676
FXUS64 KMAF 291748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Numerous showers/storms from Terrell County through the Stockton Plateau
  expected beginning 12 pm through 3 pm, spreading north into the
  Permian Basin 3 pm through 7 pm.

- Highest chance (70% or greater) of showers/storms and flash
  flooding from sunset this evening through midnight tonight.

- Drier weather this weekend, followed by windy conditions early
  next week, accompanied by a return to cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Skies will remain mostly cloudy with persistent low cloud decks
as the remnants of TC Vance move in from the southwest and a mid
to upper disturbance over the Desert SW provide widespread lift.
High- res CAMs depict numerous showers/storms lifting north from
the Big Bend and developing north from the Marfa Plateau into
Stockton Plateau 12 pm through 3 pm, and then much of the Permian
Basin from 3 pm through 7 pm. With widespread clouds from lift
over the area and TC Vance weakening rapidly to a mainly mid-level
circulation aloft, near surface instability will be limited as
highs remain in the mid 60s to mid 70s F. As a result, SPC only
has us outlooked in a general t`storm area. However, with strongly
veering winds and at least 35 knots of shear throughout the
atmosphere apparent on model forecast soundings, a brief damaging
wind gust or spinup in any stronger showers/storms still cannot be
ruled out.

The bigger story however, will be flash flooding. A Flood Watch
remains in effect from this afternoon through Friday evening and
has been expanded to encompass the entire area, due to heavy
rainfall of 2" to 3" that fell over western higher terrain
yesterday. Places with poor drainage such as low lying and urban
regions, sloped terrain, and places that experience repeated
rounds of heavy rains will all be most at risk for flooding
impacts. PWATs increase above the 90th percentile for this time of
year from the Big Bend through Permian Basin, with up to 1.5" on
model forecast soundings. Lower PWATs still 1.2" to 1.4" farther
west from the Presidio Valley into SE NM plains will still run
above average for this time of year. Therefore, there will be
plenty of moisture to work with to present a flash flooding threat
there as well, especially given saturated soils due to heavy
rains yesterday. Peak timing of heaviest rain will likely be from
7 pm through midnight. During this period, a greater than 60%
chance of showers/storms is present for much of the area, even
though not everyone is guaranteed to see rainfall. Ensembles
depict widespread 0.5" to 1.0" from the Presidio Valley into Eddy
County Plains, and 1" to 3" from Terrell County through the
Permian Basin by Friday morning, with high (70% or greater)
probabilities of at least 1.5" to 2.5" for the northern Permian
Basin - where the most widespread and heaviest rain is expected
Thursday evening through Friday. Lows tonight fall into the mid
50s to lower 60s F tonight as winds shift to the north and
bringing in drier air behind the remnants of TC Vance lifting off
to the northeast. As rain chances taper off from southwest to
northeast and decrease below medium (35% to 45%) for the Permian
Basin by Friday afternoon, continued widespread cloud cover keeps
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s F, apart from upper 70s to
lower 80s F along the Rio Grande. Lows Friday night remain similar
to tonight under light and variable winds. A quieter but more
active upper air pattern then follows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A drier weekend is in store, before another mid to upper storm
system early next week brings strong winds across the area. Highs
Saturday rise into the 70s F, 80s F along the Rio Grande basin
under clearer skies and renewed light southerly winds. A low (less
than 30%) chance of showers/storms over the Marfa Plateau into
Lower Trans Pecos from daytime heating of elevated terrain is
expected afternoon/evening, with storms diminishing after sunset
while lows fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s F range. A more
progressive weather pattern beginning late weekend Sunday brings
another round of higher rain chances (above 30%) Sunday for
northern parts of the area, although the best forcing and
therefore heaviest rainfall are likely to remain to the north of
the area. Highs warm back into the mid 70s to mid 80s F by Sunday,
with warmer temperatures continuing through Monday. Winds shift
from southerly to westerly from Sunday night through Monday
morning, with winds 35 mph or greater indicated for the
Guadalupes/Delawares. These winds may persist through Tuesday,
before cooler temperatures (upper 60s to lower 70s F highs, mid
40s to mid 50s F lows) and lighter winds return to the area by the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Expect deteriorating conditions this afternoon into the overnight
hours. If not already MVFR, all terminals will see these
conditions soon with periodic IFR as rain intensity increases
after 30/00Z. Winds will remain generally from the southeast to
east. Expect numerous amendments through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  69  58  76 / 100 100  20  10
Carlsbad                 57  72  56  75 /  90  20  20  10
Dryden                   60  73  61  75 / 100  40  30   0
Fort Stockton            60  74  59  78 / 100  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           54  66  54  69 /  80  10  20  10
Hobbs                    55  67  53  72 / 100  50  10  10
Marfa                    53  71  52  74 /  90  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     59  69  58  74 / 100  80  10  10
Odessa                   59  69  59  74 / 100  70  10  10
Wink                     59  72  58  75 / 100  30  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for Andrews-Borden-Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-
     Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29