning before
becoming light and variable across most terminals later Thursday
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  66  92  57 /   0   0  10  60
Camden AR         94  69  95  64 /   0   0   0  40
Harrison AR       85  65  81  54 /   0  10  20  60
Hot Springs AR    93  69  94  62 /   0   0  10  60
Little Rock   AR  91  70  93  62 /   0   0  10  50
Monticello AR     95  72  97  66 /   0   0   0  30
Mount Ida AR      92  71  91  62 /   0   0  10  60
Mountain Home AR  86  64  84  55 /   0  10  10  50
Newport AR        88  67  95  59 /   0   0  10  60
Pine Bluff AR     93  69  96  63 /   0   0  10  40
Russellville AR   93  68  92  61 /   0   0  10  60
Searcy AR         90  67  93  60 /   0   0  10  60
Stuttgart AR      91  70  95  62 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74