826
FXUS64 KMAF 182346
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
646 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms could produce
  locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning this
  afternoon. Localized flash flooding will be possible in the
  heaviest storms that develop.

- Rain chances persist in the forecast through Tuesday evening,
  mainly favoring the western higher terrain. Localized flash
  flooding remains of concern in the event of occasionally heavy
  rainfall.

- Warmer and drier conditions return areawide by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Current satellite and radar imagery shows some leftover cloud
cover from earlier this morning along with developing storms near
the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region. The upper low looks to
be located across the northwest Permian Basin, while other
mesoscale low features are prevalent across portions of west
Texas. These features will continue to supply lift for additional
shower/development. The highest coverage of showers/storms look to
be for areas west of the Pecos River, while slightly less
coverage across portions of the northern Permian Basin and far
southeast New Mexico than previously indicated by high resolution
models. Regardless, there remains the threat of flash flooding in
areas that have received significant rainfall. The 12Z MAF
sounding showed a near-record daily PWAT (1.73"), slow storm
motions, and a moist vertical profile especially in the mid-levels
of the atmosphere. These parameters indicate that showers/storms
will be efficient heavy rainfall producers, therefore, increasing
the flash flood threat. Daytime heating this afternoon will mix
out moisture in the lower levels where forecast soundings show
inverted-V profiles and sufficient DCAPE supporting the threat of
strong downbursts (gusty winds) with the strongest storms.

Tonight, the upper low remains over west Texas and far southeast New
Mexico. Like last night and earlier this morning, remnant
showers/storms are forecast to linger mainly across far West Texas
and the higher terrain. Overnight cloud cover once again will keep
lows in the 60s to mid 70s for most. Tomorrow, the aforementioned
upper low shifts southwest near portions of the Upper Trans Pecos by
the afternoon. A similar setup is in store where scattered
showers/storms are expected across portions of the forecast area
with the highest rain chances over the Davis, Guadalupe Mountains,
and Big Bend region. Heavy rainfall leading to localized flash
flooding with gusty winds remain the primary concerns. Similar
high temperatures are anticipated both today and Sunday ranging
from the 80s to low 90s for most locations.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The previous forecast package remains unchanged. The upper-level low
continues to shift west early next week. As a result, additional
chances of scattered rain/storms are forecast each afternoon with
greatest coverage mainly across the higher terrain and far West
Texas through Tuesday. Surface troughing extending from the Rockies
will also provide extra lift for shower/storm development. These
chances will gradually decrease heading into Tuesday as the upper
low pivots farther away from the region. Temperatures are also going
to return back into the 90s for most early in the week. Ensemble
guidance suggest PWAT values ranging between 1-2" across our region
through Tuesday evening, signaling a continued heavy rainfall
threat. Given some areas have already seen several rounds of
rainfall, the risk of flash flooding shall continue to be a
concern in the event of occasional heavy rainfall. The threat
itself is not expected to be as extensive as previous days. By mid
next week, an upper-level ridge becomes the dominant weather
feature favoring much warmer and drier conditions areawide.
Guidance has been trending towards many locations hitting the
triple digits by late next week.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue to impact areas over
far southeast New Mexico and west Texas over the next few hours.
New development near KHOB and KMAF along outflow boundaries may
produce TSRA development near both terminals this evening. Expect
gusty/erratic winds and visibility reductions due to heavy rain
near convection. VFR otherwise continues outside of storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  90  70  93 /  30  20  10  10
Carlsbad                 69  92  70  92 /  40  40  20  30
Dryden                   72  93  73  94 /  20  30  10  10
Fort Stockton            69  90  70  90 /  30  50  20  60
Guadalupe Pass           65  83  65  82 /  50  60  30  60
Hobbs                    66  89  66  90 /  40  30  20  20
Marfa                    60  84  60  83 /  40  60  30  70
Midland Intl Airport     69  88  70  90 /  30  30  10  10
Odessa                   69  88  70  90 /  30  30  10  20
Wink                     69  91  70  91 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21