918
FXUS64 KMAF 042326
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

- Cooler temperatures and increasing chances of rain are expected
  Friday through the weekend, with the greatest chances (30-60
  percent) anticipated Saturday night into Sunday.

- Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are forecast during the
  early to middle part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 236 PM  CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Weak upper-level ridging continues to extend across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon, while a surface trough is
developing from the Texas panhandle into the Permian Basin and Trans
Pecos region. High level cloud cover has temporarily thinned out
over much of our area early this afternoon, with mostly sunny
skies/dry conditions prevailing and temperatures heating up into
the 90s over many locations. Regional satellite imagery shows a
plume of moisture and increased cloud cover spreading into
southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico well ahead of Tropical
Storm Lorena centered just west of the Baja region of Mexico this
afternoon.

The upper-level ridge axis will continue to shift to our east this
evening and gradually break down tonight as longwave troughing
deepens over the central/northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great
Lakes region. Westerly flow aloft will become more prevalent over
the southern Plains (including our forecast area) Friday into Friday
night along the southern fringe of the longwave trough axis and
also well ahead of the remnant circulation/trough axis associated
with Lorena that is forecast to parallel the coast of Baja
through Friday night. Deep layer moisture associated with Lorena
will subsequently be drawn northeastward into portions of
southeast New Mexico and west Texas Friday into Friday night. The
increasing moisture/precipitable water values along with weak
ascent spreading into our region will support mention of at least
a low (20-30 percent) chance of rain showers and a few
thunderstorms in the forecast across our area Friday into Friday
night. Any rainfall that does occur currently looks to be
relatively light and spotty in nature Friday-Friday night. Will
keep the best POPs (~25-30 percent) aligned across western
portions of our area (including southeast New Mexico, the
Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor, and Marfa Plateau)
during this time frame. Low to mid level cloud cover should
otherwise thicken across much of the area Friday. High temperatures
should trend cooler with readings currently only forecast to
reach into the 80s over southeast New Mexico, the western Permian
Basin, and Trans Pecos region, while readings in the mountains
may not get out of the 70s. Highs along the southern Big Bend/Rio
Grande and Lower Trans Pecos should reach into the 90s. A cold
front is forecast to push into the Permian Basin, southeast New
Mexico Plains, and potentially into the Trans Pecos by late Friday
night. Low temperatures are forecast to trend cooler in the upper
50s to mid 60s over these locations behind the boundary, while
readings along our southern zones remain warmer in the upper 60s
to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM  CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Behind the cold front, temperatures are expected to drop well below
normal and rainfall chances increase this weekend. Saturday, the
cold front is currently forecast to set up from southeast New Mexico
to portions of the Upper Trans Pecos. This combined with embedded
shortwaves moving through the upper-level flow and remnant moisture
from Lorena will increase rain chances (20-50%) Saturday. Cold air
advection behind the front and abundant cloud cover bring afternoon
highs down into the low to mid 80s for most (70s in higher terrain
and perhaps some portions of the northern Permian Basin), making
Saturday potentially the coolest day during the long term period.
Additional shortwaves aloft move over southeast New Mexico and west
Texas Sunday as the upper-level ridge axis becomes centered to our
west. The cold front sags a little further south into the Stockton
Plateau/Lower Trans Pecos region. The latest forecast soundings show
PWAT values between 1.5" and 1.6", putting this around the 95th
percentile. However, there is still some uncertainty in how much
remnant moisture will make it this far as there are some major
discrepancies between model guidance. As such, have brought PoPs
down some. With that said, the best chances (30-60%) for rainfall
this period are forecast to be on Sunday. We will continue to
monitor trends and be on the look out for localized flash flood
potential this weekend. By early next week, the upper-level ridge
builds back over our area. Increasing thicknesses should result in a
warming and drying trend. At this time, there are low (10-40%)
chances of rain Monday before falling even further (10-20%) Tuesday.
Afternoon highs Monday and Tuesday slowly tick up to near normal.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

VFR conditions continue the next 24 hours. High cirrus CIGs will
thicken and gradually descend to BKN100 by 12Z. Winds will mostly
remain below 10KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  89  62  80 /   0  20  20  20
Carlsbad                 72  81  65  83 /  10  30  20  30
Dryden                   74  94  73  90 /   0  10  20  30
Fort Stockton            73  86  67  84 /   0  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           63  71  59  75 /  20  30  30  50
Hobbs                    71  81  60  81 /  10  20  20  20
Marfa                    63  77  59  80 /  10  30  30  40
Midland Intl Airport     74  88  65  82 /   0  20  20  20
Odessa                   73  86  65  81 /   0  20  20  20
Wink                     71  85  65  83 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...10